The conference on Global Catastrophic Risks is meeting in the U.K. this week, and Reason Magazine provides a rundown of the major threats we face from outisde the planet, and more to the point, what industrialized nations like ours are doing about it.
In 1998, Congress charged NASA with surveying the skies to detect 90 percent of near earth asteroids (NEAs) greater than 1 kilometer in size in 10 years. An impact by a kilometer-sized asteroid could end civilization. Besides the blast, such an asteroid would inject so much dust into the atmosphere that it would cause global winter that would cause massive crop failure.
Proposals to have the Spaceguard Survey expand to detect NEAs as small a 100-meters are now being considered. Morrison groused that NASA has spent only $ 4 million on Spaceguard and argued that the magnitude of the risk merits a budget of half a billion dolars.
The study is dealing with three specific types of threats. The first is is the meteor problem. We haven’t found any dinosaur killers coming our way any time soon. Of course, while a one kilometer or greater diameter meteor strike would end civilization, if not drive us to extinction, considerably smaller objects could wreak major havoc. We’re still a long way from identifying all of the potentially dangerous objects down to the 100 meter range, which would impact with a force greater than the largest nuclear bomb in our posession.
The second threat they study is that of a massive Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) which could be generated by a star in this part of the galaxy going supernova. It could effectively put the planet inside a microwave oven for a while and would be catastrophic. Sadly, there’s not much we can do about that if WR-104 decides to blow up on us.
The last threat is from comets. We tend to have a pretty good grip on the icey comets from the Kuiper Belt (out near where Pluto orbits) such as Halleys. What this team is more worried about are rocky, “dark comets” in long period orbits coming from the Ort Cloud. They only show up rarely, but do so with little warning and they don’t have the flashy tails that their Kuiper cousins display. They remind us that the IRAS Araki-Alcock dark comet came zooming by in 1983, missing us by an astronomical hair’s breadth, and we didn’t even see it until it was two weeks out.
Congress is once again talking about trimming NASA’s budget for next year as everyone rushes to “fix government spending” during and election year. If cut funding for near earth orbiter studies and protective programs like Spaceguard, the good news is that you may only have a month or so to regret the decision. Keep that in mind while voting.
Today marks the 100th anniversay of one of the enduring mysteries of the modern era. On June 30, 1908 an object of some sort exploded above some distance above near the Tunguska River in Siberia. The exact nature of the object remains a mystery but the effects were mind boggling.
For an area of close to 1,000 square miles everything was flattened. Upwards of 80,000,000 trees were destroyed and there was an earth tremor approaching 6 on the Richter scale. The force of the explosion was estimated to be 1,000 times that of the Hiroshima bomb.
Scientists continue to debate whether it was a comet, meteor, black hole or even an exploding UFO. The fact remains though that had the impact occurred in a populated area the death toll would have been huge. Even more ominous, had it occurred today it might have been seen as a nuclear strike and started a war.
Aside from the historical interest, there is a modern day reason to mark this event. According to an article in the NY Times today, scientists know it is just a matter of time before the event happens again.
In another seemingly-perfect launch, the Space Shuttle Discovery is on its way to the International Space Station. Like many space geeks, I remained a bit tense until the solid rocket boosters were dropped but it now appears everything is right on target.
The shuttle will be taking a Japanese-designed lab module to the space station, it weighs in at about 16 tons and will be installed in a series of space walks over the next week.
In what may be a far more important job, they are also bringing along spare parts to repair the broken toilet on the ISS, which just goes to show you that, even in space, it is the little things that matter most
“Just as the Moon was conquered due to the Cold War between the U.S. and the USSR, the conquest of Mars is meant to retain American leadership space … Beijing has promised to put people to the moon by 2025. Suddenly, the United States has also announced intentions to return to the Moon and even establish a base as a stepping stone for a manned mission to Mars in 2029. So there!”
“Caught up in budgetary constraints, NASA is increasingly turning to the private sector. What country will be the first to plant its flag on Mars? Perhaps the question should be, which brand?”
“It seems that the Americans take the Red Planet quite seriously. On May 26, NASA’s Phoenix Lander touched down in the vicinity of the planet’s North Pole. … People might wonder, how is America’s main partner - and rival in space - faring? … Why is it American craft which are doggedly gnawing at the surface of this distant planet, having outlived their projected life-spans many times over? What prevents us, who have developed so many ambitious plans, from building and sending unmanned missions to Mars.” Read the rest of this entry »
At the time of this writing, we are slightly more than 36 hours from the long anticipated landing of the Phoenix on the cold surface of the Norther polar region of Mars. At least we hope it’s a landing, as opposed to an impact. There is nothing simple about pulling off a landing on the red planet and, to date, we are running about a fifty percent success rate. The spectacular achievements of the twin rovers often make us forget the loss of several other landers which plunged into the Martian atmosphere out of control, never to be heard from again. Having already traveled more than 420 million miles, Phoenix is scheduled to land shortly before 8 PM eastern time on Sunday night.
