Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s PUK is suggesting that the Kurds may drop the demand that eventual independence be addressed in the constitution, something that’s opposed by both Shi’ite and Sunni lawmakers. The Shi’a want some sort of handle on Kurdish oil wealth, depending on where Kirkuk ends up falling. Eventual independence would also destabilize the region and make Iran more than a bit antsy. It’s no surprise that the Sunni who are anti-federalism are also anti-Kurdish...

So, is he really dead this time?: Saudi security forces have killed a man in Medina they said was the leader of al Qaeda on the Arab Peninsula, an interior ministry official told CNN. The man identified as Saleh Al Oufi was on a Saudi list of 26 most wanted people. The Saudis have since issued a new list with 36 names, but Oufi’s death on Thursday would leave one person on the original list still free. In a statement, a senior official at the Interior Ministry said security forces launched...

Moscow is certainly whoring itself out recently, as evidenced by the final paragraph in this Taipei Times article (via DTR): Next month, Russian and Indian troops will also hold their first joint maneuvers against potential threats by militants on land and sea in Rajasthan in northwestern India and in the Indian Ocean. Pakistan test fires a cruise missile without warning India right before a ban on such non-reported activity goes into effect, and then India readies itself for a war game next door...

Cross-posted from Digial Dissent I derive a certain amount of satisfaction from this: Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said on Friday he was astonished at the unanimity of a call by the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog for Iran to halt enrichment activities, calling it a cruel decision. In a resolution on Thursday, the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unanimously asked Iran to resume suspension of all nuclear fuel related activities and asked the agency...

Via Laura Rozen, the Badr Brigades have taken over Baghdad’s mayor’s office according to the NYtimes. The Brigades are the SCIRI’s armed militia and are directly backed by Iran (trained and funded), so to say this is a major development is more than an understatement: The deposed mayor, Alaa al-Tamimi, who was not in his offices at the time, recounted the events in a telephone interview on Tuesday and called the move a municipal coup d’état. He added that he had gone into...

Iran has announced the resumption of its uranium enrichment program, so, of course, discourse now turns toward the possibility for UN-imposed economic sanctions. Most debate over this centers on possible problems stemming from China and Russia, but there’s another group of countries to take into account: the developing countries on the IAEA Board of Governors.

Some more details are emerging on the Iraqi constitution, via the International Herald Tribune. The portion of the article that is getting the most attention is that language on Islam’s role has been changed somewhat. Instead of Islam being the “major” source of legislation, it’s now the “main” source of legislation. I don’t see a huge difference there, even if the IHT article trumpets it as an important compromise between Sunni, Shi’ite, and Kurdish...

In a move long expected, numbers of Kurds are returning to Kirkuk years after being displaced by Saddam Hussein. It’s an obvious effort to consolidate influence in the region before the unveiling of the proposed permanent Iraqi constitution which will most likely make way for Kurdish autonomy. Still, the question remains whether or not the final draft of the constitution will include an ammendment on future Kurdish independence, AKA the formal creation of Kurdistan. Some Kurds have demanded...

A commonly held belief is that Syria, despite its claims to the contrary, is aiding the Iraqi insurgency by allowing safe passage for jihadists through its territory and across its borders. I’ve taken the idea to task before, so it’s not surprising that I disagree with such claims. A new Jamestown Foundation article, which utilizes a Syrian jihadist’s web posting complaining of tough conditions within Syria, also suggests that Bashar Assad’s regime is, in no way, actively...

What does the Bush administration’s proposal for civil nuclear cooperation with India mean? A number of headaches in the near term, it seems, even if the long term military goals of containing China make sense.

Cross-posted to Digital Dissent I’d say, “fat chance”, but I’m willing to give him a shot. From CNN: Kim said “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was the behest of President Kim Il Sung,” his late father and the North’s longtime former leader, the North’s Korean Central News Agency reported on Wednesday. According to the report, the reclusive leader said it was Pyongyang’s “consistent stand to seek a negotiated peaceful solution...

Six-party talks are finally set to resume on North Korea’s nuclear program on July 25th in Beijing. Looks like it took some verbal backstepping on behalf of the US, but in the end it was worth it (and it’s also known as “diplomacy”, not exactly a bad word and preferable to nuclear-armed combat): The top envoys to the negotiations from the United States and North Korea — U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye...

A movement for autonomy in the primarily Shi’ite southern provinces of Iraq is growing in popularity and momentum. The emerging issue may have lasting effects on the Iraqi National Assembly’s attempts to forge a constitution and pass it without a single provincial veto. Full federalization of the Iraqi government, one of the United States’ initial goals under the Coalition Provisional Authority, is looking more like a possibility. However, there are fears that religious Shi’a,...

