The final Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll has Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama opening up an 11 point lead over Republican Sen. John McCain — and it’s a sign of the increasing nervousness of pollsters over polls lopsidedly showing an Obama victory that the press release contains some journalistic hedges:
Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 11.4 points over Republican John McCain in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll — up from a 7.1 point advantage in yesterday’s report. The final tally now stands at 54.1% for Obama compared to 42.7% for McCain.
It quotes Zogby with this this statement with all of its qualifiers:
Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change.
In recent weeks, Obama has been ahead and has maintained a lead in so many polls that if there is an upset, it will dwarf Democrat Harry Truman’s 1948 come-from-behind-victory over Thomas E. Dewey. And the polling industry would be in for a rougher ride than many Democrats who already have visions of Obama’s inauguration.
If this turns out to be the stunning victory for Obama, he will have done it with large leads among independents (24 points), women (20 points), moderates (32%) and those who registered to vote in the last six months (30 points). He also wins 91% support from Democrats and leads in nearly every age group with the exception of those age 55 to 69, where McCain leads by just a half point. McCain holds the support of 85% of Republicans and 73% of conservatives. He also leads by 7 points among whites.
And the battleground states? Zogby finds Obama is “holding his own” but some are extremely tight and one is tied:
–Pennsylvania: Obama 51.2% McCain 41.4%
–Ohio: Obama 49.4% McCain 47.4%
–Virginia: Obama 51.7% McCain 45.3%
–Nevada: Obama 53.2% McCain 42.4%
–Florida: Obama 49.2% McCain 48.0%
–Missouri: Obama 48.8% McCain 48.8%
–North Carolina McCain leads 49.5% Obama 49.1%
–Indiana McCain leads 50.4% Obama 45.1%
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.