Just in case any of you were having too pleasant of a week, allow me to come along and just drag you down into a bottomless pit of despair.
I’ve taken some time for reflection over these past few days on the subject of change. And no, I don’t mean the campaign slogan of the last presidential campaign. I refer, instead, to what seems to be the presiding theme of the history of our world, both in terms of the global environment over billions of years and the evolution of human society over, at best, a few hundred thousand.
In terms of the ecosystem, I think there is a tendency for us to take for granted the unbelievably favorable, temperate climate we have enjoyed over the past couple of hundred years while America struggled up from a handful of upstart colonies to a global superpower. Yes, there have been some highs and lows, but the weather has generally been about as favorable as you could realistically imagine. In times past, we know for a fact that fluctuations have created serious problems. Miniature ice ages have caused wide spread famine. Hot spells and broad droughts have pushed us toward staggering death tolls. Looking back further, the globe has frozen over, covered with glaciers, and heated up to sauna-like conditions.
And please take note… I’m not even talking about anthropogenic global warming here, no matter how you feel about that theory. These are just the natural fluctuations which have taken place in our complex biosphere. If there were not one sentient being on the face of the planet capable of banging two rocks together to start a fire, change would still come. It always does. To think that we’re going to go on enjoying the mild, benevolent conditions we’ve seen this past century is foolish. Change is coming. The only question is when. And any change is almost certainly not going to be for the better.
Human society has mimicked the ebb and flow of the climate, and the two are frequently intertwined. Civilizations rise and they fall. Power is accumulated and then it bleeds away, either slowly through decay or catastrophically through revolt and conquest. And the one thing these transitions most often have in common is that the fall almost always begins from within, not from outside aggression. Rome ruled the world once, but it came crashing down in time. It wasn’t the barbarians at the gate who threw down the empire. They merely picked off pieces of the carcass when it was already rotting. It fell from within through decay, abuse and corruption. Bread and circuses only last for just so long, and it’s the people who are the problem, not the theory of government.
Every effort of humankind at long term civil stability seems to be created with the seeds of failure baked into the cake. And this is a curious thing, given how many different forms of government we’ve attempted over the course of recorded history. When you stop to think about it, nearly all forms of government look pretty good at first glance. (And this is the portion of the column that will enrage my conservative friends, but bear with me if you will.) Even communism, that government theory most hated by lovers of democracy, looks fairly appealing in the advertising brochures. A society where everyone works as hard as they can and the general prosperity is assured for all? What’s not to like? But as sure as the sun rises, sooner or later one of the pigs comes up with the idea that yes, all animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others. And then, before you can say Snowball, the barn is in flames and the windmill is a pile of rubble in the field.
Even an absolute tyranny can work out fine for everyone, but only if you find a tyrant who is a true benevolent despot who channels all of their energy and resources into the benefit of the masses. The problem, of course, is that you so rarely find two benevolent despots in a row.
Monarchies can and have worked out over long periods of time, but only as long as the serfs have fairly tolerable lives. Then, your monarch winds up vacuuming too much wealth out of the base to fund his wars and castles and crowns and fancy balls. Before you know it a mob has shown up with pitchforks and torches, shoving a Magna Carta under your nose to sign, either in ink or your own blood.
So why should we be so confident that this great American experiment of ours – this democratic republic – should last forever? Sure, in the early days when everyone was struggling and there wasn’t much wealth to go around, we could all pull on the same oars. But once you get a long term dose of prosperity, power and wealth begin to accumulate in specific places as they always do. The government moves from a system of powerful independent states to an increasingly controlling federal base of control. In the private sector which makes up so much of the system, vast wealth accumulates in the hands of a very rich and powerful few and the middle class feels increasingly squeezed out. Sooner or later the ones who wind up in the bottom 95% being to grow disgruntled. It’s the same old pattern, just with new name tags stuck on the lapels.
These things, both globally and socially, seem to have a habit of repeating. So there you have it. The climate is going to go to hell no matter what sort of cap and tax scheme you impose. Nations will go to war, not over oil or gold, but over water and the last scraps of grain coming from the remaining bits of arable land. And the social fabric will start looking more appealing to the wolves than the sheep. In short, we’re all doomed.
Happy Tuesday. We’ll be back tomorrow with an examination of why all your children will grow up to hate you.