Eric Allie, Caglecartoons.com

As the Bush era draws to a close, Europeans are anxious to know what about American policy will change when he’s gone - particularly if a Democratic victory occurs as planned.

According to this lead article from French business magazine Challenges, while a Democrat in the White House will mean a leftward tilt - it won’t be anything like the European left - and it certainly won’t mean the end to American Exceptionalism.

The article says in part:

“In view of the ongoing presidential campaign, the American exception seems as strong as ever. Where else but in America would a primary race go on for more than a year? Where else would candidates obtain tens of millions of dollars a month from their supporters? Where else would party foot soldiers have the chance to select the candidate for the highest post? … All three candidates take lyrical flight in discussing the American dream. Above all, none will hesitate to resort to force.”

And in describing what a Democratic regime might look like, the article cautions:

“Clearly, a Democratic victory in November would undoubtedly open the door to a more left-wing America. But it would be a kind of American left, certainly not modeled on Europe. Both candidates have rejected a “single payer” system for health insurance, like the Canadian and European models. The change ahead will not mean the end of the American exception, but the end of American triumphalism.”

LEADING ARTICLE

Translated By Kate Davis

May 8, 2008

France - Challenges - Original Article (French)

All countries are exceptional. But the United States gladly considers itself exceptionally exceptional, different from all other developed countries in its social organization and its fundamental values. The State is less extensive and the distribution of wealth more unequal. The United States is also more strongly committed to what Margaret Thatcher called the “Victorian values:” individualism, voluntarism, patriotism.

Thus the Bush government, which supports conservative values domestically and demonstrates an unlimited self confidence externally, is the most “exceptional” known in recent years. But at the end of Bush’s mandate, isn’t the United States entering a new cycle, characterized by the rejection of conservatism and a convergence with Europe’s standards?

In reality, three quarters of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and for example, vigorously support a system of universal health care. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both have promised to address that. They also want to improve their image in the world. The next government will certainly initiate significant reforms, such as closing Guantanamo or adopting a more rigorous environmental policy in order to address some of the country’s more aberrant characteristics.

Yet in view of the ongoing presidential campaign, the American exception seems as strong as ever. Where else but in America would a primary race go on for more than a year? Where else would candidates obtain tens of millions of dollars a month from their supporters? Where else would party foot soldiers have the chance to select the candidate for the highest post? John McCain won the nomination of his party despite strong internal opposition. Barack Obama is the leader of an uprising against the Democratic old guard.

All three preach a patriotism specific to the United States. John McCain boasts of his service in Vietnam. Barack Obama claims that there is no red or blue, but only one America united by common values. The three candidates take lyrical flight in discussing the American dream. Above all, none will hesitate to resort to force. John McCain sings, “Bomb, bomb [bomb, bomb bomb] Iran.”

READ ON AT WORLDMEETS.US, along with continuing translated foreign press coverage of the U.S. elections.

How dirty does the upcoming 2008 campaign promise to be? The focus has been on what the GOP might try to do to Democratic Senator Barack Obama if he gets the Democratic presidential nomination. But MSNBC’s David Shuster contends that the Republicans also have a treasure chest of goodies ready to use against Senator Hillary Clinton if she heads the ticket:

Two Republican officials at the Republican National Committee who are involved in “opposition research efforts” in preparation for the general election say the RNC’s oppo research dossier on Sen. Clinton runs more than 1,200 pages in length.

FYI: In some newsrooms two sources (not named in the story but revealed to editors) are enough to confirm a story. Some editors insist on three if it’s a huge development. MORE:

According to these officials, the book includes “previously undisclosed information about Hillary Clinton’s connections to the Whitewater scandal, travel office firings, and Democratic fundraising efforts.” Given that the book has not been shared with us, we’ve been unable to confirm this assertion. Furthermore, the Republican officials would not describe the nature of the “new information.”

However, I was not directed away from a front-page story in today’s Washington Times about memos/documents from the estate of Sam Dash, Ken Starr’s ethics adviser during the early stages of the Whitewater investigation. The Dash Whitewater memos and documents have been turned over to the Library of Congress (where they were presumably available to the Washington Times reporter/researcher). The documents reportedly show that prosecutors concluded that Hillary Clinton concealed information and misled a federal grand jury about her work for the Savings and Loan at the heart of the Whitewater investigation. The allegation that she concealed and misled is not new, and was sourced by reporters who covered the investigation in the 1990s (including me) to “attorneys close to Starr” or “sources in the office of the independent counsel.

