His dramatic return this week to cast the deciding vote for a crucial Medicare bill brought tears and cheers in the US Senate, even as some medical ethicists question Ted Kennedy’s decision to undergo life-prolonging (and expensive) surgery, chemotherapy and radiation.
On the New York Times Freakonomics blog, an internist involved in public health issues suggests Sen. Kennedy might have issued this statement instead:
“Because I am not a young man, the cancer in my brain will progress rapidly and is likely to incapacitate me in the near future. I trust that my doctors will do everything they can to prevent further seizures and to keep me in comfort. I will not endure extraordinary excess pain and suffering, while hundreds of thousand of dollars will not be spent on surgical debulking, radiation, and chemotherapeutic regimens which do not work.
“Modern medicine cannot cure my cancer, but it can keep me comfortable and free of pain. I have already contacted the Massachusetts General Hospital Hospice program.”
If such a suggestion seems heartless, it nonetheless reflects a crucial debate that has started about end-of-life care, which accounts for a significant percentage of Medicare expenditures.
Lots of exciting changes have occurred in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in December 2007. Yet overall, the outlook hasn’t changed much. Democrats will pick up seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats, and all their incumbents are running again. The Republicans have drawn the short straw, trying to protect 23 seats with five incumbents retiring in a tough political environment for the GOP.
It is still too early to project the exact size of expected Democratic gains, but it will be a major surprise if Democrats fail to add at least three or four seats. The total of projected Democratic gains may well rise considerably, possibly five to seven, depending on the electoral conditions prevailing in the fall. The GOP’s only real hope in Senate contests is that John McCain wins the Presidency handily, generating coattail in some key match-ups. In any event, the Democrats currently seem unlikely to hit the magic number of 60 seats, needed to shut down filibusters. (That assumes all 60 Democrats would stick together on key votes. Good luck.)
As we noted in an earlier analysis, the Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D), 1994 (D to R), 2001 (R to D), 2002 (D to R), and 2006 (R to D). This is no longer a rare event. Still, 2008 is virtually certain not to generate a seventh such shift. Let’s go to the states and see why….
We have now gone through 20 of the 50 states and the tally stands as follows
President: Senator Obama leads Senator McCain 123-108, which is up 16 from the 2004 contest.
Senate: The Democrats are up 1 seat which would give them 51 seats (with Senator Sanders of Vermont) to 48 seats for the GOP and then Senator Lieberman who could go either way.
House: So far the Democrats lead 103-84 which is up 1 seat from 2006.
I will continue with the state by state summary, which is hopefully of interest to our readers.
Maryland has long been a solid state for the Democrats though it does from time to time support the GOP. But not very often.
President: If Obama has any trouble winning Maryland then he is on his way to a massive defeat. I don’t expect this to happen.
Safe Democrat
House: Democrats will retain the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th. Republicans should hold their seats in the 1st and 6th disticts, though the defeat of incumbent Wayne Gilchrest by conservative Andrew Harris could make the 1st a target seat.
When FDR ran for re-election in 1936 the only two states to oppose him were Maine and Vermont. Both states have changed considerably since then, moving far to the left from 1936.
President: Senator McCain has been popular in New England while Senator Obama has not. But since the 1960’s, Maine has a long history of supporting Democrats for President.
McCain could make things close, or even split the vote by carrying one of the Congressional Districts. But I doubt it.
Leans Democrat
Senate: Incumbent Susan Collins (R) is pitted against Congressman Thomas Allen (D). With only two House seats in the state, Allen is basically a statewide official with high name recognition.
Given the Democratic trend in the state this began as one of the DSCC’s top targets but Collins has proved difficult to catch. Polls all year have shown her well ahead and the various analysts across the country are now calling this a likely hold
Leans Republican
House: Democrats will have little trouble holding both House seats
Lousiana is another of the states that tends to vote a mixed bag, Democratic for many offices but often Republican for President.
President: Obama would like to target the state but after Katrina the African American vote has been seriously reduced. With or without Governor Jindal on the ticket this should be a strong state for McCain.
