It is increasingly clear that Rudy G. will not win today, and some believe he might very well drop out of the race after all the Florida votes are counted. Does that, in turn, suggest January 29, 2008 should forever hence be known as “Goodbye Rudy Tuesday”? [With apologies to the Rolling Stones, plus anyone out there from whom I might have inadvertently plagiarized this play on lyrics.]

Once again, the incomparable Dave Barry wields both the sharp and dull edges of humor to tell it like it is. An excerpt: Most of the candidates ignored Wyoming and focused on the New Hampshire primary, except Rudy Giuliani, who’s following a shrewd strategy, originally developed by the Miami Dolphins, of not entering the race until he has been mathematically eliminated. H/t Andrew Sullivan.

It is at once painful and exhausting to live with the conflicts inside my brain. One year, I’m a Republican, then an Independent, then an almost-Democrat, and back again to Republican. One minute, I embrace hard-line conservative platitudes about shrinking the size of government; the next, I’m ready to embrace universal healthcare, regardless of the cost. Thus my political revolving-door spins. I’m no more reliable or constant in my theories and beliefs than a child. One would...

If you live in the St. Louis area, you’ve already heard this story. If you don’t live here, read on. The Archbishop of the St. Louis Diocese, Raymond Burke, is well known for his uncompromising views on Catholic doctrine and his flat-out inability to make his case without sparking an uproar. Among other grating acts, Burke once criticized a local Catholic hospital for inviting pro-choice singer Sheryl Crow to perform at a fundraiser. Burke’s latest target is Rick Majerus, who...

I almost sent the email from the party planner to my spam folder, but then (against my better judgement) I decided to open it. As a result, I learned that the Proof Bar and Lounge in New York City will be hosting: … Debate Viewing Parties on January 30th (Republican Debates) and 31st (Democrat Debates). There will be a complimentary hour of all-American food beginning at 6pm and a free Bud or Bud Light draft if you show your political colors by wearing red or blue. There will also be $4 Sam...

Up front, let me be brutally clear: For reasons that have much more to do with my gut than with my brain, I think both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were reasonably good Presidents. Were either of them perfect? Hell no. Were they the best Presidents since the founding of the country? Absolutely not. But they each turned in respectable performances, and — on an admittedly selfish level — my thoughts about the future were generally optimistic and my good fortune was considerably...

BREAKING NEWS: Fred Thompson has pulled out of the presidential race. Sample reactions from Andrew Sullivan, Michael vdG, and John Cole. There’s not much to add here: High expectations. Unfulfilled. Yawn.

On Saturday, Andrew Sullivan posted a “Quote for the Day” from David Mamet, which he (Sullivan) picked up via “Monday Morning Clacker” writing at greenmountainpolitics1. In turn, “Clacker” took the quote from a New York magazine interview with the famed playwright. During these dog days of January, the quote that Sullivan and Clacker zeroed in on is a great reminder about just how miraculous the US of A is and why we should celebrate it. But that quote is not...

So after eight years of waiting, my main man — Senator Johnny Mac — finally won a primary in the very state that, in 2000, helped set the course for the so-called Bush presidency. Good for John. Unfortunately, I fear the most challenging days of his campaign are in front of him, not behind him. The contemporary Republican establishment does not like McCain and is expected to pull out the stops to derail him leading up to Florida and Super Tuesday. And if the Senator from Arizona still...

Disclaimer: This post is about politics, not Ozzy Osbourne. Question: How do you make Rudy G., Johnny Mac, Mitt the Hair, and Law-and-Order Thompson look sane and reasonable? Answer: Stand them next to the Huckster and He of Two First Names. Disclaimer #2: Now that I think about it, maybe this should be an Ozzy Osbourne post. Some of the lyrics of his song, “Crazy Train,” seem remarkably appropriate after reading the two links above … I’ve listened to preachers I’ve...

Shaun Mullen and Michael Stickings have already chimed in today on Mike Huckabee, so I won’t. What I will chime in on is the larger context in which people like Huckabee operate. In short, they believe in the reconstruction of everything around them — from government to science to media — so those things fit their interpretation of their bible. Anything that is not thus reconstructed is not valid to them. Andrew Sullivan zeroes in on this mentality today and concludes: Once you...

Steve Benen — one of my favorite politically left writers — has given in to the siren’s call and attempted to read the crystal ball on where the Republican primaries are headed. He offers four possible scenarios: * Republicans make their peace with McCain and he gets the nomination; * Republicans decide they just can’t live with McCain as the party’s leader, but they split the anti-McCain vote four ways and he gets the nomination anyway; * Republicans decide they just can’t...

1. It’s official: My perfect Iowa predictions were a fluke. Not only did I miss NH (like everyone else), I fumbled Michigan, big time. Accordingly, recognizing that I may very well be incapable of accurately guessing my own birthday, I have now eaten a slice of humble pie and will refrain from further primary predictions … maybe. 2. Bemoan family/dynasty politics all you want, but voters still take comfort in a familiar name. George. Mitt. What’s the difference? Michiganers...

