After Iowa, a few fearless predictions…
#1: Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee for president. Democrats in Iowa chose among candidates they all more or less liked and whose views on the major issues aren’t all that different. Their judgment in favor of Barack Obama was, in part, a judgment that Senator Clinton, dogged by “high negatives,” at least 45% of the electorate saying they will never vote for her, cannot be elected even in an election that is the Democrats to lose.
#2: Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president. As I said here, the desire for victory is so strong among Democrats, the Iowa results, where an African-American candidate for president won among a overwhelmingly predominant white electorate and rode to victory with the supprt of independents, young people, and Republicans, will convince Democrats in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and elsewhere to get behind Obama. Clinton and former Senator John Edwards will go to New Hampshire and perhaps, Michigan and South Carolina, to campaign. But their campaigns effectively ended tonight.
#3: The Republican ticket in 2008 will be either Huckabee-McCain or McCain-Huckabee. I harbor the hope that as these two fight for the GOP nomination, they will do so with civility and magnanimity.
#4: Mitt Romney, as I said here, must win in New Hampshire. That primary always was a must-win for Romney because as a Massachusetts pol, he has an overwhelming advantage going into the Granite State. New Hampshire for Massachusetts pols has been what Fenway Park is for the Boston Red Sox. Following his massive loss in Iowa, a state where he staked a claim long ago, a loss in New Hampshire will bring an end to his bid for the presidency.