At one point after President Obama’s re-election, I thought it possible for the Democrats to gain eight House seats. The President’s high approvals, as well as the improving economy and the GOP struggling to find it’s place would seem to add fuel to the momentum. But Democrats as of late have been besieged by declining poll numbers for the President, and a series of recruitment setbacks. Added to the fact that they’ll be playing defense in a number of districts, this suggests it will be difficult for House Democrats to post even a net gain of a single seat, let alone make major gains.
As the year began, Democrats thought they had convinced Jim Graves and Brandon Mullen, who barely lost to Jackie Walorskia and Michelle Bachman in ’12, to make second bids for the seat. But Mullen decided not to run and Bachmann’s retirement convinced Graves that a less controversial Republican would hold the seat. So he dropped out as well. So did wealthy businessmen who were plotting challenges to Iowa’s Tom Latham and Minnesota’s John Kline. While those two are not super-high on the vulnerability scale, the drop-outs did little to help Democrats expand the playing field.
Democrats have seen several “A” level recruits come forward in other districts but taking them over is not guaranteed. And they’ve got problems with some of their own team members.
As such, mid-way through the first half of the cycle, let’s look at the most vulnerable House members, shall we?
Republican Gary Miller, who won a fluke in a 58% Obama district in a southern California district, remains the most endangered member, and his addition to the Congressional “Red to Blue” program belies the fact that even his own party considers him to be in grave danger. Democrats are all but guarantee this one. But little else. In fact, Miller’s ranking on the vulnerability scale is followed by three Democrats: Scott Peters of California, Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, and John Tierney of Massachusetts.
Peter’s sits in a district that leans Democratic at only the slightest level, and against Carl DiMaio, who almost became San Diego’s Mayor last year, is assured of facing a well-known contender. Speaking of that election, the man DiMaio lost to, Bob Filner, is currently facing sexual harassment charges, and he endorsed Peters in the primary. The scandal will not be in the news next November, but the Filner association doesn’t help Peters, who also gained negative publicity by his handling of the city’s pension before coming to Congress. Mark this as a tossup.
All but a handful of voters have opinions of Shea-Porter and she knows that to win, she must positively influence the few who don’t. Despite regaining the seat over a week incumbent last year (having lost in ’10 four years after scoring the biggest upset in recent memory), there are some segments of NH-1 who just don’t have a comfort level with Shea-Porter, as backed up by a recent poll that shows her trailing a generic R. The threat of a GOP takeover of Tierney’s district would diminish should he not be the Democratic nominee. I suspect that, whether via a retirement or primary challenge, he won’t be. Tierney was considered a dead-man walking last year to Richard Tisei, before the Obama/Warren wind pulled him by with 1% to spare. But the increasingly probable presence of Tisei still looms large, and this is a mixed district by Massachusetts standards, which means Tisei could still thwart Democratic plans to keep the “Bay State’s delegation all Democratic.
After Massachusetts-6, the next most vulnerable seat would seem to belong to Mike Coffman. The Colorado Republican, whose fate also was up in the air last year, will face perhaps the Democrats biggest get, Ex-House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Many Democrats credit Romanoff as being the architect of the party’s legislative majorities, and against Coffman, he’ll be taking on someone whose solidly conservative record and rhetoric suited him fine in the old district, but who is increasingly out of step in boundaries that increased the Democratic performance by about 8%.
Arizona hosted three competitive races in ’12, which saw Democrats narrowly come out on the winning side. But none hit 50%, and these are quintessential swing districts which, in a mid-term, makes their fate anything but certain. Of the three, Ron Barber, who succeeded Gabby Giffords, was considered to be the surest Democratic hold. But his win over Air Force General Martha McSally actually proved the closest of the three, and McSally is running hard a second time. Barber, like virtually no one, lacks the exuberance on the campaign trail of his former boss, but is see as deeply sincere. The question is whether he’ll have against the vivacious McSally.
