President George Bush sounds poised to yield to those who say that his present stance on immigration runs counter to what’s desired by the party’s base, according to the New York Times:
On the eve of nationwide hearings that could determine the fate of his immigration bill, President Bush is signaling a new willingness to negotiate with House Republicans in an effort to revise the stalled legislation before Election Day.
Republicans both inside and outside the White House say Mr. Bush, who has long insisted on comprehensive reform, is now open to a so-called enforcement-first approach that would put new border security programs in place before creating a guest worker program or path to citizenship for people living in the United States illegally.
This would put Bush at odds with the GOP’s apparent front-runner for 2008, Arizona Senator John McCain. Will McCain change his position, too? Those who’ve pressed for a “comprehensive” plan have feared that if the enforcement-first approach is put into place the second phase could, in fact, never occur. MORE:
“He thinks that this notion that you can have triggers is something we should take a close look at, and we are,” said Candi Wolff, the White House director of legislative affairs, referring to the idea that guest worker and citizenship programs would be triggered when specific border security goals had been met, a process that could take two years.
The shift is significant because Mr. Bush has repeatedly said he favors legislation like the Senate’s immigration bill, which establishes border security, guest worker and citizenship programs all at once. The enforcement-first approach puts Mr. Bush one step closer to the House, where Republicans are demanding an enforcement-only measure.“The willingness to consider a phased-in situation, that’s a pretty big concession from where they were at,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, whose closeness to Mr. Bush dates to his days as a top Republican National Committee official. “It’s a suggestion they are willing to negotiate.”
In a sign of that willingness, the White House last week invited a leading conservative proponent of an enforcement-first bill, Representative Mike Pence, Republican of Indiana, to present his ideas to Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney in the Oval Office.
Ms. Wolff said the president found the Pence plan “pretty intriguing.”
In an interview Tuesday, Mr. Pence said the president used precisely those words in their talk. Mr. Pence said that the meeting was scheduled to last 10 or 20 minutes but went on for 40, and that the president “was quite adamant throughout the meeting to make the point that he hoped I would be encouraged.”
Mr. Bush has little choice but to negotiate, although he is on delicate terrain. Some House Republicans remain deeply opposed to even a guest worker program, and any move closer to the House could upset the delicate bipartisan compromise that enabled legislation to pass the Senate.
Polls show the public is deeply troubled by the problem of illegal immigration, and Mr. Bush, who has made the issue his domestic policy initiative, is eager for a victory on Capitol Hill. But a carefully constructed White House strategy to prod the House and Senate into compromise collapsed last month when skittish House Republicans opted for field hearings instead.
The Times report suggests a political tie in:
…The meetings will undoubtedly expose the deep Republican rift just as the elections draw near, and some say they are simply a way to stave off legislation until after November. Democrats, eager to pick up Congressional seats, intend to use the hearings to drive home the idea that Republicans have failed to address illegal immigration, a tactic that could further complicate prospects for a bill before Election Day.
So it sounds as if a motive for this could be getting something in place by election time and, not uncoincidentally, getting in place what the Republican party’s base wants. It’s a smart strategy for re-solidifying lost support among the party’s base in time for the elections and a move sure to spark controversy among those who felt Bush was doing the right thing by opting to support the “comprehensive” approach.
If Bush opts for the House approach (and the Times story is seemingly coming out now to signal to all and sundry that Bush will not battle the House) it will mean he has retreated from what some writers said was his deeply-felt stand on immigration and yielded to the House and GOP hardliners in the end. It could help the GOP hold the House in 2006 but there could be long-term political consequences for Bush and the GOP further down the line.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.