A Gallup analysis of exit-poll data finds Democratic Senator Barack Obama’s support among white voters if he runs against GOP Senator John McCain is about the same as Senator John Kerry’s was in the 2004 Presidential election:
Barack Obama’s current level of support among white voters in a head-to-head matchup against John McCain is no worse than John Kerry’s margin of support among whites against George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election.
Much of the talk following Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries has focused on just how electable Obama — now the highly probable nominee — will be in the general election. The Clinton campaign has argued that Obama’s weaknesses among white voters and blue-collar voters will hurt him against McCain in the fall.
But it appears that the way Obama stacks up against McCain at this point is similar to the way in which Kerry performed against Bush in 2004 within several key racial, educational, religious, and gender subgroups. That is, the basic underlying structure of the general-election campaign this year does not appear to be markedly different from that of the 2004 election. This conclusion is based on an analysis of exit-poll data from 2004 compared to the Obama-McCain matchup in 4,000 Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted during the first five days of May.
The final Zogby daily tracking poll gives Democratic Senator Barack Obama a wider lead in his battle with Senator Hillary Clinton in the North Carolina Democratic Presidential primary — but the primary in Indiana remains too close to call:
On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows.
The pair of surveys of the Democratic presidential contests shows Obama with a significant 14-point lead in North Carolina, winning 51% support to Hillary Clinton’s 37%. Another 12% said they were either favoring someone else or were as yet undecided. In Indiana, the race is clear as mud, as Obama holds a statistically insignificant lead of two points, winning 45% support to Clinton’s 43% support, with 12% either undecided or favoring someone else. Read the rest of this entry »
A new Ipsos poll gives Senator Hillary Clinton a substantial national lead as the favorite among Democrats over her rival for the Democratic Presidential nomination Senator Barack Obama:
The latest Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend shows that on the eve of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has taken over the lead in popular support from Democrats nationally. Among Democratic supporters across the country, 47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.
These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question. Democratic support for Clinton remains highest from women (51%), who have a high-school education or less (58%), and very low income respondents (57% among those with an annual household income of $25,000 or less).
Nowhere do you experience the agony and ecstasy of following political polling results more than in the scientific tea-leaf readings now coming out of North Carolina. Each makes sense when you read them.
On the eve of the North Carolina Democratic Primary, with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes.
According to SurveyUSA’s 8th and final tracking poll, conducted exclusively for ABC11 Eyewitness News, on the final day of the fiercely fought campaign, Senator Barack Obama holds on with 50% of the vote to Senator Hillary Clinton’s 45% of those polled.
There is no foreseeable outcome in North Carolina, regardless of which candidate wins the popular vote, where one candidate collects significantly more convention delegates than the other.
In Pennsylvania and Indiana, the previous times that we conducted this exercise, the results from our regression model were closely in line with the composite polling averages in those states. In North Carolina, however, while most polls show a tightening, single-digit race, our model steadfastly forecasts a solid, double-digit victory for Barack Obama.
If you’ll recall, the way that I produce these projections is to rely purely on demographic data from previous primaries. So the unstated assumption is this: if voters in North Carolina behave like demographically-aligned voters in other states, this is about what we should expect. On the other hand, if something has changed in the way that some groups of voters view the candidates — our model may be inaccurate.
There does appear to me to be some evidence that Hillary Clinton is overperforming the position she has generally held throughout most of the recent primaries. But there is also some strong evidence that the current polling in North Carolina may be understating Barack Obama’s support in that state.
Read it in its entirety since it’s a detailed analysis.
Choose the poll that fits your political bias and believe it, and pooh-pooh the other one.
We ran this post earlier giving you a wide sampling of pollling on a day before the important Indiana and North Carolina Democratic Presidential primaries. Now a new Public Policy Polling poll of North Carolina shows Obama has held onto a double digit lead against his rival Senator Hillary Clinton.
Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama still leads by ten points in North Carolina, according to Public Policy Polling’s final survey of the state.
He has a 53-43 lead, the smallest he has shown in a PPP poll over the last six weeks but also larger than many other opinion polls that have been released in the last seven days. Obama will win based largely on the black vote, as the poll shows an electorate polarized along racial lines. Obama leads 84-11 with black voters but trails Hillary Clinton 60-34 with white voters.
“It appears Barack Obama will weather the storm in North Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Hillary Clinton has certainly been able to make in roads as she has contested the state hard, but North Carolina’s demographics make thi almost an impossible state to win for her.”
