From Reuters:
Voters appeared to have forced Germany’s main political rivals into coalition with each other on Sunday, as exit polls showed conservative challenger Angela Merkel the winner but unable to form a centre-right alliance.
Projections by leading institutes broadcast on German television gave Merkel’s conservatives — the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) — the biggest share of the vote at about 35.8 percent and their preferred partners, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), 10.3 percent.
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s SPD stood at roughly 33.7 percent, its partners the Greens at 8.2 percent and the new Left Party at 8.0 percent.
The result, if it stands, is a huge blow to the CDU, which was way ahead in the polls before Merkel’s flat-tax fiasco (she’s for it; Germans aren’t) and Schroeder’s impressive debate performances. Indeed, there was even arrogant talk of Merkel as Germany’s Margaret Thatcher (she’s not and won’t ever be).
What this means is that a CDU/SPD “grand coalition” is possible (though such a coalition, the first since the late-’60s, wouldn’t last long; another election would soon have to be called). Or perhaps the SPD could try to forge a coalition with the Greens and the Lefts (and perhaps also with the liberal FDP) — an everyone-but-the-CDU/CSU coalition. Regardless, it looks like Schroeder has at least managed to hold off a majority CDU government, and he may end up staying on as chancellor (even if Merkel becomes chancellor now, Schroeder could return to power after the next election, assuming the SPD doesn’t blame him for losing this one).
Of course, we’ll have to see how the popular vote translates into seats in the Bundestag. Germany uses a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system (a form of proportional representation based on the popular vote in each Land (federal state). Ultimately, the allocation of seats will determine what governing coalitions are possible.
More to follow, both here at at The Reaction.
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UPDATE 1:
From AP:
Gerhard Schroeder, written off as a lame duck a few weeks ago, finished stronger than expected and refused to concede defeat, saying he could still theoretically remain in power if talks with other parties were successful.
“I feel myself confirmed in ensuring on behalf of our country that there is in the next four years a stable government under my leadership,” he said to cheering supporters at his Social Democrat party headquarters while flashing the thumbs-up signal and holding his arms aloft in a gesture of triumph.
But Merkel claimed her party received a mandate from voters to form a new coalition government to carry out her plan to mend frayed ties with the United States.
“What is important now is to form a stable government for the people in Germany, and we… quite clearly have the mandate to do that,” she said.
Both Schroeder and Merkel said they would talk to all parties except the new Left Party, a combination of ex-communists and renegade Social Democrats.
Now let the games begin in earnest. Ultimately, the outcome may depend on whether Schroeder is able to persuade the FDP, historically the CDU’s coalition partner, to join a three-party coalition with his own SPD and the Greens (it looks more and more like the Left Party is out of it). Which might not be so bad — although, again, there will likely be another election sooner rather than later in order for one of the two major parties to secure a more stable governing coalition.
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UPDATE 2:
From the BBC:
Some predictions give the CDU the same number of seats as Gerhard Schroeder’s centre-left Social Democrats (SDP).
Mrs Merkel, the pre-poll favourite to become chancellor, looks unlikely to be able to form her preferred coalition and may have to join with the SPD.
But Mr Schroeder has insisted that he has enough votes to remain as chancellor.
He said he could envisage a grand coalition of the two largest parties, but only if he was its leader.
Preliminary results — in terms of popular vote — are as follows (from German TV station ARD):
- CDU/CSU: 35.4%
SPD: 34.2%
FDP: 10.0%
Left: 8.5%
Greens: 8.1%
Both sides are claiming victory. More or less. From the Deutsche Welle:
Should the early results hold into the night, it would mean the third-worst showing by the Christian Democratic Union in German postwar history. The result is a damming blow to the CDU, which waged an issues-oriented campaign focused on reforming Germany’s economy to meet the challenges of globalization.
But:
Merkel said that her party, which just out-edged the SPD by only a few percentage points, has been given the responsibility of forming a new government. What that government will look like is anyone’s guess.
In terms of the SPD, the coalition question isn’t any more certain. The only clear guidelines given so far were regarding who would not be considered for a coalition… [SPD Chairman] Müntefering said his party would not form a coalition with the Left Party, which was recently formed by disgruntled SPD members in response to the government’s reform plans. A coalition with the FDP, on the other hand, is still not entirely out of the question — at least from the SPD stand point.
If the SPD, Greens and FDP joined forces it would be enough to form a majority coalition. The FDP, however, has rejected building a coalition with the SPD. Speaking on German public television in a post-election debate of party leaders, Schröder also ruled out a so-called “grand coalition” of SPD and CDU/CSU under the leadership of Angela Merkel.
But for the CDU, the only real viable option currently available if they want to build the next government is to form a grand coalition with the SPD. So far, that option has not been entirely ruled out, although only about 36 percent of the CDU voters have said they would endorse such a coalition.
So: uncertainty. For now.
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UPDATE 3:
More reaction (from around the blogosphere):
Also, be sure to check out my pre-election analysis over at The Reaction. Back-patting moment: I did predict that the SPD would do better than expected, and I’m still expecting an SPD-led coalition government.