Democrats are on track to not only win control of the House of Representatives in November, but to outpace the Republicans’ 54-seat win in 1994, and possibly even the GOP’s 63-seat win in the Tea Party year of 2010.
It’s not just Democrats who are saying this. In an interview this week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “This is going to be a challenging election year.” McConnell said he hoped the GOP would hold the Senate (which seems likely), because “even if we were to lose the House and be stymied legislatively, we could still approve appointments, which is a huge part of what we do.”
Translation: McConnell thinks the House is gone, or he wouldn’t have said anything. Other Republican leaders have been quietly saying the same thing. Sen. Doug Jones’s election in Alabama could be written off as a fluke due to the GOP’s nomination of the repugnant Roy Moore, but Rep.-elect Conor Lamb’s win in a solidly Republican district last month set off alarms.
Another harbinger came just this week in Wisconsin, when liberal judge Rebecca Dallet won a state Supreme Court seat in a landslide over a conservative. Dallet is the first liberal to win an open seat on that court in more than 20 years — and she did it by nationalizing the race, running against President Trump. She outpaced Trump by 20 points in some of the state’s most Republican counties.
There are 118 House districts that are less Republican than the one where Democrat Lamb just got elected. This does not mean that the GOP will lose 118 seats. Special elections get rare national attention, and Lamb faced a weak opponent. But there are other factors beyond Trump’s unpopularity that make a historic sweep look likely.
A redrawing of Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, ordered by that state’s Supreme Court, cuts against the GOP. Even in a year when the parties were evenly matched, the new map would probably cost the GOP about four or five seats in Pennsylvania. On top of that, there are now eight open seats across the U.S. currently held by Republicans in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Those easiest-to-win races would bring the Democrats halfway to the gains they need for the majority.
That’s simply a path to victory, though, not to a sweep. There are other factors pointing to bigger gains.
With the majority seeming to be in peril, many Republicans are choosing not to seek re-election. As of this writing, there will be 37 open Republican-held seats in November, compared to just 19 open Democratic-held seats. More Republicans are retiring this year than in any midterm year of a GOP administration since 1974 — a historically bad year for the party.
Retirements are only part of the peril for the GOP. Special elections this year have shown a wide “enthusiasm gap”, with Democrats turning out in much greater numbers than Republicans. Even in defeat, as in special House elections in Georgia and South Carolina, Democratic candidates are running about 16 points better than historical data would suggest. This could be devastating for the GOP. (An April 24 special election in Arizona’s Eighth District may offer more tea leaves. The district is solidly Republican, and Trump won it by 21 points.)
Some analysts say as many as 110 House seats could be competitive this year, which in this era of partisan gerrymandering is unheard of. They will not all go to the Democrats. But if current trends continue, the party could gain 70 seats.
Lysander Ploughjogger is a media analyst, freelance writer, and parent residing in Washington, D.C. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter at @LysPloughjogger.