There has been a dangerous assumption, or perhaps just an epidemic of wishful thinking, against those opposed to President Trump since he took office that it was inevitable that he would leave office before the end of his term. Vice President Pence has been referred to, only half-jokingly, in White House circles as “46”, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said as early as last spring that Trump was bound to “self-impeach” at some point.
The FBI raids on the home, office, and hotel of Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen last week — an extremely serious action that indicates prosecutors’ strong belief in criminal activity — has only heightened talk of Trump’s exit, with Adam Davidson of the New Yorker just one of those writing that we are now in “the end stage” of Trump’s presidency.
This impulse is understandable. Trump has been acting like Richard Nixon in his final days for months now, skulking around the West Wing mumbling about conspiracies and lashing out at even his most loyal staff members, and it is hard to imagine this crisis-level tension persisting for another 33 months.
And Trump has provided copious material for those who would like him removed. The President and those in his inner circle are said to be much more concerned about the Cohen inquiry than they are about Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe. While there is some doubt that Trump himself can be definitively connected to his campaign’s efforts to get Russian assistance in 2016, Cohen is Trump’s consigliere, the guy who knows where the bodies are buried — and, more importantly, what’s in those tax returns that Trump has been so eager to keep secret.
Trump also came into office having bragged about how his celebrity granted him clearance to sexually assault women, and facing allegations of sexual assault or harassment from at least 16 different women. In office, he has been in violation of the emoluments clause because businesses he once promised to separate himself from were doing business with foreign governments. He has used the presidency to enrich both himself and his family.
The bar for impeachment is not clearly set in the Constitution, but given that Andrew Johnson was impeached for violating the unconstitutional Tenure of Office Act, and that Bill Clinton was impeached for attempting to obstruct justice in a civil suit, it seems Trump should qualify. (If nothing else, Trump has brought “disgrace and ridicule to the presidency” by his “words and actions,” one of the counts on which Johnson was impeached.)
An impeachment is an indictment, a declaration that there is enough evidence of an offense that a Senate trial is warranted. Many would argue that the allegations against Trump are serious enough. But there is still next to no chance that it will happen — even if Trump crosses the latest red line by firing Mueller or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. It’s telling that those Republicans who have warned Trump against such actions have demurred when asked to say if they would back impeachment if Trump does pull the trigger.
Trump remains very popular with the Republican base, and with both parties more beholden to their extremes than at any time in generations, House Republicans will be wary of crossing them. If Democrats do win House control in November, impeachment becomes more likely, but even in the worst-case scenario for the GOP, Democrats would be at least 15 Senate votes short of the 67 votes needed to convict and remove. (And no, Trump won’t resign, even though he seems to hate the job. He could never admit defeat or failure.)
There is also a practical consideration for Trump-haters. If Trump were to leave office early, the cunning Pence would take over. He would moderate his most extreme tendencies, clean house in the Administration, and present an air of competence and dignity. (Compared to Trump, that would be easy.) That would make President Pence a much stronger 2020 candidate than President Trump — and, should Trump leave office early but after January 20, 2019, would make Pence eligible to seek still another term in 2024.
Trump isn’t going anywhere. His opponents need to look to the polling places, not to Mueller.
Lysander Ploughjogger is a media analyst, freelance writer, and parent residing in Washington, D.C. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter at @LysPloughjogger.