The documents from Dash’s estate, however, mark the first available “documentary evidence” that Ken Starr’s office drafted a criminal indictment of Senator Clinton, also known as a “pros memo” and debated verbally and through written memos whether Clinton should actually face charges.

According to Shuster, they decided not to go after Clinton because they had doubts about the strength of their evidence and their ability to convict a first lady.

But such memos, documents, and etc. about the internal debate in the office of the independent counsel could be a gold mine for negative ads, etc.

So this means Obama is pristine and won’t face negative campaigning that will fill hours of air time for Sean and Rush et al? Hardly.

By the way, to put the RNC’s opposition research effort into context, I’m told the dossier on Senator Obama is 1,000 pages in length and that Republican researchers spent a few weeks in Chicago recently collecting information on Obama’s ties to the Weather Underground” and separately to Tony Rezko (who is currently on trial for federal corruption charges).

The difference here is: Clinton’s campaign has been saying she is totally vetted and that there is nothing new that can come out or be used against her. If there are some alleged 1,200 pages to play with, it’s unlikely that she’d face a free issue-oriented path to the White House.

Prediction: The formidable slime/distraction machine will run…no matter who is the Democratic nominee.

Earlier this week, I interviewed the author and political pundit, Cliff Schecter about his latest book, The Real McCain: Why Conservatives Don’t Trust Him - and Why Independents Shouldn’t. You can read more about the book at its website and I also recommend this article in U.S. News and World Report.

In his book, Schecter makes the case for why, although he supported McCain in his run in 2000, McCain no longer deserves support and in fact, his candidacy should be fought actively, without hesitation and on all fronts. Schecter outlines his reasons for these sentiments and fills in those reasons with more details than you may be able to absorb. Schecter draws a portrait of both McCain’s political trajectory and the parallel trajectory of how his political choices since 2001 are a thumbing of his nose at the very people who got him to the presidential precipice in the first place.

A couple of disclosures before I offer you my phone interview with Cliff: I’ve never been a McCain supporter. And I haven’t known of Schecter that long either - here’s the first post I ever wrote about Schecter. However, it was fascinating talking to someone with a seemingly vast knowledge base about someone whom I’ve never really studied.

JMZ: You argue on behalf of former McCain supporters who should be able to realize that McCain isn’t what he once was. Who, then, is the alternative and why?

CS: Well. There’s always, “What we have versus what we’d like to have.” I’m an Obama supporter and he has a lot of appeal to Independents. But he hasn’t done it the way McCain did it – by attacking his own party in big speeches. Obama has done it by standing up, not by splitting. Obama talks about rising above partisanship and reaching out to all people on all sides and getting past the muck where politics has gotten so nasty. Obama says, I’m going to talk to you like an adult. And that’s what McCain had called “straight talk” – but he hasn’t given us much of that [this election cycle.]
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Cartoonists are having a field day with the results from last night’s Indiana and North Carolina Democratic primaries. A large number of them are lampooning Hillary Clinton and the Democratic party’s divisions.

Here are three of the most timely ones (we’ll run others throughout the day tomorrow):

Pat Bagley, Salt Lake Tribune

Mike Lester, The Rome News-Tribune

RJ Matson, Roll Call

So now that the North Carolina and Indiana primaries are over — ending in split decision wins — who are the winners and losers in Tuesday’s primaries? Is it just Senator Barack Obama (who won North Carolina) or Senator Hillary Clinton (who narrowly won Indiana)?

Is it that clearcut? Here’s our take:

WINNERS:

Senator Barack Obama for winning a victory in North Carolina that went beyond the conventional media wisdom that was building — that he could lose there.

Senator Hillary Clinton for surviving by winning Indiana and keeping her candidacy alive, although some insist it is now on life support..and the batteries are almost dead.

Conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh for his reprehensible “Operation Chaos” campaign to convince voters to use their precious right to vote to sandbag another party that appears to have worked in Indiana. Data suggests it had an impact.

Zogby polling for its final poll on North Carolina. Matt Drudge who yes indeed did call it earlier in the day (and we had our doubts about that report…).

LOSERS:

Senator Barack Obama for not being able to end Clinton’s candidacy with two solid wins (this could change if the final Indiana vote changes).

Senator Hillary Clinton for not just losing to Obama in North Carolina while aides talked about her gathering momentum, but for starting out Campaign 2008 with a good chunk of black voter support and ending the night with shockingly low black voter support (remember that at the beginning of the campaign Obama had a problem getting African Americans to vote for him and against a Clinton).

The Limbaugh “dittoheads” who felt the precious vote for which so many have died should be tossed away to sabotage another political party, as if democracy in a time of national crisis were some cutesy game (and we add in this category any Democrats who also played the same game crossing over in Republican primaries).