The New York Times is reporting that Shi’ite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is suggesting Iraq’s new constitution allow for proportional parliamentary representation. In effect, this would guarantee Iraq’s Sunni population a set number of seats regardless of voter turnout in the next election. The only issue is that the Kurds, who are concerned over oil-rich Kirkuk and their future autonomy, may view the deal as a threat. I look at the numbers and explain why, which is important...

Iran undertook its presidential election yesterday, resulting in extremely high turnout. The results? A run-off, the first ever in Iran’s history, is set for next Friday between former two-term president Hashemi Rafsanjani and ultra conservative Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. I cover exactly what this all means for Iran as well as future nuclear negotiations at Digital Dissent. In short, you thought negotiations were heated before? Hah.

Yes, Iran, not Iraq, has been rocked by five bomb blasts today, with nine people reported dead. From CBC News: There is no explanation for the attacks, but an Iranian official suggested the bombs were linked to the presidential elections set for Friday. Former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pragmatic conservative, is expected to win, beating a group of mainly religious hardliners. Bombings are unusual in Iran. The attacks were the most serious in more than 10 years. Eight people died when...

Matt (at his swank new digs) points to this Democracy Arsenal post which, in turn, references a new survey on US public support for humanitarian intervention in Darfur. It seems that the American public is, overall, supportive of an increased US role in clamping down on genocide in Sudan. The conversation that has developed from this, thanks to Matt, is whether or not public opinion itself is really what’s behind the US’s notorious aversion to stepping into humanitarian crises. Here’s...

The Bolton confirmation fight has now reached the Senate floor. While it doesn’t look overly probable, the anti-diplomat’s confirmation can still be thwarted. Public opinion can help push those senators on the fence to the side of reason and Rockefeller, who’s up now (from what I hear, unfortunately I’m deprived of C-SPAN 2), can drop some hefty information on the chamber if he so wishes. Contacting your senator on this before the final vote is essential. I recently finished...

There’s been a good deal of drama surrounding Iran over the last couple days. To begin with, the country’s Guardian Council barred reformists from running in the upcoming presidential election. Then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, possibly fearing a widespread electoral boycott and protests, ordered the Guardian Council to reconsider letting the top two reformist candidates run. Finally, the Guardian Council backed away from its initial ruling and is now allowing Mostafa Moin...

Thousands of Iraqi Sunni leaders have gathered in an effort to form a true opposition to the fundamentalist Shi’ite regime and affect the formation of Iraq’s new constitution. I take a look at the particulars — it seems some guarded optimism may be due.

Hamas, after a meeting with the Palestinian Authority, has decided to stop firing mortars and rockets into Israel, something it had been doing since Wednesday. There’s speculation that the violence was nothing more than a Hamas attempt to show exactly how powerless Abbas is in controlling the peace process and the overall security situation, and in that regard it was completely successful. Sure, Fatah asked Hamas to stop being naughty, and Hamas has complied, but that does not mean it will...

This is the right idea: America’s first lady said women already have achieved extraordinary gains in the Middle East and that change must come to any nation that wants to be considered truly free. “Women who have not yet won these rights are watching,” she said at the World Economic Forum conference on the Middle East. “They are calling on the conscience of their countrymen, making it clear that if the right to vote is to have any meaning, it cannot be limited only to men.” … “Freedom,...

Muqtada al-Sadr continues to be influential from well outside the Iraqi political structure. After American troops imprisoned 13 of his associates in a recent raid, Sadr called for massive demonstrations against the American occupation and his supporters have responded: The protests, which drew an estimated total of 6,000 demonstrators in the three cities, followed radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s call Wednesday to reject the U.S. occupation of Iraq by painting Israeli and American flags on...

One would think the Shi’ite-dominated Iraqi government would primarily be concerned with stabilizing the country’s abhorrent security situation, or, perhaps, writing a new constitution. Alas, this is not the case, at least according to Iraqi President Jalal Talabani: he claims that Iraq’s number one priority is strengthening the country’s ties to Iran.

Iran simply can’t make up its mind it seems: One of the diplomats told The Associated Press that Iranian government officials in Tehran were discussing maintaining their freeze on uranium conversion because of a warning from key European countries that such a move would result in “consequences … that would only be negative for Iran” — diplomatic code for likely action by the U.N Security Council. In Tehran, Hasan Rowhani, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, appeared...