America’s combat mission in Iraq has ended but exiting from the quicksand without its dignity in tatters remains a long shot. The chief culprit may be clouded vision in Washington rather than fractious Iraqi politics.
The key players, President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Robert Gates were prudently non-triumphal in their comments as they inaugurated Operation New Dawn in Iraq. But Obama did say that his goals still include an Iraqi government that is “just, representative and accountable to the Iraqi people.” Biden’s comment that “politics has broken out in Iraq” expressed his cautious optimism that such a government might happen despite somber times ahead.
This looks like wishful thinking judging from the current mess and the recent rise in internecine violence. But Iraqis may surprise all of us once the heavy US military footprint become less visible and lighter on the daily lives of Iraq’s people. For that to happen, the 50,000 remaining soldiers and some 20,000 mercenaries and advisers will have to really stay out of sight of ordinary Iraqis.
There is considerable skepticism about whether that is possible. A successful attack on the remaining “advise and assist” soldiers or “partnered counterterrorism” forays could quickly make Obama look weak on Iraq and spread new fog over his Iraq policy. On the other hand if Iraq starts to stabilize, he might be tempted to turn triumphal ahead of the 2012 elections by spinning it as a result of his wisdom and foresight. Much depends on whether he sticks to the careful vision laid out in his End to Combat Mission speech, especially focus on domestic economic issues for the metrics of his success as a President.
So far the favored tactic of Iraqi insurgents of all stripes was to prevent moderate Iraqis from working successfully with the Americans. That scuttled Washington’s hopes for Iraq and stopped it from claiming victory, forcing Obama to settle for a modest claim: “… we have met our responsibility. Now, it’s time to turn the page.”
At the same time, insurgents conducted small wars among and within factions — whether Shiite, Sunni or Kurd — preventing successful coalition-building for a national government and making the country ungovernable. Despite their fratricidal enmities, they found a binding thread in their patriotic fervor against the very intrusive presence of foreign troops on Iraqi soil. No faction in Iraq of any color wants American soldiers in their ancient nation. But all know that American influence can no longer be rooted out of ordinary Iraqis even if almost all troops leave at the end of summer 2011.
The core of that influence is the dawn of hope among a long-oppressed people that having a just, representative and accountable government is not longer a fantasy. This hope was not available throughout Iraq’s long history.
American soldiers and politicians have no friends in Iraq but their war goal as stated now by Obama does have innumerable friends. Those friends were made when large numbers of Iraqis courageously took part in elections across the country. The elections were far from perfect but were more genuine and free than ever before.
As soon as the US military presence becomes less visible, the feeling of people in the streets will change from that of a nation at war to one that is trying to build peace within its civil society. Before the Americans came, there was civil peace but it was imposed by ruthless rulers, including Saddam Hussein, in favor of dominant minorities. In Saddam’s case, his clan from the Tikrit area imposed a bloody peace using the state-authorized power of cruel secret police, guns and lethal gas.
Despite the mess in Iraq, that kind of dictatorial control is no longer possible. No group has sufficient military power to crush all its opponents and impose obedience on the people through any mixture of fear or rewards financed by oil export income.
The Shiites have a small majority in the population but they are too hopelessly divided among themselves to join together in a decisive civil war against the minority Sunnis, who ruled with an iron first until Saddam’s downfall. In any case, Teheran will not allow Shiites hostile to the Iranian theocracy to grab power in Iraq.
The Sunnis will not allow Shiites of any kind to rule unhindered over the nation and Kurds will not allow Iraqi Arabs to crush them again. Americans may want to wish good riddance to Iraq and its impossibly unruly clans, tribes and factions. But they have given a huge helping hand to a new dawn in Iraq.
That hand was the rock they threw into the Iraqi hornets’ nest. The confusing buzz going on right now is a blessing in disguise. No faction in Iraq is capable of conducting a prolonged civil war to clearly defeat its opponents. If the US troops and advisers stay within their limited roles, and above all remain neutral, the internecine struggles within Iraq could peter out within months.
Once it becomes clear that Washington will not use its power to impose any faction over others, everyone will get down to the hardnosed bargaining required to set up a functioning coalition government. That is because Iraqis have tasted the ballot. Owning them again with guns is no longer possible.