THE BIGGEST LOSERS:

The Superdelegates who will either have to act soon…or later…to put an end to the contest and face the possibility that, no matter what they decide, half of the committed Democrats won’t vote for the candidate they opposed (which some feel means they should be committed).

Political pandering: By most accounts of the talking heads and experts, Clinton’s embracing of the gas holiday tax and dismissive comment that she didn’t have to listen to economists didn’t do her much good and probably hurt her.

To read some excellent analytical live blogging on the night’s voting GO HERE.

What happens next? The media and weblogs are filled with tidbits about a night that could have been a “game changer,” but not what Clinton had in mind.

UPDATE: An interesting post from Talk Left’s Big Tent Democrat (one of the best pro-Clinton bloggers on the Internet) on what Clinton should do next:

My own view is she should run her campaign against John McCain. She will win West Virginia and Kentucky by huge margins.

She might even challenge Obama in Oregon.

What she should not do, imo, is run against Barack Obama. If there is a path to the nomination for her, and I doubt there is, it won’t come from attacking Obama now.

Some additional tidbits and excerpts:

–The Politico: Clinton cancels morning shows:

Tim Russert, a colleague reports, just said that Hillary Clinton canceled her scheduled appearances on the morning shows tomorrow.

It’s a sign of weakness she can ill afford at a moment when questions about whether she can continue are mounting.

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Why is the man above smiling? Because, apparently, he has a RIGHT to.

If all goes according to projections and Senator Hillary Clinton somewhat narrowly wins the Indiana Democratic primary (CBS has projected she will narrowly win it), he has a right to smile. Because if early indications are correct, conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh may have provided a textbook case of the influence of radio talk show hosts on partisans in the 21st century.

His “Operation Chaos” — designed to get his listeners to vote whenever they can in Democratic primaries for Clinton to prolong the Democrats’ highly divisive Clinton/Barack Obama Presidential nomination — could have given the Cinton the winning edge, if the victory margin in the end is like what seems to be shaping up now. The New Republic’s The Plank:

Some reporters have speculated about the impact of the “Limbaugh effect” — partisan Republicans crossing over to vote fr Hillary Clinton solely to help weaken the Democrats against John McCain. The sieze of the effect is hard to measure. But there is one numerical measurement, first pointed out to me by the Pew Survey’s Richard Auxier following the Pennsylvania primary, that gives some sense of it.

One exit poll question asks Indiana voters who they would support in a Clinton-McCain contest. 17% of them say McCain. Of those voters, 41% say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. In other words, these voters, 7% of the Indiana electorate, voted for Clinton in the primary but have no intention of supporting her in the fall.

Now, this isn’t a precise measure of the “Limbaugh effect” — no doubt there are some Republicans who backed Obama in the primary out of anti-Clinton sentiment, but plan to vote for McCain in November. But it is a good place to start when making a ballpark estimate. And it’s a sizeable number — 7% may wind up being as big as her margin of victory.

The Huffington Post’s Sam Stein looks at exit polls and reaches the same conclusion: Limbaugh played a role in motivating some voters whose motive was basically to sabatoge the Democratic primary…something some Democrats have tried in cross-over primaries the past but not on such an organized, sustained and serious scale. Stein’s post must be read full but here are some excerpts:

Did Rush Limbaugh actually impact the Democratic primary?

The loud-mouthed radio talk show host has been encouraging Republicans to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton to continue the “chaos” in the Democratic race. And a sampling of some key exit poll information suggests he may, to a certain extent, be having an effect.

Thirty-six percent of primary voters said that Clinton does not share their values. And yet, among that total, one out of every five (20 percent) nevertheless voted for her in the Indiana election. Moreover, of the 10 percent of Hoosiers who said “neither candidate” shared their values, 75 percent cast their ballots for Clinton.

These are not small numbers. By comparison, of the 33 percent of voters who said Sen. Barack Obama does not share their values, only seven percent cast their ballots in his favor. Basically, more people who don’t relate to Clinton are, for one reason or another, still voting for her. These are not likely to be loyal supporters.

He goes into some detail then writes:

The numbers suggest one of three things: A) Clinton’s support in Indiana, while clearly there, is not entirely solid; B) a large swath of Indiana primary goers simply didn’t like the nominees and thought of Clinton as the lesser of two evils; or C) Limbaugh’s hatchet plan could be having political ripples.

Perhaps it’s a mix of all three.