Phoenix will land in an area where orbital surveys have shown large quantities of water just under the surface of the Martian soil. As more and more data has been gathered, hopes have dimmed that we will find any sort of life on the planet. If we ever do, it is likely to be bacterial or microbial in nature, deep under the surface. The Phoenix has two primary goals, assuming a safe, soft touchdown: to study the history of water in the Martian arctic and search for evidence of a habitable zone and assess the biological potential of the ice-soil boundary.
This is the type of information we will need if we are ever to put manned missions on the red planet. Let’s all cross our fingers and hope for a safe landing. There will be live coverage of the event on CNN and, with luck, we should have the first pictures back within an hour of the landing.
The Dayton Daily News and one of the kindest journalists out there, Bill Hershey, is reporting that:
John Glenn, the former astronaut and four-term U.S. senator, is expected to endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president on Tuesday.
Glenn, 86, the first American to orbit the earth and a long-time friend of both Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton, is expected to announce his choice at a Columbus press conference, according to a source close to the Democrats.
Glenn’s expected endorsement comes as both Hilllary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama begin focusing on Ohio’s March 4 primary in their battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.
My inbox has been pummeled today with news, information, invites, pleas and other communications related to Hillary and Barack in Ohio. Ohio blogs are going bonkers making predictions about superdelegates, Ohio congressional districts, political blogs and everything and anything else that might have an influence on voters’ choices.
Folks. Get a grip. Calm down. Let us think. Listen to us, respond to us. But please, try not to overwhelm us so much. It will backfire.
Hattip to Holly who is undertaking a serious study project at the moment.
February 2nd, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
Once again, former President Bill Clinton seems poised to be pitchforked into the headlines right on the eve of a crucial primary vote amid a report that he’s going to “repent” by going to some black churches. Almost on the EVE of the Super Tuesday primaries, Clinton will garner attention that could be focused on his wife Hillary Clinton:
Once again, Bill Clinton is ready to repent.
On Sunday the former president is scheduled to visit black churches in South Central Los Angeles, where he’s expected to offer a mea culpa to those who “dearly loved him” when he was their president, Rep. Diane Watson (D-Calif.) says.
[UPDATE: The Clinton campaign has now denied that he will do a mea culpa. But is the door still ajar for a news-making apology? Read OUR LATEST POST HERE.]
This will get LOTS of media attention tomorrow. And it will be in the news cycle Monday.
So the stage is being set to give Bill Clinton a pass, because he is Bill Clinton. But lest we re-write recent history, Mr. Clinton had been accused of raising the race issue SEVERAL times, including blatantly right after Senator Barack Obama won South Carolina.
Because he is Bill Clinton (who just coincidentally will make the apology right before Super Tuesday) is he allowed to just apologize and pretend it never happened or that it some how just came out of his mouth like the aftermath of food poisoning? More from the Washington Post:
Watson, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus who has endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), tells us she’ll usher the former president to more than half a dozen churches in her district where she says he needs to “renew his relationship” with congregants who were turned off by his racially tinged comments in the days leading up to and following the South Carolina primary. (Such as when Clinton compared Sen. Barack Obama’s landslide victory to Jesse Jackson’s Read the rest of this entry »
January 14th, 2008 by MICHAEL STICKINGS, Assistant Editor
The Antarctic ice sheet, which covers about 98 percent of Antarctica, contains about 90 percent of the world’s total ice mass and about 61 percent of the world’s total fresh water. It is estimated that global sea levels would rise about 60 meters were it to melt completely.
And it is melting. And melting quickly, according to an important new study:
One of the biggest worries about global warming has been its potential to affect the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet, a vast storehouse of frozen water that would inundate the world’s coastal regions if it were to melt because of a warming climate.
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[A] new study released [yesterday], based on some of the most extensive measurements to date of the continent’s ice mass, presents a worrisome development: Antarctica’s ice sheet is shrinking, at a rate that increased dramatically from 1996 to 2006.
“Over the time period of our survey, the ice sheet as a whole was certainly losing mass, and the mass loss increased by 75 per cent in 10 years,” the study said.
