Demographic changes occurring in developed nations presage a different future for these states. In relation to these changes, two elements must be considered in these countries. One is the current age distribution of the population and how it is expected to evolve, including the birth rate and life expectancy. The second is how the revamped racial, ethnic and religious make-up of these countries resulting from immigration, will affect the culture and values that have been an essential part of the society’s DNA. As a nation’s population diversifies, roles of men and women, relationships, values and even its language may be transformed over time, with new words and phrases being used and ultimately integrated into everyday speech. The ubiquity of the Internet and social media may make some of these changes occur at warp speed, perhaps without conscious recognition by the populace of what is happening.
As life expectancy increases and birth rates diminish, the population is aging to varying degrees in all advanced democracies. Between the census in 2000 and that of 2010, the number of people in the U.S. over age sixty-five increased at a 15.1 percent rate. 13 percent of the population was sixty-five and over in 2010, with 5.9 percent seventy-five and over. By 2030, it is projected that nearly 20 percent of Americans will be sixty-five and over, with further growth of the older population over the following decades. One of the questions raised by these statistics is will the nation have enough young people to support Social Security and Medicare for the elderly and disabled, while the young save adequately for themselves. This is one reason that immigration to America should be encouraged. Most of those who want to come here are of working age and will bolster the nation’s economy and preserve its safety-nets.
Aside from undocumented immigrants, the nation’s aggregate minority population is estimated to become the majority by 2042, a sign of America’s growth and the health of its economy. Minority women are generally younger and have higher birth rates than the rest of the U.S. population, so it is likely their percentages will continue to increase even without immigration. In 2012, minority births comprised 50.2% of the total versus 37 percent in 1990. And minorities encompassed 49.7 percent of children under age five. Unless there is a sudden unexpected surge of Caucasian women becoming pregnant multiple times in the next few years, the U.S. will need more men and women of color as well as Caucasian immigrants to remain a strong, relatively youthful, and vibrant nation. Immigrants bring with them new blood, new ideas, and strong backs.
Western European nations, and developed Asian democracies, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, have even greater problems than the U.S. in terms of aging populations with birth rates below what is necessary for replacement of their populations (2.1 percent is needed). These demographic changes have impacted their work forces, economies, and safety nets, and will cause even more difficulties in the future. For example, Germany’s birth rate is 1.4, Holland’s 1.8, Spain and Italy, 1.4. Though the UK and Ireland have rates of 1.9 and 2.1, much of this is derived from non-European immigrant parents. South Korea’s fertility rate is 1.25, Taiwan 1.11, and Japan’s 1.4, all insufficient to replace their populations. There are a number of reasons for the low birth rates in these countries. Perhaps most important is the fact that women are better educated. They derive pleasure from work, high incomes, and independence and many want to remain in the work force instead of staying home to raise children. Because of this they frequently delay having babies, and may have fewer offspring or none at all. In addition, child care is often inadequate and grandparents are not in the households to provide help. At times, marriage is also postponed or women may choose to stay single since they are able to support themselves.
There are two possible ways democracies with low birth rates could grow their populations. The first would be to encourage native-born women to have more children and propagate at an earlier age. For this to happen, the countries must have safe, inexpensive child care to allow women to continue working after they give birth. If the governments provided a bonus or premium to women when they have children, it would also encourage more pregnancies, as would a tax benefit tied to children. In addition, government support for education at all levels would reinforce women considering pregnancies, as the expense of schooling is a major constraint for parents who would like to have children. An advertising campaign that promoted babies as a patriotic effort might also increase birth rates. Removing any remaining stigma for single women who bear children would also likely inspire more pregnancies. The second alternative is through immigration, these nations invigorating their economies with young people from other countries. These migrants who will increase the work forces will also protect the social compacts with retirees. However, the nations in Europe and Asia have had homogeneous populations for centuries and unlike the United States, there is no history of large scale immigration. In addition, the preponderance of immigrants who want to enter and live in the E.U. are Muslims from the Middle East, Asia or North Africa, or blacks from sub-Saharan Africa, with vastly different cultures and religions than the nations where they wish to reside. Because of the considerable dissimilarities, these new immigrants appear to have more trouble integrating into the mainstreams of their adopted countries, than immigrants in the U.S.
Whatever the problems that exist, it is a necessary marriage of convenience for both the Europeans and the immigrants. They must both learn to live together and work together. The main source of immigrants for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan is mainland China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. With similar traditions and cultural practices, Taiwan should be able to absorb Chinese immigrants more easily than those from other nations. However, any surplus labor in China will diminish in the next several decades due to their one-child policy, and their society itself will also be aging. The strongly monolithic societies of Japan and South Korea are currently having difficulty accepting the foreign immigrants who are living in their midst, but even more will be needed in the future, so accommodations must be made. There are demographic realities that must be accepted. Mixing of populations in all developed countries will cause pain on both sides, but is a necessity to maintain economic growth and to support older nationals.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020