Republican partisans will applaud what truly seems to be a Limbaugh success. And his “legend” as someone who can press a button and get followers to do his bidding (or jettison previous beliefs and get with the party line) will grow. Some Hillary Clinton supporters will say Well, what does it matter why they vote the way the do — they have the right to vote as they vote. (Which they do.)

But there is an ineffable stench of political sleaziness when Republicans — and Democrats — decide to cross party lines to sandbag the other party. Who would have ever thought 20 or 30 — or 10 — years ago that partisans of either party would vote in another party’s primary specifically to prolong the other party’s turmoil or weaken that party’s candidate? There have been charges that siphoning off another party’s votes has been used via third parties but this hasn’t been an actual calculated strategy until now. Welcome to mega partisan 2008.

Perhaps when Superdelegates look at these numbers, it might influence their perceptions on the components of the Indiana vote….particularly as Limbaugh starts hyping his impact and if the mainstream media latches on to the story.

P.S. Limbaugh’s power isn’t just because he’s a partisan. He is also a talented, first-class broadcaster who knows how to use the broadcast medium and get and hold an audience. He makes it look easy, and it isn’t — which is why so many other conservative and progressive talk show hosts have failed.

This may be the first vote in which his influence can be measured in qualitative terms.

UPDATES:
–Read Andrew Sullivan.

CBS News has projected that Senator Hillary Clinton will win the Indiana Democratic Presidential primary — a result that means the evening of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries ended in a split decision for what increasingly appears to be a split political party:

Clinton pulled off an Indiana win in what was a virtual must-win Midwestern state. With 50 percent of the votes being reported in the state, she was leading Obama 55 percent to 45 percent.

Obama’s win mirrored earlier triumphs in Southern states with large black populations: Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina among them. With 14 percent of the votes in North Carolina being reported, Obama was leading Clinton 63 percent to 35 percent.

CBS News exit poll results show that most voters in both states made up their minds a while ago. Only 17 percent in Indiana and 14 percent in North Carolina decided in the last three days. Twenty-four percent in Indiana and 18 percent in North Carolina decided in the last week.

Late deciders backed Clinton in Indiana by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent for Obama. In North Carolina, Obama won late deciders by a much smaller margin of 49 percent to 48 percent.

And the important issues?

As it has been throughout the Democratic primaries, the economy was the most important issue in both states with 65 percent of voters in Indiana describing it as such and 60 percent in North Carolina. In Indiana, 50 percent of voters said Clinton would be more likely to improve the economy and 46 percent said that Obama would. In North Carolina, 52 percent said that Obama would be more likely to improve the economy and 42 percent said that Clinton would.

Nearly half of voters in both states said the situation with Obama’s former pastor Reverend Wright was important in their vote, while half said that it was not. In Indiana, 48 percent said that it was important and 49 percent said that it was not, while in North Carolina, 48 percent said the Wright situation was important in their vote and 50 percent said that it was not.

What happens next?

The Obama camp will point to his big North Carolina win and the rocky patch he has endured the past few weeks and suggest it shows he can handle anything. That spin is already going out.

Expect to the Clinton side to discount North Carolina without flatly coming out and saying Obama won in a state with a large black vote. Expect to hear the words “demographics” and fill in the vague word yourself.

Also, expect the Clinton campaign to signal ASAP that it intends to play hardball since Clinton did not get a double win tonight.

Is this the first salvo? Via The Page:

Clinton delegate honcho [Harold Ickes] tells The Page that his camp believes 2,209 — not 2,025 — is the magic number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination because they’re counting Michigan and Florida.

“I know the Obama people like to use the smaller amount. We don’t even like the implication of it, much less the amount. It implies he doesn’t recognize Florida and Michigan. We don’t see how he can do that politically…So our target is 2,209 and we think Hillary is in a good position to get there.”

This is called changing the goal posts. AND:

Also repeats his calling card to supers: “We don’t know enough about Senator Obama yet. We don’t need an October Surprise. And (the chance of) an October Surprise with Hillary is remote.”

So it could boil down to whether Superdelegates will allow the up-until-now conventional wisdom on the delegate count to be changed and to tilt to a candidate because the other side suggests there could be an October surprise.

FOOTNOTE: The total picture will be far more clear once the votes are completely tallied.

ABC News says that based on exit polling it is calling the North Carolina primary for Senator Barack Obama — amid increasing signs that the Democratic party may be gravely split so many Democrats will stay home in November whether Obama gets the Presidential nomination or his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton.

Indiana, ABC News reports, is too close to call. But the conventional wisdom has been that if there was a “split” tonight, Obama would get North Carolina and Clinton would win Indiana. ABC News:

As expected, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has solidly won the North Carolina primary, ABC News projects, while he and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, remain locked in a tight race in Indiana.