Our final North Carolina poll will be released within the next few hours. A big decision for pollsters on this one is how to weight for race. 28% of the Democratic primary electorate in 2000 was black, and in 2004 it was 32%. But over 40% of early voters were.
Obviously how you choose to nail down that figure can have a pretty significant effect on your Presidential numbers when the electorate is so polarized along racial lines.
We settled on 35%. We asked folks who were polled if they had voted early. Taking all of the respondents in our poll, if 40% of those who voted early were black then 35% of the population as a whole was.
I don’t know if that’s the best or most perfect way to do it but it is at least a rational decision based on the data we have.
The fact that nearly 400,000 early votes have been cast so far is remarkable given past primary turnout in North Carolina. The state held a caucus in 2004 (due to a redistricting battle that delayed the primary), but 544,922 Democrats voted in the largely uncontested primary in May 2000, and 691,875 voted in May 1992 (statistics I gathered for a column noting that pollster PPP has been sampling from a total universe of 874,222). The record was 961,000 in 1984, according to the Charlotte Observer, which cites “long time N.C. political observers” guessing that “as many as 1.5 million” may vote this year. So this early vote will be a significant portion of the total votes cast, but as McDonald points out, no one knows exactly how big.
It is also worth pointing out that the Obama campaign has made early voting drives a focus of their field organizing, so it is certainly possible that the ranks of early voters are disproportionately swollen with Obama voters. Last week’s poll from SurveyUSA showed Obama leading by a 18 points (57% to 39%) among early voters, but that subgroup was just 2% of their total sample. Thus, one key result to watch in the final poll releases today — among those far sighted enough to track and report it — will be the size and preference of the early voters.
Already you can see on weblogs different spins on what the early voting means (depending on what candidate the blog supports).
One day away from the pivotal North Carolina and Indiana Democratic presidential primaries, the polls again aren’t quite in agreement — suggesting that, unless there is some big surprise the race, Wednesday morning could well be exactly where it is now.
If there is a trend in this latest batch of of national and primary state polls, it is this: the race is TIGHTENING.
Zogby still shows Obama ahead in North Carolina and Clinton ahead in Indiana:
The Democratic Party presidential contests in Indiana and North Carolina remained remarkably stable on Sunday, with Illinois’ Barack Obama holding an 8-point lead in North Carolina and a statistically insignificant two-point lead in Indiana, the latest Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.
The survey of likely Democratic Party primary voters shows that in North Carolina, Obama leads with 48% support, compared to 40% for Clinton and 13% either undecided or preferring someone else. In Indiana, Obama is nursing a tiny lead of two points, winning 44% support, compared to 42% for Clinton and 15% unsure or wanting someone else.
Both candidates stumped for votes in Indiana Sunday, as the state’s voters prepare to cast ballots in Tuesday’s elections. Actually, early voting has been underway in both states for awhile (longer in North Carolina than in Indiana), and this latest Zogby polling shows one-quarter of North Carolina voters—26%—have already voted, and 13% in Indiana have already cast ballots.
While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clinton appears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yet undecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they were leaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge. It also remains unclear what impact, if any, the new Indiana requirement that voters show identification before casting ballots will have on the contest.
Clinton has benefited from undecideds breaking her way in the past. USA Today notes:
With the caveat that even polls released just a day before an election should be viewed with some skepticism because voters can still change their minds and it’s what happens in the voting booth that really matters….
It points to another poll:
Suffolk University says Clinton leads in Indiana, 49%-43%. The poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in the Hoosier State was done Saturday and Sunday, and has a margin of error on each result of +/- 4 percentage points.
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has a slim lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in their bids for the Democratic presidential nomination, a Gallup poll indicates.
The 4-percentage-point advantage Obama, D-Ill., has over Clinton, D-N.Y., 49 percent to 45 percent, is statistically insignificant because of the sampling error of 3 points, Gallup pollsters said Monday.
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking is the 11th straight day neither Democratic candidate held a significant lead over the other, the Princeton, N.J., pollster reported.
Clinton has had a better showing than Obama against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the general election, though McCain has the edge over each Democrat, pollsters said.
The Insider Advantage Poll shows the race tightening…which is not good news for Obama. On the other hand, Indiana is not as easy as some think it should have been for Clinton:
An InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Survey conducted for the Southern Political Report shows the Democratic Primary in North Carolina tightening. The results:
Obama: 48%
Clinton: 45%
Undecided: 7%.
……InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.”
