07/24/2008 Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato on THE MYTH OF A TOSS-UP ELECTION “Too close to call.” “Within the margin of error.” “A statistical dead heat.” If you’ve been following news coverage of the 2008 presidential election, you’re probably familiar with these phrases. Media commentary on the presidential horserace, reflecting the results of a series of new national polls, has strained to make a case for a hotly contested...

A Look Inside An Israeli Daniel Gordis: Dispatches from an Anxious State 18 July 2008: When Mistakes Are Worth Making For some strange reason, I remember the scene with clarity. I was in the kitchen, early on a Friday afternoon about a month ago, cooking Shabbat dinner. Micha, our youngest, now 15, was hanging out in the living room. The radio was on in the background, and on the hour, the news came on. It was over in minutes, and then the music returned. I hadn’t really paid attention to the news,...

AP via MSNBC: Phil Gramm, a top adviser to presidential candidate John McCain, said Friday he is resigning from the role as campaign co-chairman after his comments that the United States had become a “nation of whiners” who constantly complain about the state of the economy.

07/17/2008 Rhodes Cook on A NEW ELECTORATE IN THE MAKING? Speculation abounds these days about whether this fall’s presidential election will produce a dramatically different electoral map than the virtually static one of the last two contests. Will Colorado and Virginia lead an array of longtime Republican states that might be won this time by Democrat Barack Obama? Or might Michigan and Pennsylvania be in the vanguard of Democratic strongholds picked off by Republican John McCain? Those...

07/17/2008 Alan I. Abramowitz on DOES OBAMA HAVE A PROBLEM WITH WHITE VOTERS? “Poll Finds Obama’s Run Isn’t Closing Divide on Race,” reads the headline on the front page of the July 16th New York Times. The article beneath the headline observes that despite Barack Obama’s candidacy, the results of a new CBS/New York Times Poll show that American society is still deeply divided along racial lines. Blacks and whites continue to hold divergent views about the state of...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is the last of many make-up posts. 06/19/2008 Alan I. Abramowitz on THE ELECTORAL BAROMETER VS. THE POLLS A question that keeps arising in connection with this year’s presidential race is why, given the extremely favorable political environment for Democrats, Barack Obama has not been able to establish a clear lead over John McCain in national polls. Based on President Bush’s extraordinarily low approval...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts. 06/05/2008 Justin Sizemore’s HOW OBAMA DID IT: Big states, small states, caucuses and campaign strategy Shortly before ten o’clock on the evening February 1, 2008, Barack Obama’s chartered 737 took off from Albuquerque International Airport bound for Boise, Idaho, where the Illinois senator was scheduled to hold a rally the next day. In just four days voters in...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts. 05/29/2008 Rhodes Cook’s THE “CONTROVERSIAL” CAUCUSES: An Outsized Influence in 2008 Maybe one of the most intriguing – and nefarious – aspects of this long-running Democratic presidential campaign is that the legitimacy of the system itself has come into question. Doubts, to be sure, have been raised about the role of the unelected “superdelegates”. But...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts. 05/29/2008 Alan I. Abramowitz’s CAN MCCAIN OVERCOME THE TRIPLE WHAMMY? Electoral Barometer Shows Democratic Advantage With the long and contentious Democratic nomination race finally winding down, the attention of the media and the public is beginning to shift to the general election. In November, voters will face a choice between two rather atypical presidential candidates....

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts. 05/15/2008 Rhodes Cook’s OBAMA’S NEXT CHALLENGE: Turning Primary Losses Into Electoral Votes As Barack Obama prepares to move from the primary to the general election phase of the 2008 presidential election, he faces a new challenge which combines both – to bring many of the states where he suffered primary losses this winter and spring into the Democratic column...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts. 05/15/2008 Alan I. Abramowitz on THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S (OR MOTHER’S) DEMOCRATIC PARTY: The White Working Class, Democrats and the 2008 Election Forget about soccer moms and NASCAR dads. The key voting bloc in 2008 is the white working class. According to the new conventional wisdom of American politics, the presidential candidate who can win the support of white working...

BBC: US Suffers Heavy Afghan Losses Nine US soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan in clashes with Taleban militants. US commander Daniel Dwyer told the BBC the soldiers had been killed in clashes in the north-east of the country. The BBC’s Martin Patience in Kabul says it is one of the biggest single losses in a day for the coalition since the start of military operations there. The attack came as international and Afghan security forces battled militants on several fronts. On Sunday,...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts. 06/19/2008 Larry J. Sabato on SENATE SENSIBILITIES – The Update: The ‘08 battles for the U.S. Senate Lots of exciting changes have occurred in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in December 2007. Yet overall, the outlook hasn’t changed much. Democrats will pick up seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats,...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts. 06/12/2008 Larry J. Sabato on CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT, CONTINUED: 2008 contests for the U.S. House – June update Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year. Nothing has changed our forecast in the six months since, and if anything, we now see November 2008 as probably the best year Democrats...