Nearly unanimous support among African-Americans who accounted for a third of voters in North Carolina lifted Obama to easy victory, according to preliminary exit poll results.

About 91 percent of African Americans supported Obama in preliminary exit poll results. Obama also benefited from a surge of new voters; 18 percent in North Carolina said it was their first time voting in a primary, and they favored him by a vast 68-26 percent.

Meanwhile, the race is too close to call in Indiana. The Hoosier State is seen as Clinton’s best chance for victory, with demographics similar to Ohio and Pennsylvania — states she has won in the past — but Obama remains competitive in Indiana, a state that borders his homestate of Illinois.

But the larger issue for the Democrats as the rest of the results come will be: is the Democratic party now on the way to being badly broken? The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder, looking at some exit polls writes:

Forget the horse race numbers for a moment: if the surveys are accurate, the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels. Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee — that’s (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that.

In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they’d be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee — I believe that’s the highest number recorded for that question, too.

The percentage of Clinton voters who say they’d choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40% in Indiana. Put it another way: in North Carolina, less than HALF of folks who voted today for Hillary Clinton are ready to say today that they’d definitely vote for Obama in a general election.

And if the evening shapes up the way the conventional wisdom has suggested it could — Obama winning North Carolina, Clinton winning Indiana — this race will most assuredly go on for a while. Each camp will try and discount their loss in the state they lose. But a lot of what goes on will be aimed at Superdelegates, who will be under more pressure than ever to change sides.

If Clinton or Obama would win both states, the dynamics of the battle for the nomination could change. But if the ABC projection holds and Clinton wins Indiana the increasingly — and perhaps mortally — divisive battle for the Democratic nomination will continue as it did a week ago.

Conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh has urged his Republican listeners to vote for Senator Hillary Clinton in today’s Indiana primary, pointing to what he said is a double standard when it comes to cross-over voters, the Boston Globe reports — and another newspaper reports signs of “hardcore” Republicans voting Democratic.

Indiana’s primary is open to Republicans and independents, as well as Democrats. Limbaugh is urging Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton to extend the Democratic nomination fight and, he hopes, further damage the eventual nominee.

Exit polls suggest that Limbaugh’s soldiers could have made a difference March 4 in Texas, where Clinton pulled out a narrow win in the primary, though Obama won the simultaneous caucuses.

Limbaugh told listeners on Monday that Democratic Party officials in Indiana are trying to intimidate Republican voters with monitors at the polls. So he issued these orders: “Flood these precincts. Vote for Mrs. Clinton as an act of defiance against these police-state tactics as a form of protest.”
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Everything published in and by The Weekly Standard about the Democratic presidential race seems to contain an ulterior motive or two — and that goes for Krazy Kristol and his NYT columns, too — but sometimes, those times being rare, it manages to hit on the truth whether it intended to or not.

Case in point: Noemie Emery’s “An Exceedingly Strange New Respect — Hillary Clinton makes friends in some surprising precincts,” published in the May 12 issue and available online (h/t: Chris Orr).

I have not been alone in pointing out that over the course of the race — but especially since she decided to throw “the kitchen sink” at Obama, which is to say, since the seeming inevitability of her nomination was destroyed) — Hillary has morphed into a Republican. As I put it last month, she has been “presenting herself as the red-blooded Heartland American running against a supposedly out-of-touch coastal elitist. She’s been talking up guns and god, swilling beer and knocking back shots, and pandering to the very people she advised her husband to screw.” A high-profile endorsement from the propagandistic rag of one of the key figures of the vast right-wing conspiracy, Dick Scaife, only proves the point. (Even more so because the Clinton campaign welcomed and made much of the endorsement.)
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While at WORLDMEETS.US, we have seen a good deal of support for John McCain in the Portuguese-speaking countries ofBrazil and Portugal, chiefly due to McCain’s promise to include Brazil in the G8 and his relatively liberal trade policies, this op-ed from Portugal’s Jornal de Negicios is decidedly concerned about what might happen under a McCain presidency.

After examining some of the specifics of McCain’s foreign policy plans, including his plans to create a “League of Democracies,” “expand NATO to include all democratic states,” exclude Russia from the G-8 and include Brazil and India, João Carlos Barradas writes for Jornal de Negocios:

“McCain’s plans are frightening in their incoherence, total lack of realism and underestimation of economic and financial constraints. … Even before Beijing or Moscow put the heat on the eventual Republican president, the apprehension of allies in Berlin, Tokyo and Riyadh would be such that either McCain will have to change course or he will condemn the United States to a proactive interventionism capable of bringing even greater misfortune.

