We have now finished all 50 states and can detail the projected outcomes for each of the categories.
President: In the Presidential race Obama is projected to defeat McCain by a margin of 293-245 or a gain of 41 votes over 2004. In the popular vote, I expect Obama to win by 1-2 percentage points.
Senate: Democrats will gain five seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia.
This will give them 54 seats plus one for Independent/Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont for a total of at least 55 seats.
Republicans will hold on to at least 44 seats in the next Congress.
The seat of Senator Joe Lieberman remains in doubt since rumors are he may be tossed out of the Democratic caucus for speaking at the GOP convention. If so, he would likely give the GOP a 45th seat.
House: Democrats will retain the House with a 244-191 margin or a gain of seven seat.
Governor: Democrats will pick up one seat (Missouri) to hold 29 seats to 21 for the Republicans.
Of course, these numbers are based on my assigning every state/seat to either the GOP or Democratic camp and a number of these seats are closer to toss- ups than anything else so I also ran some numbers based on the leaning states/seats being somehow in play.
President: Senator Obama has 179 solid EVs and 114 leaning votes while Senator McCain has 132 solid and 113 leaning to him. There are three possible scenarios I analyzed: 1) 2/3rds of the leaners go to Obama, 2) 2/3rds go to McCain and 3) they split evenly. Obviously, these scenarios are theoretical since there may not be a combination of states to fit the numbers but it gives you an idea.
If the votes split 2-1 for Obama, then he wins 331-207.
If the votes split 2-1 for McCain, then he wins 284-254.
If they split evenly, Obama wins 293-246.
So, regardless of how things go, the race heavily-favors Obama.
Senate: Counting seats that are not up this year, Democrats have 51 safe seats compared to just 37 for the Republicans with 12 seats in the leaning category (11 of them Republican and only 1 Democrat).
If they split 2-1 Democratic, then they would lead 58-41-1 (so a 60 seat filibuster proof majority is unlikely)
If they split 2-1 Republican, then the Democrats would still lead 54-45-1 (Lieberman)
If they split evenly, then the Democrats would lead 55-44-1
So it is certain that the Democrats will hold the Senate
House: Democrats have 218 safe seats (enough for control) compared to 165 Republicans. 52 seats are in the leaning category (interestingly 26 for each party).
If they split 2-1 for the Democrats, then they control the House 253-182 (a gain of 17 seats and a 71 seat majority)
If they split 2-1 for the Republicans, then the Democrats control the House 236-199 (no change and a 37 seat majority)
If the seats split evenly, then the Democrats control the House 244-191 (a gain of 7 seats and a 53 seat majority)
Again, it seems certain the Democrats will retain the House.
So the bottom line is that, even if the trend moves to heavily-favor the GOP (which is unlikely), the Democrats will still retain the Congress and probably pick up the White House.