NATO’s apparent victory in Libya, led by France and Britain with full US support, unveils a defining moment for NATO cooperation to protect civilians from massacre by a tyrant. But it is not one that the Obama administration can welcome without reserve.
It seriously eroded American influence by causing China to join Russia, which Beijing leaders distrust and despise, in casting a veto in the UN Security Council. The veto was against the key American foreign policy goal of imposing sanctions on Syria, where the regime is killing unarmed civilians every day.
The unusual Chinese action marks a turning point for the Security Council’s utility in advancing American foreign policy and security interests. It makes influencing the Council, which authorizes sanctions and wars, a much tougher arena for the US. The veto is significant because China usually stays out of the way and abstains, rather than being assertive in the Council. This time it felt strongly enough to use the veto as a reprimand to the Western allies and to signal a red line.
The erosion of US global influence will deepen if China continues to turn against US initiatives, instead of abstention, in the Security Council. The US remains the world’s primary economic and military power by far but in today’s interconnected world American influence cannot be wielded without friends in the UN. Voting patterns in the Security Council indicate who are friends, neutrals, competitors or enemies.
The Libyan war has damaged American ability to generate international pressure to lift the oppression of innocent Syrian civilians. That is because it set off a wave of apprehension in China and Russia about the Obama administration’s good faith and the intentions of NATO, which the US set up and still dominates. In Chinese eyes, the victory in Libya says the US, Britain and France are transforming NATO, created as a purely defensive alliance, into an offensive force to fight far outside Europe’s territories under camouflage of protecting human rights. That protection while desirable is being used to enforce regime change through wars and establish democracies friendly to the West.
Judging from the facts, Chinese suspicions are exaggerated. Things have not worked out in favor of the West as a result of any war waged by the US and NATO with or without Security Council approval. For example, America and Europe have not gained much from the still unfinished wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. Instead they have borne very heavy costs in terms of killed and wounded as well as treasure. Debt raised partly for the wars has caused a serious economic slowdown in the US and several European countries are also teetering on the edge of a second recession.
However, Russian and Chinese apprehension is not entirely unfounded. The Security Council authorized war in Libya with Russian and Chinese support to prevent a massacre of innocent civilians by Muammar Gaddafi. But the Western allies interpreted the mission to include inflicting a military defeat on Gaddafi to oust him permanently from power.
In effect, a humanitarian mission became the spearhead for regime change. Gaddafi’s ouster was well deserved and necessary. But in the arena of global diplomacy, it sets a precedent and is raising red flags in many countries that fear the long arm of US and NATO military power extending to distant lands.