Barradas concludes:

“It is a worrying state of the mind that animates McCain in his desire to reform the world.”

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One day away from the pivotal North Carolina and Indiana Democratic presidential primaries, the polls again aren’t quite in agreement — suggesting that, unless there is some big surprise the race, Wednesday morning could well be exactly where it is now.

If there is a trend in this latest batch of of national and primary state polls, it is this: the race is TIGHTENING.

Zogby still shows Obama ahead in North Carolina and Clinton ahead in Indiana:

The Democratic Party presidential contests in Indiana and North Carolina remained remarkably stable on Sunday, with Illinois’ Barack Obama holding an 8-point lead in North Carolina and a statistically insignificant two-point lead in Indiana, the latest Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

The survey of likely Democratic Party primary voters shows that in North Carolina, Obama leads with 48% support, compared to 40% for Clinton and 13% either undecided or preferring someone else. In Indiana, Obama is nursing a tiny lead of two points, winning 44% support, compared to 42% for Clinton and 15% unsure or wanting someone else.

Both candidates stumped for votes in Indiana Sunday, as the state’s voters prepare to cast ballots in Tuesday’s elections. Actually, early voting has been underway in both states for awhile (longer in North Carolina than in Indiana), and this latest Zogby polling shows one-quarter of North Carolina voters—26%—have already voted, and 13% in Indiana have already cast ballots.

While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clinton appears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yet undecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they were leaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge. It also remains unclear what impact, if any, the new Indiana requirement that voters show identification before casting ballots will have on the contest.

Clinton has benefited from undecideds breaking her way in the past.
USA Today notes:
With the caveat that even polls released just a day before an election should be viewed with some skepticism because voters can still change their minds and it’s what happens in the voting booth that really matters….
It points to another poll:

Suffolk University says Clinton leads in Indiana, 49%-43%. The poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in the Hoosier State was done Saturday and Sunday, and has a margin of error on each result of +/- 4 percentage points.

The latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll gives Obama a statistically insignificant lead over Clinton:

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has a slim lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in their bids for the Democratic presidential nomination, a Gallup poll indicates.

The 4-percentage-point advantage Obama, D-Ill., has over Clinton, D-N.Y., 49 percent to 45 percent, is statistically insignificant because of the sampling error of 3 points, Gallup pollsters said Monday.

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking is the 11th straight day neither Democratic candidate held a significant lead over the other, the Princeton, N.J., pollster reported.

Clinton has had a better showing than Obama against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the general election, though McCain has the edge over each Democrat, pollsters said.

The Insider Advantage Poll shows the race tightening…which is not good news for Obama. On the other hand, Indiana is not as easy as some think it should have been for Clinton:

An InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Survey conducted for the Southern Political Report shows the Democratic Primary in North Carolina tightening. The results:

Obama: 48%

Clinton: 45%

Undecided: 7%.

……InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.”

Check out this MyDD analysis of how Obama should do in North Carolina.

Rasmussen reports also sees a nail-biter:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now attracts 46% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton earns support from 45%. A week ago, Obama led by eight. Still, Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 73.9 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

Clinton leads Obama among the self-employed, entrepreneurs, and retirees. Obama leads among government employees and those who work for a private sector company. White working class voters remain a challenge for Obama. Among White voters who earn less than $75,000 a year, Clinton leads Obama 59% to 32%. The lower the income level, the bigger her margins. However, among White voters who earn more than $75,000 annually, Obama leads Clinton by eight percentage points.

Polling released last week shows a split decision is expected tomorrow–Clinton leads in Indiana while Obama has the edge North Carolina. Looking ahead a few weeks, Obama has a twelve-point lead in Oregon. New polling data for West Virginia will be released at noon Eastern today and a first look at the Kentucky primary will be released tomorrow.

If Obama wins both primaries tomorrow, look for calls for Clinton to drop out to increase. If he loses both, look for the dynamics of the race to greatly change and for the Clinton campaign to press the issue on all fronts that Obama is not electable. If Obama wins North Carolina and Clinton wins Indiana, look for the race to remain where it is now….on a long march towards the convention with the GOP’s chances of holding onto the White House to increase each week.

Democratic party activists and Democrats in general often say their party has two great candidates, no matter who gets the nomination — unless they’re Barack Obama supporters saying they’d never vote for Hillary Clinton if she gets the nomination or Clinton supporters saying they’d never vote for Obama if he gets the nomination.