Safe Republican
Senate: This is one of the few GOP Senate targets in 2008 but seems to have been drifting out of their reach recently. Incumbent Mary Landrieu barely won the seat in 2002 (in a runoff election) and she has been fairly controversial during her tenure.
The GOP recruited State Treasurer John Kennedy by convincing him to switch parties. He is a popular man but may suffer from those who resent his party switch.
Leans Democrat
House: Democrats will coast to victory in the 2nd and 3rd while the GOP will retain the 1st, 5th and 7th. Incumbent crook William Jefferson may lose in the 2nd District Democratic primary though.
In the 4th District incumbent Jim McCrery is retiring and there will be a strong contest to replace him in this generally Republican seat.
The GOP will choose between former Coroner and physician John Fleming, businessman Chris Gorman and attorney Jeff Thompson. Fleming would seem to have a slight edge due to name recognition.
The Democrats have to pick between attorney Willie Banks, Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche, minister Artis Cash of Shreveport and attorney John Milkovich. Carmouche would seem to have an edge due to his public profile.
The GOP nature of the district seems likely to endure.
Leans Republican
In the 6th District we have incumbent Donald Cazayoux (who won a special election earlier this year) against Republican State Senator William Cassidy. I had considered this to lean to the Democrats until State Senator Michael Jackson (D) entered the race as an independent.
Jackson is black and will exploit the split between the black and white segments of the Democratic party. If so, he will doom the seat for his party.
He still might pull out before November but as long as he is in the race this is another GOP gain.
Leans Republican
With this pickup for the GOP the net Democratic gain is down to +1.
Kentucky is a unique state politically, voting Republican for the most part at the federal level but supporting Democrats for state offices. There is therefore a strong base for both parties in the Presidential race.
President: This will be a prime target for both parties, the state supported Clinton twice and Bush twice. Obama will try to take advantage of the minority vote and try to gain support with labor. McCain will rely on the traditional GOP base and may try to appeal to unhappy Clinton voters.
It will be close but I think Obama’s problems with blue collar/Clinton voters will be too much to overcome
Leans Republican
Senate: This will be a tight battle between incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) and former Gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford (D). Some polls have shown Lunsford running close but he has tended to run better in polling than in performance during his 2003 and 2007 races for Governor.
McConnell is also a fundraising expert and will have plenty of money to spend. This race is one to watch and will probably shift around in the ratings between now and November, but for the moment McConnell has the edge
Leans Republican
House: Democrats will keep control in the 6th district while Republicans will rule in the 1st, 4th and 5th.
In the 2nd District we have incumbent Ron Lewis (R) retiring and this is a marginally GOP district. The contest will be between two state senators, Republican Brett Guthrie and Democrat David Boswell. If the Democrats have a really good year they could take this seat but with most of the attention in the 3rd I would give the GOP the edge.
Leans Republican
In the 3rd District we have freshman John Yarmuth versus former incumbent and candidate for Governor Ann Northrup. Northrup was controversial and has remained so. There is enough of a GOP base to make the race close but I would give the edge to Yarmuth
Kansas is traditionally one of the most Republican states in the nation and I would expect that to remain the same, though there is a chance that could change.
President: No Democrat as come even close to carrying Kansas in 40 years and unless Obama picks Governor Sebelius that is unlikely to change. Even with her on the ticket the GOP would have a slight edge.
Safe Republican
Senate: The GOP is even stronger when it comes to Senate races in Kansas. In fact the last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Kansas neither Presidential candidate was alive. Incumbent Pat Roberts will easily defeat his Democratic opponent Lee Jones.
Safe Republican
House: Republicans will hold on to the 1st and 4th District with ease. The GOP will target both Democratic seats but incumbent Dennis Moore should hold on.
In the 2nd District we have incumbent Nancy Boyda against former Congressman Jim Ryun. Boyda was one of the major upset winners in 2006 and will be hard pressed to hold her seat against a McCain/Roberts tide. Given the GOP nature of the district it looks to be a pickup.
