First, if you’re wondering what I as a Hillary supporter think about Hillary’s decision to continue running after yesterday, the answer is I don’t know what I think of it as a strategy.  Naturally I would like to believe that she could still somehow prevail.  I am not sanguine.  People are speculating that she is now running for the VP slot.  We’ll see. 

But — and this matters more to me — I most definitely admire her for her unswerving commitment to see the process through.  Despite the pissing and moaning in the media, and whatever the outcome, I predict that the day will certainly arrive when people will look back with awe and amazement at  Hillary’s insistence in going the distance against all odds and wish that they had chosen her.  She is indomitable.  I like that in a Democrat and so should other Democrats.  Alas, many of them are so beguiled by the media myths about Hillary that they just can’t see what a force of nature she really is.  

Obama could learn a lot from her and he’d be a better (future) president for it.  Instead, I imagine we’ll be stuck with him in his current incarnation — all rhetoric, all the time.   

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From WORLDMEETS.US, some more evidence from abroad of the perplexing nature of the Democratic primaries. Dieter Degler of Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung writes, ‘Until a few weeks ago, I though myself fairly well-versed in American electoral laws. … So what is my current state of knowledge?: The nominating procedure used by Democrats is as transparent as a combination of American football rules and the theory of relativity. … It’s interesting to note that even Americans don’t know any better.’

By Dieter Degler

Translated By Ulf Behncke

February 14, 2008

Germany - Sueddeutsche Zeitung - Original Article (German)

Until a few weeks ago, I thought myself fairly well-versed in American electoral rules. I knew in a general way how the primaries and caucuses worked, that Democrats and Republicans have vastly different rules for nominating a presidential candidate, and I even knew about the superdelegates.

But since I began taking in the exciting duel between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, I’ve learned something new every day. So what is my current state of knowledge?: The nominating procedure used by Democrats is as transparent as a combination of American football rules and the theory of relativity.

It’s interesting to note that even Americans don’t know any better. Those who surfed through major media election-campaign Web sites after the Potomac-Primaries this week learned something astonishing. Indeed, while almost everyone agrees that Obama is now on the rise and Clinton is on the defensive, we were told this: CNN announced 1253 delegates for Obama and 1211 for Clinton; The New York Times sees Obama ahead of Clinton with 916 to 885; from CBS, the man from Illinois leads with 1251 to 1185; and finally the AP (as well as the commendable site www.realclearpolitics.com) has Obama marginally ahead of the New York Senator, with 1210 delegates to her 1188.

The fact that everyone has arrived at differing results reflects the peculiarities of the process. In many states, or example, the primaries only determine the delegates to be sent to the Party convention, which will be in Denver at the end of August. It will only be then that they cast decisive ballots for a nominee.

READ ON AT WORLDMEETS.US, along with continuing translate foreign press coverage of the U.S. elections.

NOTE: This is a special Potomac Primaries edition of our famous Around The Sphere link-fest: it gives you reaction to weblogs of many different viewpoints on yesterday’s primaries and the political scene. Links and quotes do not necessarily represent the viewpoint of TMV or its co-writers.

REACTION TO THE VICTORIES OF DEMOCRAT BARACK OBAMA AND REPUBLICAN JOHN MCCAIN IN THE VIRGINIA, MARYLAND AND WASHINGTON D.C. PRIMARIES:

– Don Surber:

The people in nearly 40 states have spoken and most Democrats prefer the junior senator from Illinois and more Republicans prefer McCain over the Huckster.

And 7 months out, Obama looks to be a lock in the general election.

The best the Huckster could do was lose by “only” 9 points in Virginia. McCain had majorities in all 3 states. We can talk about conservatives vs. RINOs all we want but the truth is the party does not belong only to those who pretend to speak for Ronald Reagan. A photo op with Nancy might make it clear that his name on some bad legislation aside, McCain is a conservative and has been since before Goldwater.

Obama’s campaign need not worry about superdelegates. They are like the Electoral College and will obey the will of the people of their states. They will side with him before Hillary departs this race. And Florida and Michigan will get full delegations.

–Andrew Sullivan:

She [Hillary Clinton] can’t win this on technicalities - without pitching the Democrats into a civil war. But does she even know how to concede?

