Gallup has immediately gotten to work polling the populace on Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. (And let’s face it… what else do they have to occupy their time in August until the conventions begin?) Pollsters have been taking this body temperature check immediately following the VP announcements for more than twenty years, so we have some decent history to draw on for comparison.
So, clearly, Biden has a positive impact if only a small one. It’s a net gain of 7% for Obama. (Plus 14 and minus 7.) How does that stack up with other picks over the last two decades? Well, not as impressively as you might think. Joe Lieberman boosted Al Gore by a net of 12%. John Edwards and Jack Kemp gave a bump of 17% and 18% respectively to John Kerry and Bob Dole. Al Gore gave a whopping 25% boost to Bill Clinton in ’92. But Biden did score higher than two other veep picks during that period… Dick Cheney and Dan Quayle.
Part of these lukewarm numbers could be because of the lack-of-visibility Biden has had on the national stage. (More than half of respondents said they had either “never heard of him” or “had no opinion.”
On the key question of whether or not he was qualified to take command, Biden at least did as well as several other picks. 57% said he was qualified, tied with Edwards and Cheney, so coming in well above half is certainly a good thing. Still, it was a lower percentage than any of the other veep choices during the period of study except for Lieberman (52%) and Quayle. (32%)
So if the first rule in running mate selection is to “do no harm” then it seems that Biden easily clears that bar. If he’s going to turn into a large positive boost, however, clearly a lot of work remains to be done.