For every reaction there is a counterreaction. And nowhere do you see that as often as in politics — so this story should come as no surprise:
Helped by the fight over immigration, Democrats seeking their party’s presidential nomination are moving to court Hispanic voters like never before, as a string of early primary states with sizable Hispanic voting blocs prompt candidates to hire outreach consultants, start Spanish-language Web sites and campaign vigorously before Hispanic audiences.
The battle for Hispanic voters is a result of the decision by several states with large Hispanic populations to move their presidential primaries to early 2008, including California, Florida and New York. Roughly two-thirds of the nation’s Hispanic residents live in nine of the states that will hold Democratic primaries or caucuses on or before Feb. 5.
But there’s also another factor involved in this. Can you guess what it is? CORRECT:
Strategists say the influence of Hispanic voters is likely to be amplified next year because of an unusually intense response in many Hispanic communities to immigration policy. Conservative Republicans, with the help of some left-leaning Democrats, teamed up to derail an immigration bill in the Senate on Thursday that would have provided a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
It is in the new early primary states where Democrats hope the outreach efforts bear fruit. In the last presidential election, Hispanic voters accounted for a significant part of the overall Democratic primary electorate in California (16 percent), New York (11 percent), Arizona (17 percent) and Florida (9 percent), all states that will hold primaries by Feb 5.
The situation now ostensibly benefiting Democrats and ostensibly posting a long-term danger to GOPers is somewhat ironic.
It’s no secret that President George Bush and his political maven Karl Rove came to office planning as part of a grand plan to institutionalize and solidify Republican the wooing and consolidation of a sizable chunk of the Hispanic vote. It was believed Hispanics could help provide a winning margin in key states.
By all accounts Bush deeply believes in the immigration reforms being proposed, partially due to his experience in Texas. But fierce conservative backlash — egged on by increasing indications in opinion polls that immigration reform’s backers have not convinced the bulk of Americans about the wisdom of the yanked plan — kicked in.
The reaction to Bush’s plan led to the reported “intense” reaction in Hispanic communities. And where will it end?
Hopefully (for the Republicans) not the way it ended for the Republican party after California Governor Pete Wilson’s 1994 successful campaign for a proposition that cut off public service assistance to illegal immigrants. The California Republican party never really recovered from it. No, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victories don’t really count: he won with huge margins of support from independent voters and even some Democrats who felt he was a different kind of Republican. And he’s not a favorite of California Conservative Republicans who also agree that he is a different kind of Republican (spelled by them this way: R-I-N-O).
The questions heading into 2008 will be:
(1) Is the Hispanic vote all it’s cracked up to be? Will the unification of the party’s conservative base on the immigration issue — in line with the sentiments of most GOP Presidential wannabies (except for Senator John McCain’s whose political stock is rapidly falling ) — offset likely losses among some Hispanic voters (keeping in mind that no voting block is monolithic)?
(2) Will the Democrats’ gain due to the GOP stance on immigration? Or will they suffer because of key party officials stand on immigration reform and also by alienating some voters as they woo Hispanic voters?
One tipoff will come in these primary states.
Will the winning candidates be the ones who secured large number of Hispanic votes? And how can the voting power of these groups be harnessed? Can Hispanic groups be counted on to help the Democrats organize and get out the Hispanic vote in 2008?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.