Leans Republican
With this gain for the Republicans the Democrats are now +2 in the House
July 11th, 2008 by DR. CLARISSA PINKOLA ESTÉS, TMV Columnist
Phil Gramm of Texas is not known as a man of developed intellect nor steady statesmanship. He’s known for pork-barreling, for speaking in crude ways, for blurting out unseemly epithets at American citizens, and for jeering at the unfortunate.
His words this week are not the first time this privileged, pampered and wealthy man has frothed with scorn at the poor, the jobless, the uninsured, the homeless, the foreclosed upon, the working class, and the unprotected. The times he’s done this are legion, year after year, decade after decade.
It worked for him once. But no more. Except he seems to have not caught on yet that his days of goring and glory came long ago, and his time in the sun and scrum is now long, long gone. He won’t regain his position. Not ever again… for Gramm has nothing to offer that a guy sitting at his computer in his boxers, spewing sarcasm and screed over the internet, can’t do too, and with ten times more finesse.
By virtue of Gramm’s worn-out ideas and his seeming nostalgia for a zeitgeist made of back-room ‘bar and cigar’ deals in the old log-rolling style of politics, Gramm is a remnant of the old ingrown politicians of his time 40 years ago.
He is a relic and by dint of his mindset, an irrelevant anachronism… as out of date as the old bathrobe over-coated Communists of Brandt’s time are irrelevant in the new economy, struggles, and spirit in a united Germany today
That Gramm is held out as McCain’s “highest economic adviser” is like saying Sylvester the Cat is going to be advising the Senator on the care and treatment of canaries.
Gramm will sink Senator McCain if he is allowed to continue in ‘highest economic advisory’ capacity. McCain has a certain dignity that Gramm will splat on, over and over again.
If Barack’s “crazy uncle” is the Reverend Wright who spoke whatever he felt like speaking after the Moyers interview, disregarding how his speech would negatively affect public perception of his friend running for POTUS, then for certain Gramm is Senator McCain’s crazy uncle … with exactly the same M.O…. complete disregard for how his foolish and churlish speech will negatively affect Senator McCain.
Gramm, before he left the Federal legislature ‘to spend more time with his family’ in the midst of a supposedly successful career, was known for saying deeply insightful things about economics and commerce. Here are some quotes from Gramm:
“Half the world does not know the joys of wearing cotton underwear.” (promoting US exports, as quoted in Time)”
“I’m carrying so much pork [home to Texas] I’m beginning to get trichinosis.”
“If I bought groceries the way I buy health insurance, I’d eat a lot better - and so would my dog”
“I have the most reliable friend you can have in American politics, and that is ready money.”
_________________
CODA
Tomorrow: Gramm’s reprehensible treatment of impoverished, ill, and laid-off American mining families, a class of people whom Gramm also taunted as ‘whiners.’
It’s a given that presidential candidates who are running for president are going to miss a vote or three, but the situation with John McCain is ridiculous.
The Republican wannabe has not voted since April 8, missing a total of 76 votes. This includes several key votes on important legislation, among them Social Security, which he views as “a total disgrace,” and expanding veterans’ GI bill benefits, which he vociferously opposed and then took credit for after that bill passed.
Ted Kennedy, who is not running for president but merely for his life because of brain cancer, went where McCain no longer treads yesterday and cast the decisive vote in favor of moving the Medicare bill on to final passage.
Kennedy received a sustained standing ovation for his valor; McCain, who was the only senator to miss the vote, deserves a raspberry.
And needs someone to tell him that between missing Senate votes, joking about killing Iranians with American cigarettes and being an amnesiac on cue when confronted with one of his myriad flip flops, he is running an extraordinarily ham-handed campaign that at many turns casts him as not only unpresidential, but a real goofball.
Iowa was one of the key swing states in both 2000 and 2004 and this seems likely to continue in 2008.
President: Bush lost Iowa narrowly in 2000 and won it narrowly in 2004. I was somewhat surprised given the strong anti war tradition in the state but the GOP got a strong turnout with Christian conservatives. This year however I think the anti war and anti Republican sentiment will tip the state back to the Democrats
Leans Democrat
Senate: Incumbent Tom Harkin is one of the most liberal members of the Senate and one of the most secure.
