Math time again.
According to RCP, Obama has 1,738 total delegates (1,489 pledged plus 249 super), leaving him 286 shy of the magic 2,024 he needs to clinch the nomination.
As of today, again according to RCP, he’s holding at roughly 45% in national polls on average — a threshhold that he has effectively been at or above for the last two-plus months, despite all the kitchen-sink and bus throwing that’s been going on.
Assuming he picks up (on average) a minimum of 45% of the remaining pledged delegates between now and June 4 (he’s expected to do much better in some states and slightly worse in others) — plus a minimum of 45% of the remaining superdelegates (he’s doing much better than that post-Pennsylvania) — he’ll clinch the nomination with 24 total delegates to spare, and 71 more than his opponent.
As Andrew Sullivan has repeatedly encouraged his readers of late: “Know hope.”