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now attracts 46% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton earns support from 45%. A week ago, Obama led by eight. Still, Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 73.9 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Clinton leads Obama among the self-employed, entrepreneurs, and retirees. Obama leads among government employees and those who work for a private sector company. White working class voters remain a challenge for Obama. Among White voters who earn less than $75,000 a year, Clinton leads Obama 59% to 32%. The lower the income level, the bigger her margins. However, among White voters who earn more than $75,000 annually, Obama leads Clinton by eight percentage points.
Polling released last week shows a split decision is expected tomorrow–Clinton leads in Indiana while Obama has the edge North Carolina. Looking ahead a few weeks, Obama has a twelve-point lead in Oregon. New polling data for West Virginia will be released at noon Eastern today and a first look at the Kentucky primary will be released tomorrow.
If Obama wins both primaries tomorrow, look for calls for Clinton to drop out to increase. If he loses both, look for the dynamics of the race to greatly change and for the Clinton campaign to press the issue on all fronts that Obama is not electable. If Obama wins North Carolina and Clinton wins Indiana, look for the race to remain where it is now….on a long march towards the convention with the GOP’s chances of holding onto the White House to increase each week.
Yesterday we ran a post about a CBS/New York Times poll that said Democratic Senator Barack Obama has rebounded after denouncing his former pastor — but a new Gallup poll reaches a different conclusion: it concludes Obama has been wounded among independent voters and Democrats.
It also finds that Clinton’s husband former President Bill Clinton is also a highly divisive factor among many voters.
Meanwhile, Obama’s rival for the Democratic nomination Senator Hillary Clinton has now pulled into the lead among both Democrats and independents:
Barack Obama’s national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator’s values, credibility and electability.
The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he’s favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton’s uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August.
In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.
A new poll indicates Democratic Senator Barack Obama is rebounding after denouncing his former pastor — and it shows a majority of voters polled approve of how Obama handled the political crisis involving his pastor.
But this does NOT mean Obama isn’t damaged by the controversy.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama appears to be rebounding from sliding poll numbers in the wake the controversy over his former pastor, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll released on Sunday.
Among Democratic primary voters, the Illinois senator now leads opponent Hillary Clinton by 12 points — 50 percent to 38 percent — the poll found. Obama led the New York senator by 8 points in a CBS/New York Times poll released just a few days ago.
The latest poll was taken after Obama’s comments last week repudiating Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who repeated statements that the September 11 attacks were retribution for U.S. foreign policy and that the U.S. government had a hand in spreading AIDS to harm blacks.
The poll found 60 precent of the voters approved of how Obama handled the Wright controversy, versus 23 percent who disapproved. In addition the poll shows both Obama and Clinton could defeate Republican presumptive Presidential nominee Senator John McCain: Obama by 11 percent and Clinton by 12.
Does this mean Obama has escaped political damage on the issue.
Hardly. The New York Times adds:
But nearly half of the voters surveyed, and a substantial part of the Democrats, said Mr. Obama had acted mainly because he thought it would help him politically, rather than because he had serious disagreements with his former pastor. The broader effect of the controversy on Mr. Obama’s candidacy among Democratic primary voters was less clear in the poll, but enough of them expressed qualms about Mr. Obama’s relationship with Mr. Wright to suggest it could sway a relatively small but potentially important group of voters in the remaining primaries.
The relatively small number of Democrats surveyed limits the conclusions that can be drawn about the poll’s findings regarding sentiment in the party. Moreover, as a national poll, it does not necessarily reflect the thoughts of voters in Indiana and North Carolina.
Questions involving racially charged episodes have historically proved difficult to poll, particularly when it comes to asking white voters about black candidates.
Still, the survey suggested that Mr. Obama, of Illinois, had lost much or all of the once-commanding lead he had held over Mrs. Clinton, of New York, among Democratic voters on the question of which of them would be the strongest candidate against Mr. McCain, of Arizona.
So the poll suggests Obama is rebounding. The questions are: whether he will be rebounding enough, whether evidence of that will be seen on Tuesday in the Indiana and North Carolina primary, and whether the Wright controversy has altered the long-term dynamics of the Presidential nomination battle…and the general election.
The latest Zogby Daily Tracking poll indicates Democratic Senator Barack Obama retains a 9 point lead over Senator Hillary Clinton days away from the Democratic Presidential primary — and the two are tied in Indiana.
Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Clinton has pulled even with Obama nationally among Democrats, although Rasmussen’s upcoming primary poll numbers — showing Obama leading in North Carolina and trailing in Indiana — have not changed.
Zogby reports:
Democrat Barack Obama of Illinois holds a nine point lead in North Carolina, and has now edged ahead of Hillary Clinton of New York by a statistically insignificant two points in Indiana, a pair of new Zogby daily tracking telephone polls show.
