In New Jersey, Election Day has come and gone and for Governor Chris Christie, there was no “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment. The Governor was declared the winner at 8:01 PM, the moment after the polls closed, giving a formal rite of passage to what has been anything but under the radar before: speculation about his national future. But on a night of triumph, there were undoubtedly some warning shots should the Governor decide to pursue a White House run in 2016.
And the aftermath of New Jersey’s election brings an open question as to the extent Christie would be able to unify the national GOP. Evidence is hand wringing that took place within Republican circles just after Christie won. Internal sources said Christie took out his frustration on Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr for failing to lead Senate Republicans to more Legislative pickups. Republicans contended that Christie, wanting to preserve his bipartisan image, did litttle to assist GOP challengers until the closing days of the campaign.The Senate caucus evidently sided against Christie and re-elected Kean 10-6.
There is no denying the span of Christie’s margin was awesome and, in Democratic and Republican, Caucasian and Latino areas alike, it was indiscriminant. His fulfillment of a personal goal to hit 60% in a deep “blue” state meant sweeping Democratic strongholds (Camden and Mercer Counties), adding to his narrow ’09 pluralities in other populous Democratic counties such as Middlesex, and holding Democrat Barbara Buono’s margin in deep blue Hudson and Essex to below 55%. The only county that went semi-counter to the trend was Passaic, where Christie’s 51% win was probably below expectations.
Christie’s 75% of the vote in Ocean County and 71% in Monmouth were particularly noteworthy. They are Republican strongholds to begin with, but the size of the margins were eyebrow raising. But those counties were where the heart of Sandy struck and it’s probable that many voters had that in their minds. The closest thing I recall to that is Ted Kennedy gaining 74% of the vote in Massachusetts in 1964, a year after his brother’s assassination and just after his plane crash.
Does Christie’s win signify that the “Garden State” is turning blue? Wishful thinking. There is only one Chris Christie and the all coat and no tail signifies that for Jersey Republicans, he is the first, second, and third act in a one-man show. And that’s why, his bragging rights have their limits not just what his victory meant for other Republicans, but for whether his accomplishments were truly crested across party lines.
For starters, after Hurricane Sandy, many storm weary New Jerseyans were looking for someone to rally around. Christie, like Rudy Giuliani after 9/11 was the man at the helm, and so embracing him was natural proclivity. And his “Jersey Strong” ad campaign gave him one additional method of preserving that heft.
Christie’s boasts of reaching across the aisle is an impressive talking point in a national election. But George W. Bush and Barack Obama did the same thing. In fact, that became a large part of their appeal. Things didn’t work out that way once election gave way to reality, did it?. Even in Jersey, it had it’s limits. while Christie did get Democratic support for his high-profile initiatives, it was not nearly unanimous. In fact, only a handful of Democrats in both chambers backed him, but it was enough to get the measures over the top.
And the limits for other Jersey Republicans. No Senator seeking re-election lost his/her seat, leaving the Democratic majority in the upper chamber untouched, at 24-16. In the Assembly, two races remain unresolved but when the dust settles, Christie’s sole strength may have been helping a single Republican Assemblyman in Atlantic County hold his seat. The sole GOP pickup in the Assembly likely resulted from a scandal involving a democratic Assemblyman in Cape May County. By contrast, when Democratic Governor Richard J. Hughes handsomely won a second term in 1965, and when Republican Governor Tom Kean broke records in his 71% rout in ’85, the coattails were devastating to the other party.
Christie is quick to blame a Democratic drawn map that was in use for the elections and notes that GOP Senate candidates received more than 100,000 votes statewide than Democratic candidates. But turnout was higher in GOP areas than Democrats and most GOP Senators faced limited competition as opposed to their Democratic colleagues. And Christie carried the same areas that re-elected these Democratic incumbents not once, but twice, signifying that if voters wanted to vote for the GOP ticket down the line, they were more than capable of doing so.
Christie’s lack of transfer to other Republicans mirrors that of some re-elected GOP Presidents. Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan took near or above 60% in their bid for second terms, yet all lost seats on the Senate seats and either lost ground or made minimal gains in the House. LBJ of course had major coattails but coming after the Kennedy assassination, and running on a “Let Us Continue” mantra made the circumstances different.
Closer to home, I think of a Governor’s race that was looked upon for similar ramifications. In 1990, it was a given that Mario Cuomo would win a third term in New York going away. Republicans were so disinclined to challenge him that New York State GOP Chair Roy Goodman got to the “R” in his rolodex before coming to businessman Pierre Rinfret, who accepted. Cuomo had hoped to extend his coattails. He wanted to pick up the long held GOP State Senate, see passage of his environment bond, and knock off Republican State comptroller Ned Regan. He failed at all three. Ultimately, Cuomo decided at the very last minute not to go forward. But the betting is he may have been able to edge Bill Clinton for the nomination had he wanted it.
That brings us to the question at hand? Should Chris Christie be counted out for the nomination? People who are doing so would be making a serious mistake. Some believe his stances on social issues and his various Judicial appointments would hurt. But even among conservative faithful, that is likely to have limits.
Oratorically and personalitywise, Christie is likely to be far more persuasive in a primary than Mitt Romney who kind of got lucky by virtue of the fact that two or three underwhelming front-runners of the month split the vote. If the GOP can settle on one alternative, presumably Ted Cruz, they may have a shot. Otherwise, the Governor of NJ may be hard to stop,.Personality is everything. There is also the likelihood of a Republican split.
In hindsight, if any one thing may do him in, it’s likely to be the “handshake.” Will his efforts to convince Republican voters that he was simply being parochial in a time of devastation work? Possibly. But those counting him out and those thinking he has it locked up will mutually learn one thing. That for Chris Christie, “Jersey Strong” is not necessarily American strong.
benswann.com