It’ll soon be time for California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to leave office — someone who came to the office supported by many independent voters, disgusted Democrats and exiled moderate Republicans who felt he could represent a new kind of politician and get results.
In one sense he was: for some of his tenure his positions were all over the place (in other times he seemed to veer more partisan Republican).
But in another way he proved not to be: he is leaving office with South Pole low poll ratings similar to the man who he replaced in a recall:
A month before the historic recall that drove Gov. Gray Davis from office in 2003, Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared in a TV commercial making a promise to the voters of California.
“Here’s my plan,” he said. “Audit everything, open the books, and then we end the crazy deficit spending. “… If you’re happy with the way things are, keep your current leaders. If you want to change this state, then join me.”
Voters joined in droves. But as he prepares to leave office seven years later, Schwarzenegger’s promises are a distant echo.
He leaves a legacy of landmark environmental laws, public works spending and the first steps of significant political reform. Yet Schwarzenegger also leaves California a financial basket case, with the nation’s lowest credit rating and a staggering $25.4 billion budget deficit — far larger than the $10.2 billion deficit he inherited from Davis.
At his peak in 2004, Schwarzenegger enjoyed a 65 percent approval rating in the nonpartisan Field Poll — higher than legendary governors Ronald Reagan or Pat Brown ever achieved. His latest rating is 23 percent, no different statistically than the 22 percent with which Davis left office.
“He was going to tear down the bureaucracy and blow up the boxes, make government more streamlined and efficient. It didn’t happen,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. “People still like the man, but he was just ineffective. He didn’t do what he said he was going to do.”
In watching Schwarzenegger over the years, and as someone who supported him, I now have to conclude that blaming it all the way California is set up is not accurate. In fact, he didn’t have the political skills or nimbleness to survive California’s political shark filled waters that were also teeming with starving economic barracudas. A lot of his early politicking got publicity due to the stylistic flourishes (meeting with GOPers and smoking cigars in a tent) but in the end he did not have the political skills, experience with politicians, or the ability to cope the way the state was set up or the savvy and political muscle to change the bureaucracy. Add to that the economic meltdown and the result was: disaster.
How many Republicans today are still talking about changing the constitution so someone born in another country can run for President?
(NOTE: I was interviewed for and quoted in Dan Weintraub’s book on Schwarzenegger Party of One: Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Rise of the Independent Vote. He characterized me as the typical California independent voter due to the times when I supported and did not support Schwarzenegger and my reasons why.)
Unlike Ronald Reagan, Schwarzenegger will leave office joining the ranks of Jesse Ventura as an example of a colorful celebrity personality who meant well and talked a great game but was not a good fit for the political world.
At. All.
The phrase “like Reagan” is often thrown around inaccurately — such as in the case of Sarah Palin who faced slap-down pointed remarks from some prominent Republicans when she likened herself to him. In fact, Reagan had a wealth of political experience before he became Governor in his union work and other political activities. And when Reagan came to office had had served more than a half-term as Governor.
So who has become the hope for California? Believe it or not, among many people, Gov. Elect Jerry Brown. Him again? Yes. And the reason if you talk to some Californians about 2011 is that you don’t find people who hate Jerry Brown and if they feel he is a political retread they feel that at least he has the political smarts to try and navigate California’s now muddied and dangerous political and economic waters.
This feeling can also be seen in an L. A. Times piece that ran a little more than a week ago:
From Sacramento — So far, Jerry Brown has been exhibiting the traits of a wizened old pol that led Californians to elect him governor.
He’s showing early signs of matching the expectations of millions who concluded he just might be the seasoned sage who can straighten out Sacramento’s budget shambles.
True, one transition week does not make a governorship. And Brown, history shows, still is plenty susceptible to screwing up — a wrong turn, a goofy idea, an alienating arrogance.
He hasn’t even made a tough decision yet.
But enjoy the moment. And give credit where it’s due.
Last week, the governor-elect made two virtually flawless and pivotal moves:
• He hosted an unprecedented pre-inaugural, acrimony-free budget briefing in Sacramento’s Memorial Auditorium for hundreds of legislators and local government officials. Actually, it was a horror show.
All the sordid, ugly budget masquerading that Capitol politicians have been participating in for years was illustrated for all to see on huge charts. The many guilty blanched, but no one disputed the facts. There was a rare minimum of partisanship and posturing, and none from Brown.
Fingers were pointed at everyone — none at a single person or even party.
“It’s unusual to have your dirty laundry aired,” noted one Brown advisor, who asked for anonymity because he wasn’t necessarily speaking for the governor-elect. “Everyone feels some culpability. No one likes to confront the bad decisions they’ve made. So the meeting was very powerful.”
• Brown also made two unassailable appointments to critical positions.
AND:
Word around the Capitol is that Brown is moving toward a special election in June. Voters would be asked to approve an extension of temporary tax increases worth $8.3 billion.
The word is mostly coming from hopeful Democrats and public employee unions desperate for more tax revenue. Brown hasn’t yet decided, insiders say. There’s a bad history of governors failing with special elections.
Brown would first need to show the public that existing tax money is being spent wisely. And he’d need to keep slashing programs — or at least demonstrate the pain of continued slashing.
Meanwhile, the governor-elect is talking to legislators like adults — listening and not lecturing, shunning the simplistic. And they welcome that.
“What I like about Gov.-elect Brown is that he’s real easy to talk to,” said Senate Republican Leader Bob Dutton of Rancho Cucamonga. “You can actually have a two-way dialogue with him. Sure, we won’t agree on everything. But he’s very open and approachable, and that’s what we need today.
“He’s certainly a more seasoned and polished politician than I’ll ever be.”
Of course this is a honeymoon period (and good luck on getting Californians to approve increasing taxes) — but the point is that everything goes in cycles and many here now feel they’ve tried the non-politician. Perhaps now it’s time for the politician and one who’s been there/done that and was there and done that at a time when California was a prosperous state.
Stay tuned to see if Brown succeeds or winds up himself the target of a recall…
Schwarzenegger photo: AP. Brown photo: Christian Science Monitor.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.