In both states, the candidates are essentially tied among moderate voters, while Obama holds leads among mainline liberals and progressives. Clinton holds substantial advantages among conservative voters likely to cast ballots in the Democratic primary election.
After a good day of polling, Obama retains a lead in North Carolina - 48% to 39%, with 13% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won the day by a small margin and now holds 43% support, compared to 41% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.
In several key past races undecideds have tended to break for Hillary Clinton. Watch the undecideds in the final batch of polling.
In Indiana, Zogby has Obama ahead of Clinton 43 to 41 percent — a statistical tie given the margin of error:
Clinton holds a sizable edge among Catholics and a small advantage among Protestant voters. She also leads among older voters, while Obama leads among all Democratic primary voters under age 55. In a key age demographic - those voters age 35 to 54 - Obama enjoys a 10-point lead. This was a group that went for Clinton in the recent Pennsylvania primary, after leaning toward Obama in the week before the election.
Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. He also continues to lead in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by his hometown Chicago media market, and in Indianapolis. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton continues to enjoy a double-digit lead. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.
Meanwhile, Ramussen shows a gain by Clinton nationally — and signs that the close race is indeed good for the Democratic party:
The race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is now tied. Clinton and Obama are each supported by 45% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Last Monday, Obama led by eight. The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.
In Tuesday’s Primaries, Clinton has a narrow lead in Indiana while Obama has the lead in North Carolina. Clinton leads Obama by five points. Looking ahead a few weeks, Obama has a twelve-point lead in Oregon. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 73.7 % chance of winning.
All of this suggests that unless Obama or Clinton wins both primaries on Tuesday, on Wednesday morning the race could be exactly where it is today.
Democratic Sentor Barack Obama begins a new week heading into the critical North Carolina and Indiana primaries with some bad news from Zogby polling: his rival for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination Senator Hillary Clinton is now within single digits of him in North Carolina and Obama and Clinton remain deadlocked in Indiana:
Democrat Hillary Clinton made gains in North Carolina yesterday, drawing within single digits of rival Barack Obama, while the two remain deadlocked in Indiana with just days before Tuesday’s primary elections in those states, a pair of new Zogby daily tracking telephone polls show.
Obama leads in North Carolina by a 46% to 37% margin, with 17% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won 43% support, compared to 42% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.
Zogby, who will do the daily tracking poll up until the Tuesday vote, notes that Obama has suffered some erosion:
The latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll provides the most vivid red flag warning yet for Democratic Senator Barack Obama in his battle with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination: presumptive GOP nominee Senator John McCain now enjoys a six point lead over Obama and only a one point lead over Clinton.
This will be a welcome piece of data for the Clinton campaign that has had as its strategy Obama not being electable (and many analysts say to make Obama that way):
John McCain has moved to a six percentage point, 48% to 42%, lead over Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election, while he edges out Hillary Clinton by only one point, 46% to 45%.
The ongoing turmoil in the Democratic race — with neither candidate able to sustain a winning streak in the primaries and animosity seemingly mounting between them — seems to be benefiting McCain and hurting both Democrats. Last week McCain had fallen three points behind Clinton in the preferences of registered voters for the general election, and only tied Obama.
Although both Clinton and Obama have lost ground to McCain over the past week, the current results may be particularly troubling for Obama in trying to combat Clinton’s assertion to superdelegates that she would be the more electable of the two candidates in November.
This is McCain’s largest lead in a tracking poll:
The current six-point margin for McCain over Obama is the largest lead McCain has had over either candidate since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in early March. The gap between Obama and Clinton’s percentage of the vote when both are pitted against McCain is also the largest since the general election tracking began.
The bottom line: the contest is not benefiting the Democratic party, as some have claimed — and Obama has lost a host of support since his former pastor decided to extend his 15 minutes of fame into several long public appearances.
The question: can Obama stabilize his campaign in time for the important upcoming North Carolina and Indiana primaries?
Yesterday we ran a post about polls out of North Carolina hinting at what could be a possible upset — a win by Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential primary there. But now a new poll by Zogby — a pollster that did well in predicting the Pennsylvania vote — puts Obama way ahead in North Carolina and locked in a tie with Clinton in Indiana:
Five days before the important Democratic presidential primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, Barack Obama of Illinois enjoys a substantial lead in one state and remains tied with Hillary Clinton of New York in the other, a new Zogby daily tracking poll shows.