Ann Kirkpatrick beat a veteran of the Arizona legislature after a somewhat rocky race, but may be aided by a Republican fumble. The calendar is still early and the party may not tap someone too far to the right as it’s standard bearer, but whom they ultimately choose is critical to Kirkpatrick’s odds. The third Democrat, Kyrsten Sinema appears to be in the strongest shape, as her district actually leans Democratic. But she will likely face a seasoned opponent.
lllinois may be among the most competitive seats, starting with two rematches. Brad Schneider and Cheri Bustos wrested their seats from Bob Dold and Bobby Schilling respectively with help from the top of the ticket. While Senator Dick Durbin will run strong, the Governor’s race is Quinn’s renomination Also impacted may be the Democrats ability to pick off Rodney Davis in Illinois-13. The district went for Obama handsomely in ‘-08 but veered against him in ’12. But Democratic nominee David Gill upset a primary favorite and struggled to get the Democratic apparatus behind him. This time, ex-Judge Ann Callis was recruited into the race and while, she is not assured of the nomination, will give Davis a run for the tons of money he has raised if she succeeds
Besides Illinois, the other states Democrats made significant gains was California, where they converted four Republican seats to their column. The GOP will be going forward full steam to get them back. The first-time is their best chance. But barring another 2010 like wave, Ami Bera, Julia Brownley, and Raul Ruiz should be okay.
Florida is also a state to watch. A federal Judge may order a redo of the Congressional boundaries under the 2010 voter-passed Fair Amendments Initiative. If so, that would endanger Daniel Webster, who barely held off Val Demmings in a district tailor-made for him. Steve Southerland will have his hands full against Gwendolyn Graham, the daughter of the renowned former Senator and Governor, but she may face a primary, and Graham must overcome the Tallahassee/rural area split when it comes to voting. The party also hopes perennial retiree-watch Bill Young will finally pull the trigger. But Democrats have their own worry. Freshman Pat Murphy unseated the bombastic Allen West by a razor-tight margin, and will be hunkered down big-time against a less tempestuous nominee.
Benishek and Steve King appeared to clear their toughest hurdles last year beating top-recruited candidates. But the emergence of two veterans reveal a different course, which may be what the Democrats need. But King’s ability to continue putting his foot in his mouth, and the possible emergence of a strong foe may mean trouble for both. Pennsylvania Democrats are high on another veteran, Kevin Strouse against Mike Fitzpatrick, but Bucks County likes it’s incumbents to be local and Strouse until recently lived out of the area.
The four remaining genuinely conservative “Blue Dogs” will be tested as well. Not since 1994 has Collin Peterson broken a sweat for re-election, but Republicans hope the State Senator they’ve landed to challenge him may force him into retirement. Peterson insists otherwise and could still be seriously tied down, but he’ll relieve Democrats if he decides to go forward. John Barrow proved his survival skills last year against a Republican who disintegrated, he has proven his campaign skills in conservative turf and should be favored.
But Mike McIntyre and Jim Matheson both held their seats by the smallest margins of any incumbent last year — fewer than 1,000 votes, and in David Rouzer and Mia Love, will be facing repeat engagements. Rouzer acknowledges that a bloody primary hampered him last time out, and is carefully studying his previous race from top-to-bottom. But McIntyre has also had time to get acclimated with the new parts of his district that were added to beat him. Matheson’s survival in the face of Mitt Romney’s win was nothing short of amazing, and Love won’t have that at her back this time. But he still holds the most Republican district to be held by a Democrat, and further backlash against the administration could give him problems.
In Sean Eldridge and Pam Byrnes, New York’s Chris Gibson and Michigan’s Tim Walberg are up against strong foes with lots of money and a known quantity respectively, but district dynamics suggest they may have to wait for higher Presidential year to finish the job. And Nevada Democrats have enlisted a familiar name, Erin Bilbray-Kohn, daughter of a former Vegas area Congressman, to go after Joe Heck. The two-term Congressman beat a less than stellar opponent in swing territory that Obama carried twice. But Democrats also must watch Tim Bishop in New York and Nick Rahall in West Virginia.
The bottom line: it is still early and Democrats have time to defy the math and gain a seat or two. But it would be less than they had hoped and would still put them well within reach of majority status.