When Democrats put aside their anger, they often describe the candidates as to topflight choices. But MSNBC’s First Thoughts looks at Clinton and Obama and proclaims “Enough Baggage To Fill A Plane”:

There’s also plenty baggage going into tomorrow…

Clinton can’t name a single economist to back up her gas-tax plan. While it’s easy to dismiss the idea that economists are heartless folks, isn’t one of the chief criticisms of Bush is that he doesn’t listen to experts? Also, Clinton defended her “obliterate” Iran comment on Sunday, but refused to reuse the word (doesn’t that suggest she DOES regret the choice of words?)

Meanwhile, Obama may have to explain at some point his quid pro quo with the Teamsters; how does one who is promising a new transparency in politics promise something that the general public has to find out about via reporters asking tough questions? And then there’s Wright, Wright, Wright. When Obama can get through a TV interview without the name Rev. Wright coming up, that’s when he’ll know he’s out of the woods. So far, he’s not out of the woods.

And, indeed, both of these candidates have negative aspects that the GOPers will most assuredly exploit come November. Indeed: viewed in this context, the idea of a “dream ticket” of Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama could be seen as a boon to the Democrats but a,lso as a kind of Disneyland for Republicans in terms of targets and rallying their party’s base. (I still predict the “Dream Ticket” is more of an “In Your Dreams” ticket due to seeming irreperable anger between the two camps and how each side demonizes the other).

And McCain?

McCain has a host of vulnerabilities (his positions today versus what they were when he ran against Bush in 2000, his ties to his own divisive religious figures, the frequent corrections he has to make after speeches or comments in terms of accuracy, and — most critically — whether he is truly independent or a McCain administration in terms of staffing and ideas will really be Bush III) that have not been addressed by Democrats who are too busy beating each other up and raising each others’ negatives.

So perhaps First Thought’s analysis should be revised:

Both parties now have likely candidates who are carrying so much much baggage that TSA will have to inspect them.

Yesterday we ran a post about a CBS/New York Times poll that said Democratic Senator Barack Obama has rebounded after denouncing his former pastor — but a new Gallup poll reaches a different conclusion: it concludes Obama has been wounded among independent voters and Democrats.

It also finds that Clinton’s husband former President Bill Clinton is also a highly divisive factor among many voters.

Meanwhile, Obama’s rival for the Democratic nomination Senator Hillary Clinton has now pulled into the lead among both Democrats and independents:

Barack Obama’s national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator’s values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he’s favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton’s uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August.

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

Read the rest of this entry »

A new poll indicates Democratic Senator Barack Obama is rebounding after denouncing his former pastor — and it shows a majority of voters polled approve of how Obama handled the political crisis involving his pastor.

But this does NOT mean Obama isn’t damaged by the controversy.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama appears to be rebounding from sliding poll numbers in the wake the controversy over his former pastor, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll released on Sunday.

Among Democratic primary voters, the Illinois senator now leads opponent Hillary Clinton by 12 points — 50 percent to 38 percent — the poll found. Obama led the New York senator by 8 points in a CBS/New York Times poll released just a few days ago.

The latest poll was taken after Obama’s comments last week repudiating Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who repeated statements that the September 11 attacks were retribution for U.S. foreign policy and that the U.S. government had a hand in spreading AIDS to harm blacks.

The poll found 60 precent of the voters approved of how Obama handled the Wright controversy, versus 23 percent who disapproved. In addition the poll shows both Obama and Clinton could defeate Republican presumptive Presidential nominee Senator John McCain: Obama by 11 percent and Clinton by 12.

Does this mean Obama has escaped political damage on the issue.

Hardly.
The New York Times adds:

But nearly half of the voters surveyed, and a substantial part of the Democrats, said Mr. Obama had acted mainly because he thought it would help him politically, rather than because he had serious disagreements with his former pastor. The broader effect of the controversy on Mr. Obama’s candidacy among Democratic primary voters was less clear in the poll, but enough of them expressed qualms about Mr. Obama’s relationship with Mr. Wright to suggest it could sway a relatively small but potentially important group of voters in the remaining primaries.

The relatively small number of Democrats surveyed limits the conclusions that can be drawn about the poll’s findings regarding sentiment in the party. Moreover, as a national poll, it does not necessarily reflect the thoughts of voters in Indiana and North Carolina.

Questions involving racially charged episodes have historically proved difficult to poll, particularly when it comes to asking white voters about black candidates.

Still, the survey suggested that Mr. Obama, of Illinois, had lost much or all of the once-commanding lead he had held over Mrs. Clinton, of New York, among Democratic voters on the question of which of them would be the strongest candidate against Mr. McCain, of Arizona.