Obama leads by a 50% to 34% margin over Clinton in North Carolina, while the two are tied at 42% support each in Indiana.
The telephone surveys, conducted over two days, began on April 30 and were completed May 1. They comprise the first of Zogby’s daily tracking surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 668 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. In Indiana, 680 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Zogby finds Obama leads in all age groups there except 70 year and older (where it is tied).
And it’s clear that although white voters are split, with a larger number going to Clinton, Clinton has essentially lost the African-American vote:
Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina—47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well—winning 44% support to Clinton’s 37% backing.
Asked if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the comments made them more likely to support Obama.
In Indiana, Zogby finds a tie: 42 percent for Clinton and Obama:
The demographic breakdowns in Indiana mirror what we have seen in earlier voting states, with Obama leading among younger voters and Clinton leading among older voters. A key middle-age demographic—those age 35 to 54—now favors Obama by a 48% to 41% margin in Indiana, but this demo turned out to be a key battleground in Pennsylvania, which has a somewhat similar population make-up.
Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama’s hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women.
After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.
It’s ironic, but now the “Big Mo” influencing state could be North Carolina.
Obama has long been favored to win there by a big margin. If he loses or barely wins it would be widely seen as a sign of major erosion in his support and Clinton would seize on it accordingly. If it wouldn’t quite change the numbers in the Presidential race, it would change perceptions — and perception often equals reality in politics.
A new poll provides PROOF that in the end President George Bush has proven to be a uniter, not a divider — a President who has left his memorable mark on history:
A new poll suggests that George W. Bush is the most unpopular president in modern American history.
This also suggests that a new national sport in coming months will be keeping track of Republican presumptive nominee John McCain putting distance between himself and Mr. Bush:
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Thursday indicates that 71 percent of the American public disapprove of how Bush his handling his job as president.
“No president has ever had a higher disapproval rating in any CNN or Gallup poll; in fact, this is the first time that any president’s disapproval rating has cracked the 70 percent mark,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Sometimes people don’t give politicians enough credit for their achievements. It is only fair to applaud Mr. Bush, since it took a lot of hard work to achieve this status. MORE:
“Bush’s approval rating, which stands at 28 percent in our new poll, remains better than the all-time lows set by Harry Truman and Richard Nixon (22 percent and 24 percent, respectively) but even those two presidents never got a disapproval rating in the 70s,” Holland added. “The previous all-time record in CNN or Gallup polling was set by Truman, 66 percent disapproval in January 1952.”
CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider adds, “He is more unpopular than Richard Nixon was just before he resigned from the presidency in August 1974.” President Nixon’s disapproval rating in August 1974 stood at 67 percent.
The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll continues more bad-news trending for Senator Barack Obama in his epic battle with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton has widened her lead over him and is now ahead by four points:
Hillary Clinton has edged ahead of Barack Obama, 49% to 45%, in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.
The four percentage point Clinton advantage in the April 28-30 polling is not statistically significant, but suggests slight movement in her favor after she and Obama had been tied the previous six days. Obama had held a significant lead over Clinton throughout much of April. The current margin is the biggest in Clinton’s favor since March 17-19 polling.
Obama has had a rough few weeks in the campaign, with his widely publicized remarks about “bitter” voters, Clinton’s decisive win in the crucial Pennsylvania primary, and renewed media attention to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the controversial former pastor of Obama’s church, with Wright speaking out publicly this past week. Obama has also come under criticism from both Clinton and John McCain for opposing a proposal to suspend the federal gasoline tax during the summer months. As a result, Obama has moved from a consistent lead over Clinton to a deficit. Obama has just a few days to reverse the tide going into next Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
Trending is important in polling — and the trending doesn’t look much better when Obama is matched against McCain: Clinton would now be a tougher candidate for McCain to beat:
The latest general election results show Obama now trailing McCain by a statistically significant 47% to 43% margin among registered voters. Clinton and McCain are now tied in the general election at 46%, as McCain’s support in relation to Clinton and Obama has picked up in recent days.
Obama has clearly taken some steps in recent days (his statement to the press, his appearance with his wife on the Today Show) to try and reverse the erosion. But with key primaries coming up soon, is it too little too late?
For months it has been a “given” that Senator Barack Obama was way ahead in North Carolina — in some cases by double-digits in the polls — and that rival Senator Hillary Clinton didn’t have much of a chance to win the state’s Democratic Presidential primary, and create eleventh hour “Big Mo” in their battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. New polls suggest it may now be time to retire that “given.”
