The political nail-biter continues in New Hampshire, where primary votes so far show New York Senator Hillary Clinton holding a slim but persistent lead against Senator Barack Obama, whose victory in the Iowa caucuses last week led to an explosion of Obama-mania in not just the media — but in pre-New Hampshire opinion polls as well.
Part of the pre-vote conventional wisdom was that New Hampshire independents would vote for Obama in such numbers that it was possible that it would sink Republican John McCain’s campaign. McCain has long been a favorite of independent voters, but fell out of favor when he tried to win over parts of the GOP that scuttled his 2000 campaign.
Did the reverse happen tonight? (Note that the final vote is not over and neither Clinton or Obama have yet been projected as winning the contest)
Did McCain siphon votes from Obama? (The final results will tell the story). In the sea of press and blog stories (including on TMV) on Obama, it was easy to forget: McCain “connects” exceedingly well on TV, has a life narrative many respect and know and successfully woos voters in one-on-one situations.
CLICK HERE and you can see the see-saw in motion, via a page on MSNBC (it’s updated ever 5 minutes).
The bottom line: as of 6:53 PST the Democratic race is still not being called by the networks — but keep in mind that Clinton has steadily maintained her lead (the numbers are changing as we write this). ABC News:
With the polls closed in New Hampshire, ABC News does not have enough information yet to project a winner for the Democratic Party in the state that is poised to irrevocably shake up the Democratic presidential race.
For the Democrats, it looks like a two person race between Democratic rivals Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. — and ABC News is projecting that former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., will be third.
Meanwhile, exit poll results indicated 55 percent of Democratic primary voters said they’re most interested in a candidate who can bring about needed change — suggesting Obama’s campaign message has resonated with the first-in-the-nation primary voters.
Only about two in 10 say they care most about experience — the message most touted during the campaign by Clinton.
One quarter of the Democratic primary voters polls said Clinton “ran the most unfair campaign,” while one in 10 thought it was Obama, and another one in ten pointed the finger at Edwards.
And it was clear, too, that Obama and McCain were the favorites of independent voters:
New Hampshire independents are driving the elections in New Hampshire and they’re driving up the numbers for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, according to exclusive FOX News exit polling.
Early exit polling of Republicans showed McCain with 35 percent compared to 30 percent for Mitt Romney and 13 percent for Mike Huckabee. Of those voting in the Democratic primary, 39 percent were going for Obama, while 34 percent were going for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards was at 18 percent.
Polling taken at New Hampshire’s busy polling precincts showed 61 percent of voters identified themselves as independents — more than 40 percent of the state’s electorate — were voting in the Democratic primary, while 39 percent were choosing to vote in the GOP contest.
On the Republican side, independents were going for McCain over Romney, 37 percent to 26 percent. Among registered Republicans, voters were so far going for McCain over Romney by a slimmer margin, 35 percent to 32 percent.
Change, as it was in the Iowa caucuses last week, remained the biggest issue for Democrats voting in the primary, and among those Democrats who said change is their major issue, Obama won 58 percent over Clinton with 22 percent.
So now McCain is back in the running…but he still faces some very determined competitors and a killing schedule. But no matter what happened, he again proved as in Iowa that the independent voter does count — and that independent voters are not monolithic.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.