New Jersey is one of those states that likes to flirt with one party during the campaign but always ends up going with the other side. In this case the jilted party is the Republicans and they will likely come up short again in November.
President: The last Republican to win the state (or even come close) was George Bush in 1988. This November will extend that losing streak to five.
Safe Democrat
Senate: Incumbent Frank Lautenberg (D) faced a strong challenge in the primary but will have little trouble beating Dick Zimmer in November. I do expect to see some polls showing Zimmer within striking distance but they are not going to pan out in November.
Safe Democrat
House: I think Democrats will hold on to at least 8 seats in November while Republicans can count on at least 3. The other 2, currently held by Republicans look to be major targets.
In the 3rd District incumbent Jim Saxton (R) is retiring after 12 terms. Democrats have tapped State Senator John Adler while the GOP nominated Christopher Myers, deputy mayor of Medford Township.
Saxton has won re-election with ease but the district generally votes with the Democrats. This contest could go either way but with a strong vote for Obama likely to boost turnout I am giving the Democrats an edge.
Leans Democrat (gain)
In the 7th district we have a largely similar situation with incumbent Mike Furgeson stepping down. Unlike Saxton he had several close races (winning with 49.5% of the vote in 2006). Democrats have tapped their 2006 nominee, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender and the GOP picked State Senator Leonard Lance.
Given her near win in 2006 and the boost from the Presidential race I think she has the edge here
Leans Democrat (gain)