What’s going on among the Democrats now clearly is on two levels: the votes and the primaries on one level and the appeal to decision-solidifying Superdelegates on another. The political context is changing rapidly for Obama and not to his advantage.
Obama has a big problem: the latest Rasmussen Poll gives Clinton a two point lead — but indicates a TEN POINT DROP in Obama’s polling since Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright’s press conference.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points.
In Indiana, Clinton leads Obama by five points. In North Carolina Obama leads. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 74.4% chance of winning.
A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina — which hold key primaries on Tuesday — suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.
In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton’s unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama’s, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.
The Clinton campaign’s strategy to raise doubts about Obama’s electability is clearly succeeding, but not only due to the two Clintons’ at-times-Rovian-style negative campaigning. Three other contributing factors are Obama’s political bungles, his former Pastor’s insistence on a controversial high profile that sucks the air out of Obama’s daily media coverage, and Clinton’s increasing enthusiasm as a campaigner (which many analysts are noting). The Globe continues:
In a national NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, Obama’s lead has narrowed to 46 percent to 43 percent, and his unfavorable ratings have also risen. In March, 51 percent of voters viewed him positively and 28 percent saw him negatively, but in the new poll 46 percent view him favorably, but 37 percent negatively.
In a national New York Times/CBS poll, Obama leads 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats, but 51 percent say they believe he will be the eventual nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago. And 48 percent of Democratic primary voters said they believe he would be the strongest candidate against McCain, down from 56 percent a month ago.
And in a Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton runs stronger than Obama in match-ups against McCain in the general election swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain’s 41 percent in Florida, leads 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania.
It’s clear that Obama knows he has a problem.
This morning he went on the Today Show (VIDEO HERE) with his wife Michelle — a husband-wife damage control appearance that was reminiscent of when then-Governor Bill Clinton went on 60 Minutes with Hillary Clinton in 1992 to be grilled by Steve Kroft amid allegations of (pre-Oval office) infidelity.
Last night Michelle Obama went on CNN. And on Sunday Obama will enter the Lion’s Den and be on “Meet The Press” with gotcha! journalist Tim Russert.
But Obama’s immediate concern is likely North Carolina. The vibes coming from polls aren’t good ones. And, if he loses there, the ugly and divisive Democratic party race will likely get uglier and more divisive as Clinton moves in for the political kill and Obama pulls out all stops to stabilize his campaign.
A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%
Prior to his appearance on Fox News Network’s “Hannity & Colmes,” on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.
“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.
“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.”
Even with the pollster’s hedge, the bottom line is that this is awful news for the Obama campaign. Narrowing polls are one thing in NC; Clinton pulling ahead is another. Perception helps sculpt reality. And news stories down the line show an Obama campaign that is on the defensive and a Clinton campaign that is taking advantage of it…and the polls show some results. A WRAL news poll doesn’t show Clinton ahead — but, once again, the TRENDING in the polls is clear:
A WRAL news poll released Wednesday shows Barack Obama’s double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton among Tar heel Democrats is eroding.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. surveyed 400 likely Democratic voters Monday and Tuesday. The results show Obama with a 7 point lead over Clinton, with 9 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
“Right or wrong, it’s the Wright phenomenon for Obama,” said David McLennan, a political science professor at Peace College.
McLennan said Obama’s former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is dragging down the Illinois senator. Wright has made comments such as suggesting that the AIDS virus was invented by the government to destroy “people of color.”
“It is a media-driven story. Wright is very controversial. He makes controversial statements. He gets people fired up, but it’s not one of the top issues in the polls,” McLennan said.
Note again that polls are all over the place — and for confirmation of this, GO HERE to Pollster.com and see the graph of various polls. Obama partisans will say “Well, those polls are flawed because others show him well ahead!” Clinton partisans will pooh-pooh polls showing Obama in the lead, say they don’t count and point to the one showing Clinton ahead. But it is the trending of recent polls that needs to be watched — even though the graph that charts various polls shows Obama ahead.
THE BOTTOM LINE FACT: Both campaigns will have to pull-out-all-stops for the political ground war. An Obama win in NC would give him a cushion against his broken momentum and Clinton’s likely win in Indiana. A Clinton win in North Carolina would be considered an upset and ensure a tooth-and-nail battle right up to the convention and bolster Clinton’s argument that Obama has some electability problems, even though she has some of her own.
In reality, both Democratic candidates increasingly seem to be damaged political goods, but McCain is burdened with his anchor-like tie to President George W. Bush — a tie that could become increasingly toxic once the Democrats stop politically disemboweling each other and turn their focus instead on the Republican candidate. McCain’s Bush ties are a bigger sticking point with voters than Obama’s relationship with his pastor.