The study was conducted by the Radar Science and Engineering Section of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One of the scientists involved in the study, Dr. Eric Rignot, offered this explanation: “I see [global warming] as the main driver for the change in ice mass. And this means that we are not in a natural cycle but in something that is related to global warming or global climate change, whichever you want to call it.” Read the rest of this entry »
Last night, while answering a question on space exploration, one presidential candidate suggested that another presidential candidate be sent to Mars. This is NOT funny and may constitute a threat (which might be investigated by the Secret Service).
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee outlined one special plan he’d consider for NASA’s exploration of space.
“Maybe Hillary can be on the first rocket to Mars,” he said, referring to the Democratic presidential frontrunner.
The Republican presidential candidate responded to a question asking if more money would be put into space exploration. His witty response about Clinton generated cheers from the St. Petersburg audience and followed his description of the earthly benefits of NASA’s programs.
CANDIDATES: Get Serious and Get a Life!
Such behavior almost justifies this illustration credited to blogger Melissa McEwan:
As an impressionable fourth grader at the height of the Cold War, the faint sound that was broadcast via Radio Moscow on October 4, 1957 might has well been the shot heard around the world:
Beep-beep-beep-beep-beep.
Indeed, the sound from the radio transmitters aboard tiny Sputnik, the first artificial satellite, did herald enormous changes.
It shocked a complacent U.S. into a paranoia-tinged space race with the Soviet Union and humankind into a new era of science and technology that promised to be liberating but with the hindsight of 50 years has been, in my view, an enormously expensive and only qualified success because it turned the attention of world’s powers away from pressing needs here on Mother Earth.
John Noble Wilford, The New York Times‘ laureate science writer, takes a more sanguine – and wordier – view.
An interesting read over at Pajamas Media… Buzz Aldrin and Taylor Dinerman explain why NASA has to go back to the moon.
An excerpt:
NASA unveiled its plans for a base on December 4th, 2006. The lunar base is to be built on one of the Moon’s poles, probably the south one, which is lit by the Sun at least 75 percent of the time. “Our objective is to create a enduring sustainable human and robotic presence that will open up vastly greater opportunities for science, research and technological development,� Shana Dale NASA’s Deputy Administrator explained. The base will be manned by teams of astronauts who will rotate in and out every six months.
As it expands, scientists will be able to use it as a base from which they can not only explore the moon, but will be able to build a very large radio telescope on the far side where it will be able to observe the universe shielded from the electromagnetic pollution put out by our civilization’s relentless hunger for wireless bandwidth.
On the moon’s pitted face, facing the Earth, observation platforms could be built to scrutinize the home planet’s climate and geophysics. Telescope apertures can be made as large as necessary and their performance will eclipse the Earth observation satellites now in orbit. Using a network of very large distributed hyperspectral sensors, the Earth’s environment can be persistently monitored with an accuracy and scope far greater than is possible with today’s orbiting telescopes. Unlike most satellites in orbit, these sensors will be accessible to humans, making them easier to repair or improve.
The greatest potential prize on the Moon is energy. “If the world’s 9 billion in 2050 used energy at the rate that Americans to today… the world would have to generate 102.2 terawatts,� writes MIT Professor Daniel Nocera in the Fall, 2006 issue of the quarterly Daedalus. Considering that the world only generates 13.5 terawatts today, the future needs of humanity may be impossible to meet from purely terrestrial sources. Nuclear, hydro and wind power will just not be enough. Even if you are skeptical of human induced global warming theories, generating that amount of energy from coal or natural gas would create more pollution than we may be prepared to tolerate.
They also write that the United Government doesn’t have to ‘own’ the base permanently: “control could be handed over to a private non-profit consortium that would lease space to companies and governments which will then pursue their individual goals, such as energy, research, tourism, or developing the technology and supplies needed for further space exploration.”
They also emphasize the importance of space exploration for educational purposes.
I’m wondering what your thoughts on this are. The U.S. spends a lot of money on space exploration / NASA, some might argue that this money would be better spent on, say, fighting poverty, universal health care coverage, etc. Others, on the other hand, might agree with Aldrin and Dinerman.
I understand the value / importance of the exploration of space and of, for instance, this base on the moon, and it seems to me that it could be money well spent. Obviously, it costs a lot of money, so one has to choose one’s projects with extreme care. I’m confident, though, that this base is a project with an enormous potential.
This isn’t something that will merely benefit Americans, it’s something that will / might benefit the whole of mankind. As such it seems logical to argue that nations should work very closely together… thus sharing the costs.
The conference on Global Catastrophic Risks is meeting in the U.K. this week, and Reason Magazine provides a rundown of the major threats we face from outisde the planet, and more to the point, what industrialized nations like ours are doing about it.
