Answering the biggest question of the day — “So is Sarah Palin running, or what?” — I would note that signs are indeed pointing to YES. And the latest sign is that she’s embarking on a pre-campaignish bus tour: In a move designed to propel her closer to a presidential run, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will set out on a bus tour of the country on Sunday, making stops at symbolic sites along the way. “Starting this weekend, Sarah Palin will embark on a ‘One Nation’...

A few quick hits as we all try to sort out the meaning of yesterday’s Democratic victory in New York’s heavily Republican 26th Congressional District: Politico: “Have Democrats cracked the code for 2012?” Nate Silver, NYT/538: “Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats.” Steve Benen sums it up: “What we saw in Buffalo was a test — how is the public responding to the GOP’s far-right agenda in Congress? It’s a test Republicans...

So you remember that huge no-interest revolving charge account Tiffany gave Newt Gingrich? Well, even with Tiffany’s explanation and The Newt’s dismissals, the story just doesn’t make any sense. It’s still not clear how it worked and why the Gingriches needed it (other than to buy lots of really, really expensive jewelry, though they surely have enough money of their own not to need credit there), nor why they seem to have had the account in place, owing hundreds of thousands...

If you’re interested, I’ve been live-blogging the NY-26 special election this evening. Check it out. About a third of precincts have reported. Still a long way to go.

You never know. It hardly seems likely, but the veep’s not ruling himself out… yet. And, you know, it’s never too early to start thinking about future presidential elections. Well, sure, it can be, but what’s interesting is how many top-name Republicans seem to be staying out of the race for 2012 while keeping their options open for 2016. Think about it. Obama looks pretty formidable. Were he to win, 2016 would be an open race in both parties. There’s no natural successor...

Yes, it’s today, at long last, the special election in New York’s 26th Congressional District to replace Republican Chris Lee, who resigned earlier this year. I wrote about the election here and here, but let me explain again what’s going on here: In a heavily Republican district in Western New York, the combination of a Tea Party challenger (Jack Davis) and a Republican who supported Paul Ryan’s deeply unpopular anti-Medicare plan (Jane Corwin) have given the Democrat (Kathy...

Guest post by Ali Ezzatyar Ali Ezzatyar is a journalist and American attorney practising in Paris, France. His beard is long and grey; he is reputed for living a rather simple life, but Israel’s prime minister recently called him the greatest threat to the world. He is the Supreme Leader of Iran. As attention remains focused on Abbottabad, Iran’s nuclear program continues nearby. Some are hoping that news from Damascus to Fukushima will influence events in Iran, as it fades from foreign...

Following upon President Obama’s immigration speech in El Paso on Tuesday, Senate Democrats will re-introduce the DREAM Act (in full, the Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors Act), which would give undocumented young people a path to citizenship if they go to college or serve in the military. The bill passed the House in December but met obstruction in the Senate, where, of course, Republicans will again do their utmost to block it. So what’s the point? Well, it’s...

There may be something to be said for a third party in American politics, or even for the American system to become a multi-party system, but the reality is that it’s a two-party system (i.e., a system with two dominant parties and some tiny ones that never win anything) and that third parties have generally failed to capture the public’s attention. In the recent past, there has been talk of a third party emerging in the center to capture independent voters — and, in generally,...

From the Times: The adult sons of Osama bin Laden have lashed out at President Obama in their first public reaction to their father’s death, accusing the United States of violating its basic legal principles by killing an unarmed man, shooting his family members and disposing of his body in the sea. And? Look, I realize that in a perfect world Osama would have been put on trial for his “alleged” crimes. But in a perfect world there never would have been the attacks of 9/11, and...

From the NYT: No European government has condemned or criticized the killing of Osama bin Laden by American commandos, but the questions raised about the changing details of his death sharpened considerably after the White House revealed that he did not fire a weapon, was not armed and did not use a woman as a protective shield. Some are questioning whether “justice” in fact was done, as President Obama portrayed the killing, and whether the American troops made any effort to capture...

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall, you’ve probably heard, posted some rather interesting tweets on the killing of Osama bin Laden. I wrote about them on Wednesday, defending Mendenhall but not excusing a couple of the more inexcusable tweets. Presenting himself as a 9/11 Truther? Not so good. Seeming to be an Osama apologist? Also not so good. But saying that there’s something wrong with celebrating death, with the lust for bloody vengeance, refusing to be a judge (which...

Guest post by Christopher Miller Chris Miller, a Truman National Security Project fellow, was a sergeant in the U.S. Army’s 1st Armored Division through two tours in Iraq, during which he earned a Purple Heart, and an adviser to the Iraqi Army. After returning to the U.S., he was involved with VoteVets.org and Operation Free, travelling the country as part of the Veterans for American Power Tour. He is currently studying British and European law. ********** When it comes to the budget and...