I traded notes recently with the op-ed page editor of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch regarding a new essay I wanted to submit for publication. Unfortunately, he and I never reached consensus on the copy because he maintains a strict rule (understably so) against unsolicited op-ed submissions that endorse or critique particular candidates — and, try as I might, I could not develop a piece pegged to the Feb. 5 Missouri primaries without going down the endorsement/critique road. If anything useful...

Here’s what I submitted this morning in our office poll re: the top-three finishers in Michigan, plus my guesses on the approximate percentage of votes they’ll each receive. For those just tuning in, today’s vote in Michigan is effectively Republicans only, thanks to an ongoing feud between the DNC and Michigan Democrats. REPUBLICANS 1. McCain 27% 2. Romney 26% 3. Huckabee 16% As I told my colleagues, my gut says Romney will eke out a win, but my heart hopes McCain will triumph. While...

Andrew Sullivan suggests that question today in this very brief post on the numbers for McCain and Obama in South Carolina. In following the imbedded links and beyond, I stumbled on this mea culpa at Rasmussen Reports. Money quote: “It is hard to remember a time when the polling and expectations were so universally different from what really happened.” Of course, Rasmussen is not alone in their frustrated attempts to recall such a discrepancy. Granted, there was that Truman-Dewey head-scratcher...

My prediction perfection in Iowa ended in New Hampshire. It was nice while it lasted, comparable I assume (on a much smaller scale) to the sensation of being ranked #1 in the just-concluded college football season. On the bright side — if misery does, in fact, love company — I am blessed this morning with many confused and humbled “friends.” And like those friends, my picks in the R column were much better than my picks in the D column. After each name below, I list the...

Following up on my Iowa picks last week in a limited office poll, here’s what I submitted today for the top three finishers in NH — plus, my guesses on the approximate percentage of votes they’ll each receive. (With some NH areas already voting, I probably should have submitted my guesses last night, but so it goes.) DEMOCRATS 1. Obama 39% 2. Clinton 30% 3. Edwards 18% REPUBLICANS 1. McCain 34% 2. Romney 29% 3. Huckabee 13% Agree or disagree with my guesses, what are your...

“There are painters who transform the sun (in)to a yellow spot, but there are others who, with the help of their art and their intelligence, transform a yellow spot into the sun.” – Pablo Picasso

I would have posted this “news” earlier today, but I wanted to wait for my boss to confirm the results. In a limited, six-person survey in our office yesterday morning (no bets allowed, just cash-free guesses), he asked for our predictions on the top-three finishers in both parties in the Iowa caucuses. Now, keep in mind, all six of the people involved in this mini-survey spend a fair portion of their professional lives managing public policy issues, and most of us spend a fair portion...

At Politico, the lead, post-Iowa headline concerning the Republican candidates makes this claim: “GOP race in total disarray.” At TMV earlier this morning, Shaun Mullen suggested it’s time for the GOP to panic. I respect the Politico and Shaun immensely, but I’m compelled to challenge both; the former more so than the latter. To the writers of the Politico story, John Harris and Jonathan Martin … Guys, I realize you may not write your own headlines, but your copy...

In the hooplah surrounding today’s caucuses in Iowa and the anticipation of New Hampshire’s primaries next Tuesday, here’s a calendar entry that will probably be overlooked by many: tomorrow is the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Orphan Drug Act (ODA). Who cares? Well, our family does, along with millions of others. We care because we all know someone who lives with one of 7,000 rare diseases — ailments that individually affect fewer than 200,000 Americans but in...

Those are the words a prominent cable industry political reporter, Ted Hearn, used to describe the core criteria for “stories that claim a financial quid pro quo.” He then concluded that at least one element of a recent WaPo story on John McCain “had just the bull.” Hearn summarizes his dispute with the WaPo (and other media reporting similar allegations) as follows: The claim in each story was this: Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) performed political “favors” for Cablevision...

And so we now find suggestive evidence that Ron Paul — the Congressman from Texas, that brash and bold libertarian posing as a Republican running for president — may not believe in evolution, causing both Andrew Sullivan and Ronald Bailey to flinch. When will candidates of a certain faith learn to answer this question intelligently? It’s not that hard, to wit: Within the scope of evolutionary science and divine-creator faith, there is ample room to believe in both. I’m one...

I’m no fan of the NFL Network, for both professional and personal reasons. I work for one of the cable broadband companies that has refused to bend to the league’s pressure tactics, and while I’m an avid fan, I think the idea of a 24/7 channel devoted to pro footbal is a waste of time. But even I have to give the NFL and Commish Goodell props for making the historic Patriots-Giants game (this Saturday night) available on a national basis, including to those who are still watching...