So the poll suggests Obama is rebounding. The questions are: whether he will be rebounding enough, whether evidence of that will be seen on Tuesday in the Indiana and North Carolina primary, and whether the Wright controversy has altered the long-term dynamics of the Presidential nomination battle…and the general election.

The latest Zogby Daily Tracking poll indicates Democratic Senator Barack Obama retains a 9 point lead over Senator Hillary Clinton days away from the Democratic Presidential primary — and the two are tied in Indiana.

Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Clinton has pulled even with Obama nationally among Democrats, although Rasmussen’s upcoming primary poll numbers — showing Obama leading in North Carolina and trailing in Indiana — have not changed.

Zogby reports:

Democrat Barack Obama of Illinois holds a nine point lead in North Carolina, and has now edged ahead of Hillary Clinton of New York by a statistically insignificant two points in Indiana, a pair of new Zogby daily tracking telephone polls show.

In both states, the candidates are essentially tied among moderate voters, while Obama holds leads among mainline liberals and progressives. Clinton holds substantial advantages among conservative voters likely to cast ballots in the Democratic primary election.

After a good day of polling, Obama retains a lead in North Carolina - 48% to 39%, with 13% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won the day by a small margin and now holds 43% support, compared to 41% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.

In several key past races undecideds have tended to break for Hillary Clinton. Watch the undecideds in the final batch of polling.

In Indiana, Zogby has Obama ahead of Clinton 43 to 41 percent — a statistical tie given the margin of error:

Clinton holds a sizable edge among Catholics and a small advantage among Protestant voters. She also leads among older voters, while Obama leads among all Democratic primary voters under age 55. In a key age demographic - those voters age 35 to 54 - Obama enjoys a 10-point lead. This was a group that went for Clinton in the recent Pennsylvania primary, after leaning toward Obama in the week before the election.

Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. He also continues to lead in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by his hometown Chicago media market, and in Indianapolis. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton continues to enjoy a double-digit lead. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.

Meanwhile, Ramussen shows a gain by Clinton nationally — and signs that the close race is indeed good for the Democratic party:

The race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is now tied. Clinton and Obama are each supported by 45% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Last Monday, Obama led by eight. The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

In Tuesday’s Primaries, Clinton has a narrow lead in Indiana while Obama has the lead in North Carolina. Clinton leads Obama by five points. Looking ahead a few weeks, Obama has a twelve-point lead in Oregon. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 73.7 % chance of winning.

All of this suggests that unless Obama or Clinton wins both primaries on Tuesday, on Wednesday morning the race could be exactly where it is today.

And now it moves to media center stage: the trend of Republicans crossing over to vote in Democratic primaries. But the New York Times reports that many GOPers aren’t doing this because they’re “dittoheads” obeying the wishes of mega-partisan talk show host Rush Limbaugh, but disgruntled Republicans who feel their party has left — or is leaving — them:

INDIANAPOLIS - Until now, Shirley Morgan had always been the kind of voter the Republican Party thought it could count on. She comes from a family of staunch Republicans, has a son in the military and has supported Republican presidential candidates ever since she cast her first ballot, for Richard M. Nixon in 1972.

But this year Mrs. Morgan exemplifies a different breed: the Republican crossing over to vote in the Democratic primary. Not only will she mark her ballot for Senator Barack Obama in the May 6 primary here, but she has also been canvassing for him in the heavily Republican suburbs of Hamilton County, just north of Indianapolis — the first time she has ever actively campaigned for a candidate.

“I used to like John McCain, but he’s aligning himself too closely with what Bush did, and that’s just not what I want for this country,” Mrs. Morgan, who is 56, said when asked to explain her rejection of the presumptive Republican nominee.

This should be a warning flag to John McCain. As I’ve predicted many times on this site, there is a large segment of voters that aren’t going to look at political party at all this year — but want to take a big broom and sweep away the people who are in charge who have brought the United States a war seemingly without end (even if X voter originally supported the war), a decimated economy, a sagging dollar, an epidemic of home foreclosures and plummeting local property values, and an economy peppered by massive corporate cutbacks or failures and employment ills.

Seen from this perspective, the decisions of Democratic rivals Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to ignore Democratic progressives’ demand to boycott Fox News, makes political sense: Republican voters are in play in these primaries and they all can’t be dismissed as participating in Limbaugh’s call to basically sabotage the Democratic primaries.

This suggests that indicates that the potency of the Democratic party’s most progressive wing, is now being offset in some primaries by more conservative and centrist voters who are cross-over Republicans who feel their party has failed them. And they’re shopping around.

The Times confirms this:

Since the start of the primary and caucus season in January, Republican voters have been crossing over in increasing numbers to