Kos says: If Obama runs in ’08, he’s got the nomination locked up.
Oddly enough, my reading of his analysis has Obama winning only one of the first four primaries (South Carolina). He has Vilsack in Iowa, Richardson or Edwards in Nevada, Kerry (?) or Clinton in New Hampshire, and then Obama in South Carolina. Kos also thinks that Obama will finish strong in Iowa (him and Edwards dueling for second and third), and personally, I think Obama could be very competitive in New Hampshire as well. But even then, I don’t think that counts as locking it up. Also, where does Wesley Clark factor into all of this? I was a Clark supporter in ’04, and I’m with Steve Benen: Reports of his deficiencies as a candidate are greatly exaggerated (indeed, he objectively did better on Super Tuesday than Edwards did).