Some more returns have come in allowing an update.
In the Senate the Nevada race was won by the GOP making the current count 53D-45R.
Both remaining races (North Dakota and Montana) are looking to be Democrat wins so I am projecting a 55D-45R Senate
In the House it now looks like the Democrats will make single digit gains. My current count has it as 230R-187D with 18 races still out.
Assuming the Democrats win those races 2-1 (giving them the benefit of the general Democratic trend of the night) that would make the new House 236R-199D or a 6 seat gain for the Democrats.
This outcome means that the 2014 elections may very well be meaningless.
Starting first on the House side, it is extremely rare for the President’s party to gain House seats in an off year election, especially during a 2nd term. So unless something very very unusual happens there is no real way for the Democrats to gain 19 more seats in 2014.
Thus the House is likely GOP through 2017.
On the other hand the Republicans would need to gain 6 seats in 2014 (assuming the 55-45 numbers play out).
The Democrats do have 20 seats up in 2014 versus 13 for the GOP so it is not impossible for the GOP to turn that into a 19R-14D class and thus retake the Senate. But it looks to me that about half of the Democratic seats up in 2014 are in fairly blue states and thus the GOP would really have to do quite well with a fairly limited number of targets.
So the Senate seems likely to remain Democratic until 2017.
Thus the next 4 years are likely to be similar to the last 2.
*********************************************************************************************************************
Based on the current results the Democrats have at minimum kept their current 53-47 edge in the Senate.
There are 3 seats out in Montana, Nevada and North Dakota. At this point I would call Montana and North Dakota for the Democrats and Nevada leaning to the GOP. So the Democrats look to gain 2-3 seats, a major triumph given the fact they came into this campaign expecting to lose. Indeed it may well give President Obama control of the Senate for the rest of his term.
On the House side the numbers are still coming in but the GOP is certain to remain control and from what I’ve been hearing even Democrats are looking at the possibility of a modest (3-5 seat at most) GOP gain. However I’d guess that in the end results will swing slightly to the Democrats, perhaps 3-5 seat swing, but still a GOP House. And given that off year gains in the House are very rare for the incumbent party it looks like the GOP will retain the House for the next 4 years.