Safe Democrat
House: All 5 incumbents (3 Dem and 2 GOP) are safe.
With 15 states down the count stands as follows
President: Obama leads 109-85 with a net gain of 16 votes from 2004
This state could become a battleground *IF* Senator Evan Bayh joins the Obama ticket but that does not seem likely at this point, at least based on comments from Bayh.
President: With Bayh on the ticket it would be a tossup but otherwise this is solid for McCain. Democrats only win the state in landslide years.
Safe Republican
Governor: At one point incumbent Mitch Daniels looked to be vulnerable but his poll ratings have rebounded and he never lost the lead in the election matchups. Veteran Democrat Jill Long Thompson will try to change that but I think she won’t be able to.
Republican Favored
House: Democrats should keep the 1st, 2nd, 7th and 8th while Republicans are secure in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th.
In the 9th District incumbent Baron Hill (D) will repeat his 2006 race with former incumbent Mark Sodrel and while the same outcome is likely, this is one of the few GOP targets so they will pour the money in.
Even if local Barack Obama were not on the ballot this would be a secure state for the Democrats. Between the massive vote out of Chicago and the slumping GOP tide downstate it is impossible for the GOP to win.
President: Safe Democrat
Senate: The only issue is if incumbent Richard Durbin (D) can outpoll Obama’s 2004 landslide.
Safe Democrat
House: Most of the incumbents here are secure with 10 Democrats and 6 Republicans considered fairly safe.
In the 10th District incumbent Mark Kirk and Democrat Daniel Seals are in a rematch of their close 2006 race. Kirk will be hard pressed with the likely Obama tide but he has the edge
Leans Republican
In the 11th District incumbent Jerry Weller is retiring and he will probably be succeeded by State Senator Debbie Halvorson but Republican Marty Ozinga will try to stop that.
Democrat Favored
In the 14th District we have a rematch of the special election for the seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert. Incumbent Bill Foster will probably defeat Republican Jim Oberweis
Democrat Favored
With the probable pickup here Democrats are up +3 in the House and +1 in the Senate
Idaho is for the Republicans what Hawaii is for the Democrats, a safe set of Electoral votes. The state has been both entertained and disgusted by Larry Craig but that will have little impact in November.
President: Obama’s odds here are only slightly better than mine, and I’m not running.
Safe Republican
Senate: Incumbent Larry Craig is retiring and his successor will be James Risch.
One of the quietest states this fall will be the Aloha State. Long one of the most Democratic states in the Union (though interestingly one of the most Republican prior to statehood) it should remain so this fall.
President: Senator Obama will win the state with ease. Only 2 Republicans have won since statehood and both times in landslide years.
Safe Democrat
House: Both incumbents are Democrats and secure in November.
Florida is always one of the key battlegrounds and this November will be no different. Recent polls have been back and forth but I suspect that there will be a clear trend prior to Election Day
President: No candidate from either party can afford to write off 27 electoral votes and I expect both sides to make a strong run for the state this year. Recent polling has shown a razor tight race but I think a few factors favor McCain here.
Hispanic voters are a key base to the Democrats in Florida and they have not shown great enthusiasm for Obama in the primaries. While I assume most will support Obama I also think many will stay home on election day. The same holds true for older voters who were strongly Clinton in the primaries and may be uncomfortable supporting a black candidate for President.
Leans Republican
House:As with most states most of the House seats are safe. Since Florida has many seats I will not be naming the safe ones district by district, but I see 14 Republicans and 8 Democrats as safe.
In the 13th District we have a rematch between incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) and Democrat Christine Jennings. This was one of the closest races in 2006 (decided by 369 votes) and there were allegations of fraud.
Jennings will make it a close race again but the advantage of incumbency will help out Buchanan.
Leans Republican
In the 15th District we have an open seat due to the retirement of Dave Weldon (R). Republicans will choose between several candidates but State Senator William Posey seems to have the edge. Democrats will pick between physician Steve Blythe and veteran Paul Rancatore.