HERE’S A CROSS SECTION OF WEBLOG OPINION ON THE POLLS:
April 29th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll shows Senator Hillary Clinton now pulling slightly ahead of rival Senator Barack Obama — suggesting that she and others who seek to stop Obama from getting the Democratic nomination now have some of the Wright stuff to use to persuade Superdelegates to tilt to her:
Democrats at the national level remain very closely divided in their preferences for their party’s presidential nomination, with the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update showing 47% favoring Hillary Clinton and 46% supporting Barack Obama.
This marks the fifth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which the two Democratic candidates have been within a point of one another, as well as one of the few times in recent months in which the race has stabilized at the break-even point for more than a day or two. From a broad perspective, this situation marks a loss for Obama, who has generally been in the lead over Clinton for the last month. At the same time, Clinton — coming off of her victory in the Pennsylvania primary, and almost certainly benefiting from the news media focus on controversies surrounding Obama — has been unable to move into a significant lead.
Trending is important. And if this trend continues Clinton will have some data to argue to Superdelegates that she is candidate who could most easily beat presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain (the guy who is watching the Democratic race with a huge smile on his face).
On the other hand, Rasmussen Reports finds the Clinton-Obama race remains stable — although expectations that Obama will be the next President are going south:
The Democratic Presidential Nomination remains stable. It’s Obama 49%, Clinton 41% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Markets data, however, shows Obama’s chances for winning the nomination have slipped four percentage points since yesterday. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 76.0 % chance of victory.
Data from the Rasmussen Markets also shows that expectations for Obama to be the next President have also declined. As of Tuesday morning, expectations for Obama to win the White House were at 44%. That’s down from 49% a week ago and 54% a week-and-a-half ago. The decline is likely the result of both the Pennsylvania Primary results and the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright in the media spotlight. Polling data released yesterday shows that both Republicans and unaffiliated voters are less likely to believe that Obama is a stronger general election candidate than Clinton.
Clinton has unleashed a potential nightmare scenario for the Democrats with her claim to be leading in the popular vote. If Clinton is able to carry such a claim to the convention, it could significantly complicate efforts to unify Democrats for the fall campaign. The only way for Obama to effectively eliminate this potential problem is to do well enough in the remaining primaries so that he wins the popular vote no matter how it is counted.
That’ll be hard for Obama to do with Wright on his back, pounding him on the head and tripping him.
Cartoon by John Darkow, Columbia Daily Tribune, Missouri
April 28th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
How close is the race between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton among Democrats in the increasingly divided Democratic party? It remains a virtual tie…a stalemate…where one slip by one candidate could change the high-stakes dynamics of a race being closely watched by convention superdelegates.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted April 25-27 shows Democrats closely divided in their nomination preferences, with 47% favoring Barack Obama and 46% backing Hillary Clinton.
The race has been stable at a virtual dead heat in each of the last four Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports. This follows Clinton’s victory in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary — an event which has helped Clinton challenge what had been a growing sense of inevitability around Obama winning the nomination. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
Also, the two have been roughly tied in each individual day of polling included in today’s three-day rolling average. Barring any political firestorms along the lines of the recent Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Kosovo controversies, the race could very well remain closely contested through at least the May 6 Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
There is also no change in national registered voter preferences for the fall, with Clinton beating John McCain by three percentage points, 47% to 44%, and Obama running even with McCain, each at 45%.
But there are other polls that provide other glimpses into the evolving preferences of the Democratic and general electorate:
Thirty-four percent (34%) of Democrats nationwide now believe that Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race for the White House. That’s up from 32% earlier in April and 22% in late March.
As for Barack Obama, just 22% of Democrats say he should drop out. That’s down from 26% earlier in April and unchanged from 22% in March. Just 1% want both candidates to drop out and 45% aren’t ready for either to leave.
Nationally, Obama holds a modest but steady lead over Clinton in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
By a 62% to 25% mark, Obama supporters say that Clinton should leave the race. But, just 4% of those who support Senator Clinton agree. Clinton supporters are evenly divided as to whether Obama should drop out.
Overall, 58% of all voters now believe Obama will be the nominee. That’s down slightly from 62% earlier in the month. Among Democrats 59% expect Obama to win (down from 63%). Rasmussen Markets currently suggests that Obama has an 79.6% chance of winning the nomination.