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of several make-up posts. 06/12/2008 Rhodes Cook’s PRIMARY CONCERNS: McCain, Obama have some base building to do For the first time in 40 years, the Democrats and Republicans are each on the verge of nominating a candidate who failed to attract even half of their party’s primary vote. Counting fully sanctioned, half sanctioned, and non-binding primaries, Barack Obama took 47 percent of this...

Have we come to THIS? Sports Illustrated: Presidential candidate Obama to sponsor Cup car at Pocono race SI.com has learned that for the first time in history, a major presidential candidate may sponsor a race car in NASCAR’s premier series. According to sources, Barack Obama’s campaign is in talks to become the primary sponsor of BAM Racing’s No. 49 Sprint Cup car for the Pocono race on August 3. Details of the agreement are expected to be worked out over the coming days. A BAM...

Three new articles from Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Alan I. Abramowitz: Is Time on John McCain’s Side? The Nomination Gap and the 2008 Presidential Election Larry J. Sabato: TIME TO CHANGE THE UNIT RULE – And avoid a potential electoral calamity Larry J. Sabato: THE MAP – The Crystal Ball’s First Look at November’s Electoral College

LISTEN to The Capitol Steps on-line [or on your local NPR affiliate]: This year’s and last year’s Fourth of July broadcasts are available for download here in RealAudio format. Fourth of July 2008 Edition: Politics Takes A Holiday! NEW Recorded live at the Ronald Reagan Building in DC. (One half hour: 4.5 MB) RealAudio/RA Fourth of July 2007 Edition: Politics Takes A Holiday! Recorded live at the Ronald Reagan Building in DC. (One half hour: 4.5 MB) RealAudio/RA

MSNBC: Former Republican Senator Jesse Helms dies at 86

An East Jerusalem Palestinian hijacked a bulldozer today and began attacking buses, cars and the people in them. A few people were killed and around 60 were wounded. Fortunately, the terrorist was quickly killed. Jerusalem Post: Bulldozer driver shot dead after going on rampage in capital Jerusalem Post: ‘Israel must demolish terrorist’s house’ Jerusalem Post: We acted precisely as we were taught David Horovitz: Another attack from ‘within’ InfoLiveTV Ynet News: 3...

I apologize, it appears that I have missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is today’s article – I will post the others as I have time to read them. Today’s article is by Michael Baudinet of the U.Va. Center for Politics: Time Is On My Side: The Nomination Gap Much has been made in the past of presidential candidates’ campaign theme songs, but there would be no more appropriate choice for this year’s Republican nominee,...

MSNBC: DES MOINES, Iowa – The rising Cedar River burst through an earthen levee Thursday just outside Cedar Rapids, and at least 10,000 people there have been ordered to evacuate, officials told NBC News. Power is out for most of downtown, complicating rescue efforts, city spokesman Dave Koch said. Cedar Rapids firemen have been organizing boat rescues of stranded residents, Koch added. The new evacuations follow a 150-foot breach early Thursday in an earthen levee.

New York Times Blog The Rail: 6:37 Kent Desormeaux says Big Brown was keen early and stumbled a bit. In the end, he said, “I had no horse.” Asked what went wrong? He says “I have no idea.” Dutrow is silent. Tells reporters to leave him alone. 6:35 Is there something wrong with Big Brown? 6:33 Da’ Tara! 6:32 BB in position. 6:31 Da’ Tara sets pace. 6:30 And they’re off!

Breaking News Alert The New York Times Wednesday, June 4, 2008 — 7:03 PM ET —– Clinton Will Suspend Campaign on Friday, Adviser Says Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is moving to suspend her campaign and endorse Senator Barack Obama on Friday after Democratic members of Congress urged her Wednesday to leave the race and allow the party to coalesce around Mr. Obama, according to a senior adviser to Mrs. Clinton. Read More

msnbc.com – BREAKING NEWS: Clinton tells N.Y. lawmakers she’s open to being Obama’s VP candidate WASHINGTON – Hillary Clinton has told congressional colleagues she would be open to becoming Barack Obama’s vice presidential nominee, saying she would consider it if it would help Democrats win the White House. Clinton, a New York senator, made the comment on a conference call with other New York lawmakers Tuesday, according a participant on the call. The senator’s...