The independent Russian media is certainly not dead. That is the only conclusion one can draw of this editorial comparison of the leadership styles of President-elect Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, from the Russian newspaper, Gazeta.
The Gazeta editorial not only praises the stake that average Americans have in the political life of the U.S., it frontally attacks recent electoral reforms in Russia that are designed to have the completely opposite effect in their country.
Pointing out that the two young leaders gave major speeches on the same day - Obama his electoral victory speech and Medvedev his first ’state of the union’ address, The Gazeta editorial says in part:
“Except that Obama addressed fifty million supporters who voted for him, while Medvedev spoke to a thousand legislators, governors, and bureaucrats.”
“When Obama repeated time and again, ‘we,’ ‘us,’ ‘our climb,’ ‘our goals,’ regardless of how sincere these words were, his listeners believed them: “we” - this is the people, the citizens of the United States. It is the citizens, the regular people that the new leader appeals to. They’re the ones who now have “the chance to make change.” And the words that “it can’t happen without you” seemed quite obvious to them.
“But Dmitriy Medvedev couldn’t have said in the Kremlin ‘It will not happen without you,’ even to his select audience. Because after all, even this narrow circle would have been too wide for such comments. Decisions here are made by a far smaller number of people. … The individual opinion of an ordinary person (unlike his abstract “rights and freedoms”) is definitely not about to be taken into account by those at the ‘top.’”
A truly extraordinary editorial from what many Westerners consider a completely tamed Russian press.
Every day since Nov. 4, the scope of Democrat Barack Obama’s victory has grown more impressive.
His electoral vote total of 364 is the highest for any presidential winner since Bill Clinton’s reelection in 1996.
His 53 percent share of the total popular vote is the largest since George H.W. Bush won a comparable proportion in 1988.
And Obama’s popular vote margin of 8 and a quarter million votes (and counting) is the widest since Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection victory over Walter Mondale in 1984.
It is hard to imagine that barely 20 years ago, it was fashionable to talk of a Republican ‘lock’–a GOP dominance of the electoral map so strong that it appeared to guarantee the party possession of the White House for years to come.
But, as is often said: That was then and this is now. Then, the Republicans had the three “S’s” on their side–the South, the suburbs and small-town America. Now, many of the suburbs have defected to the Democrats, the South is no longer an exclusively GOP preserve, and small-town America does not have the votes to keep the Republicans consistently competitive in national politics.
Over the past few days I have been watching all of the coverage of President Elect Obama’s victory over Senator McCain. I would like to make it clear from the beginning that I congratulate him on a solid victory. While we can debate over how much was pro-Obama and how much was anti-Bush, the fact remains that it was a clear win.
However, as a student of politics and history, I have to take exception with those who are terming it a landslide. I realize that, after a couple of close races, this one seemed big by comparison but, if you look at history, it is not a victory of landslide proportions.
Just to set the standard, a landslide has several clear requirements. The first would be a popular vote margin of at least double digits, closing in or passing 20 points. Examples of this kind of victory would be 1920, 1932, 1936, 1964, 1972 or 1984. In each of these elections the winning candidate got at least 57% of the vote and in 3 of those races they broke over 60% of the ballots.
These numbers gave them large double digit margins over their opponents, and in the case of 1920, 1936 or 1964 the margin was more than 20%. That is a landslide in terms of popular vote. According to the most current figures Obama won around 53% of the vote to 47% for McCain. A solid win but 6 points is far from 15 or 20.
Similarly the Electoral College also requires a somewhat larger margin that Obama will get. Right now it looks like he will get 364-174 victory over McCain. Again that is a solid win but if you look at more modern landslides like 1964, 1972 or 1984 the winner got at least 450 and in the latter two cases over 500 electoral votes. While Obama gets a roughly 2-1 win over McCain, the landslide victors were 10 or 20 to 1 margins.
In addition if you look at some of the states that Obama won the margins were very close. In 4 or 5 states (depending on how the final numbers come out) he won 51-49 which means a very small shift would take his 360-370 EV’s down to the 280-290 range, much like the Bush 2004 win.
This year more accurately reflects the 1988 win by Bush 41 or the 1992 and 1996 wins by Clinton. Solid wins, clear victories in the Electoral College and comfortable wins in the popular vote. But they were not landslides and neither is this year.
It is for this reason I have coined the term ‘landslip’ to define this kind of victory. I know that from a strict sense the terms landslip and landslide are similar but it sounds a little better to my ear. I don’t expect the media to adopt it or anything (though if you hear it on CNN or Fox News let me know) but I think it is a more accurate term.
