Via Yglesias, check out this interesting map showing where McCain did well in ‘08 in relation to Bush in ‘04. It makes sense that he would do better in Arizona and Alaska, as well as in the Florida panhandle and parts of Georgia (given his military record), but his strength was clearly in that dark-red swathe that, from west to east, begins in Oklahoma, sweeps across Arkansas, Tennessee, and northern Alabama, dipping down into northern and eastern Texas, as well as most of Louisiana,...

Believe it or not, yes (like Maine, Nebraska apportions its electoral votes by congressional district): [Obama's] odds of bagging an electoral vote in Nebraska grew stronger this morning, with word that 10,000 to 12,000 early ballots and 5,200 provisional ballots are left to count in Douglas County. Obama won about 61 percent of the early votes counted before Tuesday’s election. If that percentage holds with the early ballots left to count, Obama stands a strong chance of winning the Omaha-area...

“What In The Hell Happened in Alaska?” asks Nate Silver. Good question. As of right now, Republican incumbent Ted Stevens is leading Democratic challenger Mark Begich 48 to 47 (with 99 percent reporting) in their Senate race. The margin is 3,353 (with almost 210,000 votes counted). As I mentioned the other day, however, there are tens of thousands of ballots left to count: absentee and early ballots, as well as questioned ones. So what stinks? 1) As Nate Silver points out, even with all...

Clintonite and Congressman Rahm Emanuel has accepted Obama’s offer to be his chief of staff. Like David Corn and Ezra Klein, I’m ambivalent about it. On the one hand, Emanuel hasn’t exactly been an ally of the liberal-progressive elements in the Democratic Party. On the other hand, he’s a tough, hard-nosed insider and aggressive partisan with White House experience. So what does his appointment mean? What does it signal with respect to the Obama presidency? – Is Obama...

Obama’s win was all over the front pages of our newspapers yesterday and the lead story on our television news. From what I could tell, it was a really big deal for Canadians. I know that’s not exactly a scientific way to put it, but I do know that public opinion polls showed overwhelming support for Obama leading up to the election, that there was genuine interest in the election and its outcome, and that, by and large, Canadians were paying very close attention, and still are. Certainly...

I’ve been trying all day today to put my finger on just how I feel about yesterday, to find the right word for it. I still feel overcome, overwhelmed. I’m euphoric, but not deliriously so, immensely happy, but not without a sense of the difficulties and challenges that lie ahead. Joyous, but also sober. Incredulous, on one level, but also humble. Aware of what happened, but not yet fully. As I’ve been telling people today, we have been witnesses to history, to something very, very...

There’s a lot of live-blogging going on tonight, as you might expect. Here are some links for your convenience: I’ll be live-blogging, along with several of my co-bloggers, from before 7 pm ET to well into the early-morning hours. Come check it out, and, should you feel so inclined, join the conversation by adding your comments. I’d love to hear from you. – The Reaction And, of course, make sure you follow Shaun’s post here at TMV. Here are some others. I’ll be...

Peter Beinart wrote this in yesterday’s Washington Post: Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven’t helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin’s problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin’s brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s — which...

For what it’s worth, Marc Ambinder has Karl Rove’s map going into the election. It’s Obama 338, McCain 220. Over the weekend, I predicted 375 to 163 for Obama. The difference is that Rove gives Indiana (11), Missouri (11), and North Carolina (15) to McCain, whereas I give them to Obama. This morning, I think that my prediction may be overly optimistic. I can certainly see all three of those states going to McCain. I may change my mind as the day goes on, but I’m going to stick...

Ahead in the polls, and with the Kerry states pretty much wrapped up, including Pennsylvania, Obama has been setting his sights lately on traditionally-red states like Indiana and North Carolina, and even McCain’s home state of Arizona. Obama has substantial leads in key battleground states like Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire, the race is more or less even in others like Missouri and Indiana, and polls show that he is close even in Georgia. And, now, even in Louisiana, where, according...

Kos is reporting that Arizona is “neck and neck.” McCain is up by just a single point in a new Research 2000 poll, 48 to 47, with Obama leading 54 to 42 among early voters. (And, in a possible preview of the 2010 Senate race, Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who has an extremely high favourability rating in the state, is ahead of McCain 53-45.) With the Obama campaign recruiting volunteers and campaigning seriously in Arizona, surely a sign that things are going well, McCain will actually...

Think things are bad here, financially speaking (not so bad here in Canada, but pretty bad south of the border)? Well, be thankful you don’t live in Iceland*: Iceland’s central bank upped its key interest rate by 6 percentage points to 18 percent on Tuesday, two weeks after it had eased policy to soften the impact of the country’s financial meltdown. The move, which one economist called extreme, was the latest by authorities to prop up the country’s frozen currency and markets,...