–James Fallows:

I was feeling sorry for Hillary Clinton just now, when I saw the expression on her face as she waited to go onstage in El Paso. This process is so grueling. And the rejection, when it comes is so personal, in a way “normal” people never experience. Even a performer as professional as she couldn’t conceal the bone-tired, beaten-over look on her face.

But now, fifteen-plus minutes into a dreary recitation of policy-points that will do nothing to satisfy those who want her to say what her campaign is for, I am feeling less sorry. She has not had the grace to mention Barack Obama’s name, nor his existence or success…. This is not classy and does not help.

–Ed Morrissey:

Huckabee hasn’t won more than 45% in any state, and he didn’t get to 45% in Virginia last night, either. Virginia’s winner-take-all primary was his last hope of affecting McCain’s trajectory in any meaningful way, and he lost by nine — as I had predicted earlier in the day.

McCain has already started shifting his focus to the general election. He offered nothing but kindness to Huckabee, but began challenging Barack Obama. Expect to hear McCain repeatedly dismiss Obama’s platitudes on “hope” and get him into a debate on specific policies. Obama will lose that fight, but if he doesn’t engage McCain, he’ll look like an empty suit. McCain has a lot more time to focus on Obama than the reverse, and he can do some damage to Obama’s momentum among independents while Obama tries to finish off Hillary Clinton.

--Taylor Marsh:

Obama’s got everything going for him right now, including momentum. There’s only one thing he doesn’t have and that’s more scrutiny. Yet…Superdelegates will now come into play, but there’s also Michigan and Florida. Somebody in charge better get a firm grip, because these forces could collide….Tough going ahead for Clinton, but also for Obama as well, only for different reasons. The gloves will come off, if only subtly and more pointedly. Clinton is left with no other choice. As for Obama, he’s now going to have to tread on territory where he’s weakest. Defining himself. Better to do it now before the Republicans do it for him.

–The Liberty Papers:

McCain now stands just under 350 delegates short of clinching the nomination, and he’ll get it by March 4th….Not only did Barack Obama sweep the Potomac Primary, he did so decisively and, in Virginia, beat Clinton in almost every demographic category. That would seem to bode well for states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. More importantly, he’s ahead in the delegate count and, as Howard Fineman argued last night on MSNBC, there’s almost no way that Hillary can win based on the pledged delegates alone

Questions For The Future

As we head into the third act of this campaign, this seems to be what people will be talking about

1. How will the DNC handle the fact that Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates?
2. Will the Democratic superdelegates go against the popular vote?
3. Who’s in the running for McCain’s Veep?
4. Will there be a big third-party run?

Plenty to talk about, I would think.

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The Potomac (or Chesapeake) Primary — which Creature live-blogged (with some remarks from me) — turned out to be yet another sweep for Obama. Let’s go straight to our table (updated after each contest):

– Louisiana (2/9): CHECK (57-36 — 21 points)
– Nebraska (2/9): CHECK (68-32 — 36 points)
– Washington (2/9): CHECK (68-31 — 37 points)
– Virgin Islands (2/9): CHECK (90-8 — 82 points)
– Maine (2/10): CHECK (59-40 — 19 points)
– Maryland (2/12): CHECK (60-37 — 23 points)
– Virginia (2/12): CHECK (64-35 — 29 points)
– D.C. (2/12): CHECK (75-24 — 51 points)
– Hawaii (2/19)
– Wisconsin (2/19)

Look at Obama’s margins of victory in Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. The votes weren’t even close, and the networks were able to call them right away. D.C. was a given, of course, as was Maryland, but Virginia by 29 points? Clinton campaigned there, and it’s not really a Clinton-unfriendly state. Indeed, some commentators expected a much closer vote, even a possible Clinton victory.

Of course, the state was trending decidedly to Obama, and Obama’s win was not exactly unexpected, but think back a few weeks. It wasn’t so long ago that a Clinton win in Virginia was expected, or at least that the vote would be close. And go back to October of last year, when a WaPo poll put Clinton up by 24 points over Obama, 49 to 25. The most recent polls had Obama up by about 20 points. And yet he won by 29 points — another exceptional performance.
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NBC has projected that Arizona Senator John McCain will be the winner of the Virginia and Maryland primaries — and has just projected he will win in Washington D.C. as well, virtually assuring what was already assured: that he will be his party’s 2008 Presidential nominee.

But McCain got good news — and bad news.