And once again a big congratulations to our new President. I hope he succeeds beyond all of our wildest dreams, for his success is our success and that is how we should all look at our President, regardless of party.
Yes, North Carolina just 12 years ago voted to re-elect Jesse Helms to the US Senate for a fifth term. On Tuesday, the same state added its 15 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s column.
That’s change.
North Carolina, like its neighbor to the north, is a state in transition. North Carolina has long held a reputation as one of the most liberal states in the South. I’ve always used the Jesse Helms presence as counter-evidence. Indeed, Tennessee produced far more moderate - even liberal - politicians in the post-World War Two era than North Carolina. Tennessee had Frank Clement, Estes Kefauver and both Al Gores (Sr. and Jr.). The prominent Republicans in Tennessee were moderate by Southern standards - Howard Baker, Lamar Alexander, Jimmy Quillen, Jimmy Duncan. North Carolina had Jesse.
But today things have reversed themselves. As I drive down the hill toward my street in Maryville I can see Gregory Bald in the distance. At 4949 feet, Gregory Bald is one of highest natural bald-tops in the Appalachian Mountains and a truly beautiful spot in Great Smoky Mountain National Park. It’s also on the state line between Tennessee and North Carolina. As Sarah Palin would say, I can see North Carolina from my house (maybe I can be governor).
But today, sitting in blood red East Tennessee - part of the “McCain belt” of Upper South states that actually got redder this year - it’s amazing to see a blue state in the distance. And a blue state that I did my little part to canvass. Indeed, the county on the other side of the mountain - Swain County - voted for McCain over Obama by a mere 96 votes; my county went 69% for McCain. It really is different over there.
But it’s also very different over in North Carolina today than just a few years ago. The state has been transformed over the last few decades by new migrants coming from elsewhere in the country. As the state GOP fell further into the hands of Christian Right militants, moderate suburbanites in Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh-Durham turned to the Democratic Party. Newer migrants along the Atlantic coast and in the mountains of Buncombe and Jackson Counties similarly turned the state blue. And then, of course, there was the increased black turnout across the state.
Will the formula last? Will North Carolina turn permanently to the Democratic Party, as Virginia seems to have done? My guess is that the trend is real, though a bit early. Democrats won up and down the ticket in North Carolina, and the gains were in the same sorts of suburbs that have gone blue in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Indeed, even the Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Louisville and Nashville suburbs have shown movement to the Democratic Party for the first time. The old Sun Belt home of conservative Republicanism is facing the same fate as DuPage County, IL, Oakland County, MI, Hamilton County, OH, Fairfax County, VA, Montgomery County, PA and Nassau County, NY. More diverse than ever before, socially moderate, young and culturally vibrant, these areas of growth have turned from small-government conservatism to the new Democratic Party. Since this trend began in the 1990s, we’ve seen no evidence of it reversing course. Instead, the suburban move to the Democratic Party has simply expanded into the New South.
What state will fall next? Georgia? Texas? What will the Republican Party do without Sunbelt suburbanites?
November 5th, 2008 By HOLLY IN CINCINNATI, Copy Editor
A Line at a Polling Site (obviously, not mine):
Some of you may have noticed that I did not post yesterday. I got up at 4 AM to serve as Presiding Judge (on 4 hours of training) at a precinct located in a Roman Catholic church in a poor and heavily African-American area of Cincinnati. I did not get home until approximately 10 PM and was so exhausted that I was in bed by 11 PM.
We set up Monday night. I was there at the scheduled time of 6 pm but the church was locked and we waited outside 30+ minutes. The Board of Elections had forgotten to give me some really important stuff and was to deliver it at 6 pm but was 90 minutes late. There were 2 precincts in the location and I was the only poll worker in either precinct who was not an African-American.
Of my 4 assigned poll workers, one did not show up and the other 3 could not stop bickering. I quickly realized that 4 hours of training is NOT enough. Maybe next time I can get a group of friends to volunteer with me. We did not finish setting up until 9 pm.
Yesterday, it was very exciting. I got up at 4 AM because the polls were scheduled to open at 6:30 AM and we had to be there at 6:00 AM. The day before, I had ordered and prepaid for a Starbucks Coffee Traveler (carton of fresh-brewed coffee with accessories) to be ready at 5:30 AM for me to pick up and take to our polling place. Before I left my apartment, I phoned the 24-hour Kroger grocery store where the Starbucks is located to confirm that it was ready. No answer, ringing and recordings. So I went to the Kroger and the worker in Starbucks had no idea what I was talking about. I explained that I had pre-paid and asked them to make the coffee and deliver it to my polling place. 4 hours later, after numerous phone calls, our coffee was finally delivered! Unfortunately, one of my poll workers chose to complain that, although 3 kinds of sweetener came with the coffee, no sugar had been delivered! I suggested that she put a piece of chocolate in her coffee.
