Like many southern states, Virginia was solidly-Democratic from the end of Reconstruction through the mid 1960s. It then evolved into a Republican-leaning state but now may be sliding back towards the Democrats though it still retains a GOP tint.
President: Obama is making this one of his target states and certainly, of the GOP southern states, it is the best possibility to flip. Had he chosen either Governor Kaine or Senator to be Warner then this state would probably be leaning Obama but for now I am giving McCain a slight edge.
I know many think Obama will benefit from the Democratic-trending DC suburbs but I suspect Obama will run badly in the military-oriented areas of the state.
Leans Republican
Senate: One of my favorite members of the US Senate is John Warner but, sadly, he has chosen to retire, depriving the GOP of a good moderate bridge-building type of figure.
However, in-trade the Democrats will gain one in former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to John). Warner has been incredibly- popular and will easily defeat former Governor Gilmore.
Safe Democrat (pickup)
House: Republicans currently hold 8 seats to 3 for the Democrats. All 3 Democratic seats look to be safe along with 7 of the GOP seats.
In the 11th District, incumbent Tom Davis (R) is retiring after seven terms. Thanks to personal popularity and a moderate record, Davis has kept this suburban district for the Republicans but that is not going to last.
In every recent election from President to city council, the area has voted increasingly Democratic. The beneficiary of this will be Fairfax County Chairman Gerald Connolly (D) who will win over customs inspector Keith Fimian.
Safe Democrat (pickup)