In recent hours, prospects for an end to fighting in Lebanon have worsened and agreement at the UN Security Council may not be possible for several days, if not longer. If nothing happens, the war could continue for several weeks.
One reason is breathtaking cynicism on the part of Arab States advising Lebanon who have rejected a resolution that was almost complete. They would like to prolong the war because of the heavy cost to Israel in blood and treasure.
The main influences on Lebanon are the Sunni Muslim governments of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. They feel that Israel is being weakened at no cost to them and, with some luck, Israel might also succeed in weakening Shiite influence in Lebanon by damaging Hezbollah. So they win on both counts.
The price of these maneuvers is the continuing suffering of Lebanon’s Shiites who comprise about 40% of the population. The Lebanese government argues that protecting the Shiites would mean fighting Israel or forcing the Hezbollah to lay down arms. It is incapable of doing either.
But there is a third alternative. It could accept whatever Security Council resolution immediately stops hostilities because that is the best way to immediately protect Lebanon’s Shiites. Instead, it has given in to pressure from the Sunni Arab countries none of which is losing a single life or dollar as south Lebanon burns.
The other Arabs rejected the resolution to make a point of “principle� that inevitably prolongs the war. They insist Israel’s army must withdraw immediately instead of leaving when south Lebanon is stabilized under a new system of governance.
This “principle� is a trick to prevent peace at the quickest possible pace between Lebanon and Israel. If the aim is to stop hostilities immediately, whether or not Israel withdraws at the same time is irrelevant. It is significant only if the aim is to score propaganda points to make the global community believe that Israel had to leave because it was the aggressor.
As the war continues, those other Arab countries hope TV images of Lebanon’s destruction will turn world audiences further against Israel and the US. For them, prolonging indecisive wars in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank are the best ways to keep Israel and American off balance in their region. With Iraq smoldering in the South and Lebanon in the North, they can squeeze the US and Europe to the maximum for political and economic concessions for their own purposes.
Peace in Israel would substantially cut the political influence of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in Washington and European capitals. It would also make Iran and Syria lesser players in the region. The US may again be a country liked around the world for its positive contributions to the family of nations. How then would those repressive Arab kingdoms and dictatorships survive?