An interesting column by Fareed Zakaria over at Newsweek. Fareed argues that the military surge in Iraq “tackles the conflict that defined Iraq from 2003 to 2005—the insurgency—rather than the civil war now raging across the country.” Even “worse, in trying to solve yesterday’s problem we are exacerbating today’s.”
He goes on to write that:
In Baghdad, Shiite militias have melted away. Almost all U.S. military operations are now directed against Sunni insurgents. If those are successful, the picture could look less violent in six months, but it will be a dangerous stasis. A senior U.S. military officer, who is not allowed to speak on the record on these matters, said to me, “If we continue down the path we’re on, the Sunnis in Iraq will throw their lot behind Al Qaeda, and the Sunni majority in the Arab world will believe that we helped in the killing and cleansing of their brethren in Iraq. That’s not a good outcome for the security of the American people.”
We don’t intend to side with anyone. We’re trying to be evenhanded and build a single, democratic nation. But this attempt at neutrality is collapsing in Iraq’s bloody sectarian reality. Last week’s uproar over allegations that Shiite policemen in Baghdad had raped a 20-year-old Sunni woman vividly illustrates how trust between the two communities has been shattered. Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki first ordered an investigation, then 12 hours later declared the woman a liar, freed and rewarded the alleged rapists and later fired a Sunni official who had called for an unbiased investigation. Meanwhile we’re stuck in the middle, promising to uncover the truth while both sides are convinced that we’ve betrayed them. This is the definition of a no-win strategy.
Then, what does Iraq need? How can the U.S. still win the war in Iraq? Fareed’s answer: an economic surge. He explains that such a surge “is long overdue. One of the less-remarked-upon blunders of the Coalition Provisional Authority was that—consumed by free-market ideology—it shut down all of Iraq’s state-owned enterprises. This crippled the bulk of Iraq’s non-oil economy, threw hundreds of thousands of workers into the streets and further alienated the Sunnis, who were the managerial class of the country. The economic effects of this decision have been seismic. For example, Iraq’s agricultural productivity has plummeted because fertilizer plants were summarily closed. Unemployment in non-Kurdish Iraq remains close to 50 percent, which helps explain why so many young men are joining gangs, militias and insurgent groups. For the moment at least, democracy in Iraq has sharpened the country’s divisions. Capitalism and commerce can make them less relevant. That is the lesson of many conflict-ridden countries from Northern Ireland to Mozambique to Vietnam.”
Paul Brinkley, deputy under secretary of defense, recently got a bus factory up and running again: it’s a success. Workers were more than willing to go back to work and insurgents don’t dare attack the factories out of fear of alienating locals.
Brinkley also said that 143 of the 193 state-owned factories could be restarted soon except for one problem… money. It’s incredibly difficult for Brinkley to convince the American government that it needs to invest in these factories. The U.S. is investing $18 billion in reconstruction… but virtually nothing in state-owned companies.
The sad part? It would cost the U.S. only $100 million for the next 12 months. $100 million… that’s, Fareed explains, what the U.S. military will spend in Iraq in the next 12 hours.
This $100 million would result in more than 150 000 jobs. It would boost Iraq’s economy tremendously. More jobs = less unrest. More jobs = less bitterness, etc.
It’s quite incredible.
Note to George W. Bush: give Brinkley the freaking money.
Now.
The U.S. can think that the role of the government should be limited, etc. but to do that now? To start reforming the economy tremendously right now is a bit early, isn’t it? First rebuild the economy, then reform it. First economic security then economic reforms.
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