Oregon is not only one of the prettiest states in the Union but also a potential swing state. Although it has not voted for a Republican in 20 years, most of the contests recently have been close.
President: The Republicans will work hard to make sure that the Obama campaign has to fight to keep this state in their camp, but I suspect that the effort will fall short. The state has tended to vote Democratic and this does not seem to be a year for it to switch
Leans Democrat
Senate: Democrats have been hoping that this will be one of the seats to push them to their dream of holding 60 seats in 2009 but so far it has not panned out. Incumbent Gordon Smith (R) is being challenged by House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D).
Polls have shown Smith with a small but steady lead and so far the Democrats have not found the key to beating him, a moderate who has been critical of President Bush. At the same time Oregon is a small enough state for a surge to push Merkley over.
But for now I will lean to Smith.
Leans Republican
House: Democrats seem to be secure in the 1st, 3rd and 4th while the GOP is likely to hold on to the 2nd.
In the 5th District, incumbent Darlene Hooley (D) is retiring after 6 terms. She won by a fairly close margin in 2006 so the GOP will target this as one of their few pickup opportunities.
State Senator Kurt Schrader will try to hold the seat for the Democrats while 2006 nominee Mike Erickson will stand for the Republicans. This is likely to remain a close race to the end but, given the Democratic nature of Oregon, I am going to lean to their retaining this seat.
Leans Democrat