In other words, McCain’s latest campaign strategy. We saw it in Pennsylvania, where prominent Republicans sent out an e-mail to Jewish voters likening the situation in 2008 to the situation in Europe in the 1930s and ’40s (with Obama akin to Neville Chamberlain, an enabler of evil — then the Nazis, now Iran). And we’re seeing it again in a new McCain ad likely to be aired in Florida (if it hasn’t started airing already). Via Benen, the ad says this: Iran. Radical Islamic...

I thought it was excellent: the focus on the economy, on the middle class, on his personal story, a story that is so profoundly American, on a strong foreign policy that focuses on the real threats and that restores America’s standing in the world, on the themes of hope and change that have come to define Obama’s run for the presidency from the very beginning. And, once again, as in the debates, he presented himself as a strong, determined leader with a bold vision, certainly not someone...

My Headline of the Day comes from no less a media behemoth than The New York Times: Second-Guessing the Vice-Presidential Pick A few thoughts: 1) Duh. 2) The Times is a bit late getting to this. The second-guessing has been going on for weeks. Some of it started right away. There aren’t any new revelations here, though recent comments from Ridge and Graham, critical of the Palin pick, are right up front. 3) Let the blame game continue. The article’s author, Adam Nagourney, notes, dryly,...

(Sorry, I meant to post this over the weekend. But, as far as I’m concerned, the story hasn’t gotten nearly enough attention.) From NYT’s The Caucus: A new e-mail making the rounds among Jewish voters in Pennsylvania this week falsely alleged that Mr. Obama “taught members of Acorn to commit voter registration fraud,” and equated a vote for Senator Barack Obama with the “tragic mistake” of their Jewish ancestors, who “ignored the warning signs in the...

Just like in St. Louis last weekend, Obama’s rally in Denver yesterday was another “wow” event on the campaign trail: over 100,000 people were there. And his speech, some of which was what we’ve heard before, was in part a direct response to Palin’s recent claim that there is a real America and, presumably, an un-real America: There are no real or fake parts of this country. We are not separated by the pro-America and anti-America parts of this nation – we all love...

With the race supposedly tightening, for so we are being told, McCain was on Meet the Press yesterday morning. Among other things, he … guaranteed victory? Here’s what he said: “I guarantee you that two weeks from now, you will see this has been a very close race, and I believe that I’m going to win it. We’re going to do well in this campaign, my friend. We’re going to win it, and it’s going to be tight, and we’re going to be up late. To be precise,...

In today’s Washington Post, former Bush speechwriter David Frum argues that the Palinization of the McCain presidential run, while igniting the base, has badly backfired: There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him. The race is basically over: “The very same campaign strategy that has belatedly mobilized the Republican core has alienated and offended the great national middle, which...

Believe it or not, Sarah Palin gave a “policy” speech yesterday in support of (and in support of full government funding of) the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA). In her speech, Palin stressed that “the most valuable thing of all is information” and that “[e]arly identification of a cognitive or other disorder, especially autism, can make a life-changing difference.” However, she also criticized certain “pet projects,” such as fruit-fly...

Don’t expect the likes of Bill Kristol or Charles Krauthammer, or even David Brooks, to switch allegiance anytime soon, or ever, but the list of Republicans — and fairly high-profile ones — coming out for Obama is getting longer and longer: Colin Powell Ken Adelman Arne Carlson William Weld Now it’s distinguished conservative intellectual Charles Fried, solicitor general during Reagan’s second term and currently a law professor at Harvard — oh, and until just...

Does anyone care that Charles Krauthammer will be voting for McCain? Oh, no, he’s not one of those “wet-fingered conservatives leaping to Barack Obama before they’re left out in the cold without a single state dinner for the next four years,” as if that’s the only reason so many of them are lining up behind Obama, he’s the courageous, trend-bucking conservative who sees things as they really are: it’s Obama who’s gone negative, not McCain, and, yes,...

Question: Do you think you’re intellectual? Palin: Yehhh-sss. Now that’s freakin’ hilarious. (Even if, or perhaps precisely because, she wasn’t trying to be funny.) You can read the full interview, at People, here. ********** Bonus funny: McCain to Imus: “I think she’s the most qualified of anyone recently who has run for vice president to tell you the truth.” Hmmm. More qualified than Gore, Kemp, and Cheney? Even more qualified than McCain’s best pal...

It wasn’t all that long ago — actually, about two and a half weeks ago — that the McCain campaign pulled out of Michigan and set its sights on three key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. (Although he was behind quite decisively in all three.) Well, it now looks like it’s all about Pennsylvania. As Jim Rutenberg of NYT’s The Caucus reported yesterday, McCain is reducing his advertising in five heretofore battleground states: New Hampshire, Wisconsin,...

For those of you who can’t get enough Palin — I’ve pretty much had enough, though, obviously, I’m still paying attention — the L.A. Times has an interesting feature today on Palin’s five-year, four-school, three-state college career. In short, she is “barely remembered at all,” having “left behind few traces.” I don’t think you need to have attended, say, Harvard Law School to be president — and consider that Bush is both a Harvard...