Somehow, even without coffee, we completed our set-up and got the polls open on time. There was an enormous turnout, more voters than I had ever seen. My poll workers, who were from the neighborhood and knew each other, continued to bicker all day during our few lulls in traffic. I had to tell them that I was neither a policeman nor a babysitter.
Many voters in our precinct had obviously not voted before or had not voted for many years. We had a bunch of voters who messed up their ballots and had to get new ones, sometimes twice. Some voters needed us to read the ballot to them and mark it for them. There is a machine which does that but it was broken for most of the day, so I had to get both a Republican and a Democratic poll worker, one to read the ballot to the voter and the other to mark it for the voter. Several people very carefully filled in the rectangles for each and every presidential ticket - the eScan machine would kick those ballots out. This type of voting problem was usually a clue that the voter could not read. I am concerned that many of our illiterate voters may be poorly-informed.
About one in 7 voters had some sort of problem with their registration and had to vote provisionally. Most had changed their address without updating voter registration. Many did not know which precinct they were in - we tried to figure that out and and send them to the correct precinct and polling site. One woman told me that we were the 3rd place she’d been sent and she wasn’t leaving until she got to vote. Luckily, she was (finally) in the right place!
Another woman came to vote, said ‘I don’t feel good, I think I might pass out’ and then hit the floor. I called 911. Eventually, after maybe 20 minutes, firemen came and checked on her - fortunately, she was able to get up and go home with a friend.
At times it was so noisy at our polling site that we announced that people needed to be quiet because some voters could not concentrate. There were lots of small children, most of whom were really cute. I had brought 4 bags of candy for my poll workers but we ended up giving lots of candy to the kids (with parental permission). Often candy kept the kids quiet long enough for the parent to fill out the ballot.
I chose not to discuss my ballot with anyone.
With a few exceptions, it was mobbed all day long. I took about 3 bathroom breaks and no lunch break. I had brought a loaf of bread and some peanut butter as well as every kind of tool I thought we might need (scissors, paper towels, Sharpies etc…).
Polls closed at 7:30 pm and, in addition to dealing with the ballots, we needed to tear down everything that we had set up. At 9:30 pm I dropped off the ballot bag at the BOE’s collection point in St. Bernard, at 9:45 pm I dropped off 2 of my 3 poll workers at their homes and at 10 pm I got home. Having barely slept Monday night, I was in bed by 11 pm.
With Obama having an incredibly strong polling day and FiveThirtyEight now projecting his win percentage at 98.1% today, perhaps we shouldn’t be asking if Obama will win tomorrow, but when. Nate Silver, Doug Mataconis at Donklephant, and the Swing State Project have all provided useful guides for hour-by-hour poll closings.
Here’s what you should watch for (all times Eastern, and although there are some very interesting Senate races, I only focused on the McCain-Obama match up):
6:00 PM: Kentucky and Indiana close. The former is obviously going to McCain. But Indiana could be an early bellwether for the night. If McCain wins easily, it may be a very close race, but if Indiana is somehow projected for Obama early on, it’s tough to envision a McCain victory scenario, and we may end up seeing an Obama landslide.
7:00 PM: Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire. The Indiana results probably won’t be reported until after 7, at which time results from other key swing states will be coming in. Virginia may be the most important of the night, as Nate Silver explains: “If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory.”
Florida and Georgia will probably be too close to call until later in the night, however.
Just for the sake of levity, I’d like to post links to some of the 50-odd stories WORLDMEETS.US has posted about the U.S. election from around the world in the past 72 hours:
The nail-biting on this planet over the 2008 U.S. presidential election is quite a spectacle. And the question on almost everyone’s lips is this: Will Americans actually do what all the opinion polls say they will - elect a Black man to the U.S. presidency? Clearly - the ‘Bradley Effect’ has once and for all become a part of global electoral lore.
Three days from the vote, Barack Obama is the favorite. The polls, which have never been so numerous, are all in agreement. Analysts in the United States and policy makers around the world expect to see the Black candidate enter the White House on January 20th. A revolution!
But beware! Nothing is done until the Americans have voted. … The bigger question is whether the opinion polls are telling the truth. This competition has no prior equivalent. How many Americans who would normally vote Democratic, when they enter the voting booth, will choose McCain because of Obama’s skin color?”