The good news is that exit polls shows that a large portion of Republicans — a chunk of conservative voters who don’t go along with conservative talk show hosts and that increasingly vanishing species called “moderate Republicans” — are willing to accept him. The bad news is that a hard-core group of conservatives, most typified by conservative media establishment types such as top radio talk show hosts, continue to reject him.

CNN reports:

Despite strong opposition from many conservative voters in Virginia’s GOP primary Tuesday, three-quarters of Republican voters surveyed said they would be satisfied with John McCain as the party’s standard-bearer in November.

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Several news organizations report that Democratic Senator Barack Obama is projected to win the Virginia primary handily in a victory that indicates growing widespread support — and that Republican Senator John McCain is still getting a stern political spanking from hard-line conservative voters in a GOP primary race that remains too close to all.

MSNBC reports:

Sen. Barack Obama was projected to add to his string of recent victories with a substantial triumph over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Virginia’s Democratic presidential primary, NBC News reported Tuesday.

In the Republican primary, NBC said the race between Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was too close to call.

Voters in Maryland and the District of Columbia also were going to the polls Tuesday.

An Obama triumph would make it six straight over Clinton, the former first lady, who is now struggling to keep up in a race she once commanded. With 168 delegates at stake on Tuesday, Obama hoped to build on the lead that he has gained on Clinton in the past week in NBC News’ delegate count.

Interviews with voters leaving the polls in Virginia showed Obama drawing strong support across race and gender lines, indicating that he was eating into Clinton’s voter base.

And the details do show an expansion of his support:

Obama, who is hoping to become the first black president, won the votes of nine in 10 black voters in Virginia, where they were about a third of the electorate. That offset Clinton’s support among white women, six in 10 of whom voted for her.

But overall, Obama won among both men and women, even winning among white men.

Obama won the votes of eight in 10 Virginia Democrats under age 30. He did better than Clinton in nearly every age group, although Clinton had stronger support among older voters. The two candidates were about even among senior citizens. Obama won the votes of six in 10 white voters under age 50, while Clinton won six in 10 white voters over age 50

.
There were also a lot of new voters:

More than a third of voters in the Virginia Democratic primary said they had not voted in a primary before, as did almost one in five voters in the Maryland Democratic primary, according to the exit interviews.

Meanwhile, even though he has the nomination reportedly locked up, McCain continues to face gathering storm clouds to his right — and a loss of some independent voter support:

McCain lost caucuses in Kansas and a primary in Louisiana on Saturday to Huckabee, his last remaining major rival. He won caucuses in Washington state.

But exit interviews in Virginia showed the Huckabee was getting strong support from conservatives, a pivotal group within the GOP. Nearly seven in 10 voters in the Republican primary called themselves conservatives, and Huckabee was gaining half their votes in a strong challenge to McCain.

In a surprising showing of weakness for the Arizona senator, independents — a group McCain has dominated — were about evenly divided between him and Huckabee. People calling themselves loyal Republicans, who have previously given McCain a slight edge, were also split down the middle.

The AP reports:

The Associated Press projected that Sen. Barack Obama would extended his electoral winning streak by capturing the Democratic presidential primary in Virginia today.

The victory makes Obama the clear front-runner in delegates, passing New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the onetime favorite. She has set her sights on March 4, with its key primaries in large states.

Voters in substantial numbers were turning out today for primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. Obama has momentum after winning five Democratic contests over the weekend.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain could win enough delegates to mathematically eliminate his opponents. The polls in Virginia closed at 4 p.m. PST. The others will close an hour later.

In Virginia, 60 delegates are at stake in the Republican race; for Democrats, 83 are stake, making it biggest prize of the day on the Democratic side.

The Democratic Party has proportional representation, so Clinton will win a share of the delegates. The Democrats’ candidate for the general election probably will be determined after the primaries are completed and the super-delegates — party officeholders and leaders — make their decision.

The bottom line:

(1) Obama has — for tonight at least — the beginning of Big Mo, which is fickle and could desert him when he hits the Clinton firewalls in Texas and Ohio next month.

(2) McCain continues to be shunned by many on the GOP’s right, spurred on by conservative talk show hosts who believe anyone is seen as moderate on any issues, reaches across the aisle on some votes, or gets independent support is a “liberal.” Monitoring these shows indicates these hosts seemingly would like to see him go down to defeat, unless he totally goes along with their positions. But if he shifts to placate them, he’ll lose him the kind of independent support he will need to win a general election.