Egypt took its first step today into a quagmire of violent internal conflicts after the army killed at least 51 Islamic activists and wounded over 430 others in just 30 minutes. The victims were protesting and praying outside a military facility, where they thought their ousted leader Mohamed Morsi was confined.
The killings, which Morsi’s aides called a massacre of innocents prostrated in prayer, have pushed the country to a tipping point. The military said it acted in self-defense against a terrorist attack that killed a soldier. Even it were believed, nearly 500 killed or wounded is very heavy “collateral damage”.
The White House says it is neutral but many Egyptians are convinced that the military moved last week to oust Morsi and again today because of a green light from Washington, which gives about $1.8 billion in annual aid mostly to the army.
The mystery now is about President Barack Obama intentions. Does he want a hard knuckled military government in Cairo that prevents catastrophic internal chaos? Or, is he still hoping for a stable democracy that seems much further away today?
This morning was a tipping point for Egyptian politics but it remains unlikely that the country will collapse into civil war between Islamists and the military. However, it could become another Algeria or Pakistan.
In oil-rich Algeria, the army, encouraged by the US and France, ousted Islamists after a 1992 election victory. It has been fighting a debilitating war against Islamic terrorism ever since. The latest attack in January 2013 killed 55 people during a terrorist takeover of a major oil facility. Meanwhile, youth unemployment over 20% has become a permanent fixture in the potentially very rich country.
In Pakistan, military officials have acquired so much business and property over the past half century that the army resists any civilian attempt to retain political power, fearing that politicians will nibble at its wealth. They have also enriched themselves by nearly $10 billion in US aid over the last decade by squeezing the Pentagon in the Afghan-Pakistan region. Yet half the population — 90 million people — lives on less than $2 day.
Egypt’s military has also acquired huge wealth through corruption, business and property since the 1950s. It has squeezed Washington for nearly $2 billion annually for more than three decades. Genuine democracy would put paid to all of that. Youth unemployment, already at 20%-40% depending on the location in Egypt, fuelled the falls of both Hosni Mubarak and Morsi.
In his early days, Morsi reached a deal with the army to not to interfere with its internal decisions or acquisition of wealth. He even humbled himself to give the military credit publicly as a supporter of the 2011 Tahrir Square revolution.
Unsurprisingly, he was shocked when the army pushed him out. His aides blame the Obama administration for this ignominy. So, returning to the good graces of Egyptian Islamists will be very tough for this and subsequent US administrations.
History will judge whether Morsi’s fall last week was a military coup or just desserts for his own shortsighted stubbornness and Islamic evangelism. Perhaps he, and his Muslim Brotherhood backers, misunderstood democracy to mean that a 51% majority provided carte blanche to impose a pro-Brotherhood agenda on the other 49%.
Or, Brotherhood dissidents used to hiding and fighting covertly for over 80 years could not resist the siren call of autocracy once they obtained the throne of power through democratic vote.
More likely, they were in a hurry to consolidate their grip on power to prevent the Salafists, their main Islamic challengers, from winning so many hearts and minds in Egypt as to make worthless their decades of suffering at the hands of Egypt’s kings and military dictators.
Salafist beliefs imported from Saudi Arabia entered Egypt about two decades ago but already seem favored by 12% of rural and urban poor, compared with the 25% that favor home grown Muslim Brotherhood.
Islamists of various shades, including Salafists and the Brotherhood, have the support of about 40% of Egyptians. The rest seem to be composed of moderate Muslims who prefer to get on with their lives rather than promoting Islam in politics, together with Coptic Christians, secularists, business persons and supporters of the military.
The problem is that the 60% are fragmented, disorganized and leaderless. In comparison, the Salafists and Muslim Brotherhood are well organized and have social networks and hierarchies of leadership. However, there is intense rivalry between the two for control over Islam’s practitioners. Ominously, both have militias steeped in religious fervor. If push comes to shove, they might fight one another while fighting the military. This is the nightmare facing Egypt if there is no controlling hand.
For its part, the military is disciplined and lethal but disdains civilian politicians. By its nature, it is undemocratic.
The question now is whether the military will be venal or make a real effort to rally behind democratic forces while weakening those who want some kind of Islamic state. Even if, perchance, the military does the right thing much will depend on which way Obama leans.
Ironically, nobody outside the Pentagon and White House has the power to keep Egypt’s military in check. So President Obama cannot sit on his neutral fence for long.