2. A new Associated Press-Ipsos poll shows Clinton would have an easier time deafeating presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain:
Hillary Rodham Clinton now leads John McCain by 9 points in a head-to-head presidential matchup, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll that bolsters her argument that she is more electable than Democratic rival Barack Obama.
Obama and Republican McCain are running about even.
The survey released Monday gives the New York senator and former first lady a fresh talking point as she works to raise much-needed campaign cash and persuade pivotal undecided superdelegates to side with her in the drawn-out Democratic primary fight.
Helped by independents, young people and seniors, Clinton gained ground this month in a hypothetical match with Sen. McCain, the GOP nominee-in-waiting. She now leads McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Both Democrats were roughly even with McCain in the previous poll about three weeks ago.
Since then, Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary, raising questions anew about whether Obama can attract broad swaths of voters needed to triumph in such big states come the fall when the Democratic nominee will go up against McCain. At the same time, Obama was thrown on the defensive by his comment that residents of small-town America were bitter. The Illinois senator also continued to deal with the controversial remarks of his longtime Chicago pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
And two pollsters (D&R) agree: these numbers bode well for Clinton:
“I don’t think there’s any question that over the last three weeks her stature has improved,” said Harrison Hickman, a Democratic pollster unaligned in the primary. He attributed Clinton’s gains to people moving from the “infatuation stage” of choosing the candidate they like the most to a “decision-making stage” where they determine who would make the best president.
Added Steve Lombardo, a GOP pollster: “This just reinforces the sentiment that a lot of Republican strategists are having right now — that Clinton might actually be the more formidable fall candidate for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that Obama can’t seem to get his footing back.”
Note again that polls are see-saws that seemingly fluctuate with the conventional wisdom and with whatever candidate comes out better in a given news cycle. But the bottom line is: they show a serious erosion for Obama and a rebound for Clinton.
April 26th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
Add to the increasingly long list of bad news for Senator Barack Obama in his battle for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination the latest Newsweek poll which shows him losing ground shockingly fast to Senator Hillary Clinton:
After an important primary win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has reduced Democratic rival Barack Obama’s double-digit lead among registered Democrats and voters leaning Democratic by more than half, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Plagued by controversies over Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s comments and the candidate’s own “bitter” remarks, Obama has seen his favorability rating slip significantly in the last week, the poll found.
The survey found that Clinton now trails Obama by seven points, down from 19 just one week ago. The previous NEWSWEEK poll, conducted on the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, found that more than half (55 percent) of registered voters believed Obama was more electable, while 33 percent gave the edge to Clinton. The current poll finds Obama leading 46 percent to 38 percent.
The question becomes whether Clinton now has “Big Mo” or whether it’s a matter of Obama quickly losing it. But the Obama camp has received some bad news recently. Two key tidbits: his shrinking lead in the Gallup Daily tracking poll, coupled with signs that the news media narrative is now changing from “Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a chance” to “Hillary Clinton might actually be able to be nominated.”
Once again, polls fluctuate and trending is what matters…but the trending for Obama hasn’t been good this week and this poll contains little good news for his campaign:
One of the more problematic results for Obama was that four in 10 of registered voters (including Republicans and independents) now have an unfavorable opinion of him–and the same number said there is “no chance” they will vote for Obama if he becomes the nominee. Four in 10 registered voters (41 percent) say they have a less favorable opinion of Obama based on his association with his former pastor, Rev. Wright, whose racially and politically inflammatory sermons have been circulated on the Internet and covered in the media. A similar number (42 percent) say they will not vote for Obama because of comments he made about “bitter” small-town residents clinging to guns and religion.
There is, however, one ray of sunshine for the Illinois Senator:
Even so, the NEWSWEEK poll indicates that despite the political damage inflicted over recent weeks, Obama still edges out McCain in a trial head-to-head heat for the White House, 47 to 44 percent. That margin was only one point wider a week ago. Clinton—whose own favorability rating has not improved even as Obama’s has slipped—also holds a three point lead with 48 percent of the vote to the Arizona senator’s 45. Among all registered voters, more than half (53 percent) still hold a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to the 47 percent who view Clinton favorably and 51 percent who have favorable views of McCain.
But it’s clear the Obama camp is, at the last, on the defensive right now and, at the most, in a holding pattern. Note these developments:
1. Hillary Clinton is trying to press Obama to a Lincoln-Douglas style debate with no moderators. Since Obama has seldom gained from debates, it’s hard to imagine him agreeing no matter how much she tries to pressure him. And he is refusing. When candidates try to make another candidate not debating the issue, it usually fizzles unless the other candidate feels there is something to be genuinely gained. Her