There was much ado yesterday over the Obama Administration’s apparent “reversal” with respect to where and how to try 9/11 mastermind Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and four others involved in the attacks. They will be tried not in a civilian court but before a military commission at Gitmo. The NYT’s Charlie Savage called it “a major policy reversal,” suggesting that the White House “abandoned [its] plan amid a political backlash.” While “[t]he shift...

And so the right-wing Supreme Court continues to erode the First Amendment: The Supreme Court on Monday let stand an Arizona program that aids religious schools, saying in a 5-to-4 decision that the plaintiffs had no standing to challenge it. The program itself is novel and complicated, and allowing it to go forward may be of no particular moment. But by closing the courthouse door to some kinds of suits that claim violations of the First Amendment’s ban on government establishment of religion,...

(This is the latest entry in the Elephant Dung Series over at my blog. For an explanation of this ongoing series, tracking the GOP civil war, see here. For previous entries, see here.) I wrote last year about “Mainesanity,” the takeover of Maine’s state GOP by Tea Party wackos. And by that I don’t mean your run-of-the-mill small-government Teabaggers, the sort who are extreme but not utterly insane, or not necessarily so, but rather… well, wackos. As Maine Politics...

(This is the latest entry in the Elephant Dung Series over at my blog. For an explanation of this ongoing series, tracking the GOP civil war, see here. For previous entries, see here.) Jon Chait had a post the other day arguing that John Boehner has no choice, if he knows what’s good for him, but to shut down the government. Basically, Boehner is in a tough spot. (No, don’t feel sorry for him. It’s what he gets for being where he is.) He has to try to appeal to independents and...

I think it’s great that Michele Bachmann’s running for president. I really do. She’s so good for the GOP, so much a voice of the conservatism of today. Without her in the race, well, it just wouldn’t make sense. Okay, she’s not officially running yet, she’s just planning on setting up one of those exploratory committees. But come on, you know she wants it, and she’s got God behind her, so it looks like a done deal. Oh, you think she’s a joke, do you?...

Please do me a favour — and, more importantly, a favour for academic research. I was contacted recently by a team of researchers at Appalachian State University in North Carolina that is currently studying the role of emotions in politics. They’re conducting a survey that they hope will help them with their research. I can’t take the survey myself, as I’m not a U.S. resident, but they tell me it only takes a couple of minutes. Their work looks extremely interesting and I’m...

I’m still on the fence over the intervention in Libya, though I’m leaning more towards support than opposition. (Yes, I’m still something of a liberal interventionist, despite Iraq, despite Afghanistan.) Well, maybe. It depends. (The humanitarian objectives are noble, but I just can’t see how this plays out well.) But I genuinely feel for Obama, who finds himself in a no-win situation politically — unless everything breaks perfectly, which is highly unlikely. He’s...

Rick Santorum may or may not be insane, but he certainly doesn’t know anything about history: Rick Santorum launched into a scathing attack on the left, charging during an appearance in South Carolina that the history of the Crusades has been corrupted by “the American left who hates Christendom.” “The idea that the Crusades and the fight of Christendom against Islam is somehow an aggression on our part is absolutely anti-historical,” Santorum said in Spartanburg on...

A couple of weeks ago, my friend R.K. Barry wrote an Elephant Dung post on how the Indiana Tea Party is going after long-time and highly-respected Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, planning a 2012 challenge that could ultimately bring down one of the few remaining sensible Republicans on Capitol Hill. Well, it ain’t lookin’ good for Lugar: Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock will launch his primary challenge to Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) on Tuesday with the support of a majority of...

Yes, yes, Palin keeps hinting at a possible presidential run, but that’s all there ever is, a hint here and hint there, as if she’s just trying to keep the speculation going, and I remain convinced, or almost convinced, that she won’t end up running, not with so much at stake, not with so much to lose, including her status as Tea Party shadchan and party kingmaker. But, honestly, attacking Michelle Obama for promoting breast-feeding? Sarah Palin followed in Rep. Michele Bachmann’s...

This is another entry in my Elephant Dung series, tracking the GOP civil war. For an explanation of the series, see here. For previous entries, see here. ********** Michael Medved, the former (highly mediocre, if not worse) movie critic turned conservative talk-radio host spends much of his op-ed in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal criticizing the right’s anti-Obama nonsense, essentially speaking truth to Republican power. He actually defends the president against “some of the...

As we get closer and closer to 2012, more and more Republicans seem to be taking shots at one another, mostly subtle jabs meant to knock an opponent, or potential opponent, down a notch or two, as well as to reinforce one’s own partisan, ideological bona fides. Take this, for example: Rick Santorum knocked Sarah Palin’s decision to skip CPAC, saying on Tuesday that she must have “business opportunities” that are keeping her from the annual conservative conference that is a...