The GOP has the edge here but any open seat is up for grabs this year.
Republican Favored
In the 16th District we have freshman Tim Mahoney (D) running for re-election. This was Mark Foley’s seat and the GOP would like to retake it. The Republicans will probably chose State Rep Gayle Harrell but the primary is likely to be hard fought.
Delaware has gradually evolved into one of the more Democratic states in the country so there will be little good news for the GOP this fall. It is also one of the few states to have an election for Governor (well sort of).
President: The state has not voted Republican in 20 years and there is almost no chance that this will change in the near future.
Safe Democrat
Governor: Delaware is one of only 11 states to elect Governors in Presidential years and this is an open race since incumbent Ruth Ann Minner (D) is retiring. Minner has not been popular and this would usually give the GOP an opening but they are in such bad shape that it took them until a couple weeks ago to get someone willing to run.
Retired judge Bill Lee will be the Republican candidate while the Democrats ar picking between Lt. Governor John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell. Either one would be heavily favored.
Democrat Favored
Senate: Incumbent Joe Biden (D) is heavily favored to win re-election to the seat he has held since he was 30 years old. Republican Christine O’Donnell will have the honor of losing this time around.
Safe Democrat
House: One of the few bright spots for the Republicans is former Governor and 8 term Congressman Mike Castle who will easily defeat any of his little known challengers.
Like much of New England, Connecticut is one of the more Democratic states in the country so there will be little good news for the GOP this fall.
President: The state has not voted Republican in 20 years and there is almost no chance that this will change in the near future.
Safe Democrat
House: Connecticut holds the distinction of having the only GOP House member left in New England and there will be a real battle over that fact this fall. The Democrats should easily hold the 1st, 2nd and 3rd District.
In the 4th District, incumbent Christopher Shays (R) will face political activist Jim Himes. This will be a very close race but since Shays survived 2006 I would give him the edge
Leans Republican
In the 5th District freshman Chris Murphy (D) will face State Senator David Cappiello. While the GOP will work hard to take the seat back it will be hard to do so, especially with the Democratic trend in the state.
I happen to think the FISA bill is a terrible piece of legislation — and not just because of the telecom issue — but I am pretty sure it’s going to pass. That’s not what this is about.
What this is about is the reasons I’m hearing from various highly-placed public officials why I and America need this so-called compromise. Do they take me for a fool? Yes, they take me for a fool. Either that, or they are banking on the entire American public being as civics-impaired as rumored. In any case, we’re being played, possibly in the hope that if they say enough soothing things about why America needs FISA because national security requires it we’ll get bored with the whole thing or frightened and drop it. (I mean, who really believes anymore that we have any privacy? Not me.)
Colorado is likely to be one of the major battlegrounds in November from the top of the ballot to the bottom. The state has been seen as Republican but has been moving towards the Democrats as the Hispanic population grows.
President: Bush won this state twice but Bill Clinton took it in 1992. Obama is expected to make this a major target in the fall. Recent polls show him with a lead outside the margin of error and thus at this point he is likely to pick it up.
Leans Democrat.
Senate: Incumbent Wayne Allard (R) has won two narrow victories but has decided to retire rather than face likely defeat. Democrats have tapped very popular Congressman Mark Udall while the GOP is lined up behind former Congressman Bob Schaffer.
Recent polls show Udall with a solid lead.
Leans Democrat
House: Colorado has seven House seats but most remain secure. The Democrats will retain 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th while the GOP will hold the 5th.
In the 4th CD, incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R) is seeking re-election and is opposed by Senate aide Betsy Markey. Musgrave won narrowly in 2006 but could be in trouble this year with the expected Democratic tide.
Leans Democrat
In the 6th District incumbent Tom Tancredo stepped down to run for President. Democrats have tapped Hank Eng while the GOP will choose between State Senators Steve Ward and Ted Harvey. The district does favor the Republicans but a bitter primary could hurt them.
Leans Republican
With the results from Colorado the Democrats have made gains all across the board.
For President the Democrats are up 9 votes, in the Senate they are up 1 seat and in the House they are up 2 seats.
