Larry J. Sabato on THE HONEYMOON BEGINS: Questions and Answers About Obama’s First Year Almost every American recognizes January 20, 2009 as a red-letter date in U.S. history. No one who witnessed the swearing-in of President Barack Obama will ever forget it, and rarely has so much emotion been wrapped up in an inauguration. The good feelings that have been generated cannot hurt at a time when the country faces a deep recession and other significant challenges. The uplifting part is over....

Larry J. Sabato on The 2008 Election in Perspective: Just What We Would Have Expected The following is an excerpt from the forthcoming book, The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House. The book, which features several frequent Crystal Ball contributors as well as other journalists and scholars, will be published by Pearson Longman in March 2009. –The Editors Some readers will be very surprised by our title. The last outcome they would have expected from Election Year 2008 was...

If Jimmy Carter lived in Sderot or anywhere else in range of missiles from Gaza, he would not have written the ignorant and naive op-ed linked below. Please, Jimmy, stop being manipulated by terrorists and go plant a garden or something. Jimmy Carter / Washington Post: An Unnecessary War Shmuel Rosner of the Jerusalem Post commented: “One thing I can say for sure: the Israeli establishment is generally confident that Clinton will be a friend – and not the kind of friend Carter pretends...

AP via MSNBC: Job losses rise in Dec., unemployment 7.2 pct.; December figures cap a year featuring job losses every month Trying to survive a deepening recession, employers are cutting their work forces to the bone, leaving more Americans unemployed and with dim prospects of finding a new job any time soon. The Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate rose to 7.2 percent in December and payrolls dropped by 524,000 jobs, capping a year when job losses were logged every month and presaging...

Larry J. Sabato on INAUGURATIONS PAST AND PRESENT – How Will Obama Measure Up? Rituals matter in any society, but in a democracy they are especially significant. Most authoritarian regimes are stable for long periods of time; the barrel of a gun ensures it. Democratic societies can change rapidly with public opinion, and a new administration is frequently the polar opposite of its predecessor. How best to balance the need for change with the assurance of continuity? Ceremony. Of all our national...

UPDATE: The Israeli military said it was looking into the reports. The military denied having attacked the school, as Palestinians claimed, and was probing to find out the source of the explosion. —————————————————————————– Jerusalem Post: IAF targets UN-run school; Palestinians: At least 10 killed I’m going to make some guesses, we’ll...

Bill Richardson has withdrawn his nomination as President-Elect Obama’s Secretary of Commerce due to an ongoing investigation of his business dealings.

It has become necessary for the IDF to temporarily enter Gaza. Keep in mind that the IDF includes Jewish, Christian, Muslim and Druze soldiers, both male and female, working together to protect the citizens of the State of Israel. My hope is that Hamas is destroyed and Gilad Shalit is rescued. Jerusalem Post: Soldiers exchange fire with Hamas gunmen inside Strip For the first time since the start of Operation Cast Lead, IDF ground troops entered the Gaza Strip on Saturday evening, exchanging fire...

Listen to the Show! New Year’s Eve 2008 Edition: Politics Takes A Holiday! Recorded live at the Ronald Reagan Building in DC. (One hour: 9 MB)

On behalf of my fellow bloggers here at The Moderate Voice, we humbly thank you, our readers, for nominating us for the 2008 Weblog Awards. We are a finalist for Best Major Blog (Authority over 1001). The category looks like this: Best Major Blog (Authority over 1001) Outside the Beltway Dark Roasted Blend cjane enjoy it The Moderate Voice PostSecret Autoblog /film Instapundit TBogg Balloon Juice We did not campaign for this but appreciate our fans nonetheless! Why Thanks Folks! We’re grateful...

Samuel the Cat has gone to Critter Heaven after 17 years of purring in my lap. He was the last of the Fur Family, the 3 critters who moved to Cincinnati with me 8 years ago. Here is a photo of Samuel in March 2008:

Jerusalem Post: ‘Hamas: Over 170 killed as Israel strikes police compounds’ The Palestinians would be far better off if all members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad dropped dead.

GWB is speaking right now on NPR, C-SPAN and other venues, bailing out all 3 American automakers. Washington Post: Bush Announces Emergency Loans to Big 3

Here is a simple way for Barack Obama to ameliorate criticism from my more impetuous friends: Invite openly-gay Episcopal Bishop Gene Robinson to give a blessing as well.

Larry J. Sabato on THAT WAS THE YEAR THAT WAS: 2008 in Perspective We have reached the end of another election cycle, but this has been no ordinary campaign. The marathon of presidential politics was everyone’s focus, and the unforgettable cast of characters was long, from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side to John McCain and Sarah Palin on the Republican. These people were fascinating, but events were in the saddle. * The economy melted down into the slag of near-depression....

BBC: In the middle of the news conference with Mr Maliki, a reporter stood up and shouted “this is a goodbye kiss from the Iraqi people, dog,” before hurtling his shoes at Mr Bush, narrowly missing him. “All I can report is a size 10,” Mr Bush said according to the Associated Press news agency. BBC VIDEO

According to Haaretz, the Obama Administration will provide a “nuclear umbrella” to protect Israel: U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s administration will offer Israel a “nuclear umbrella” against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, a well-placed American source said earlier this week. The source, who is close to the new administration, said the U.S. will declare that an attack on Israel by Tehran would result in a devastating U.S. nuclear response against Iran....

Larry J. Sabato on CORRUPTION MOST FOUL: Revisiting the Timeless Principles of Corruption in Politics After reading the federal criminal complaint filed against the Illinois governor this past Tuesday we at The Crystal Ball could think only one thing: Willie Stark, meet Rod Blagojevich. Of course the governor is innocent until proven guilty, but the indictment is thick, well sourced, and very, very specific. Of Illinois’ immediate past eight governors, Blagojevich would be the fourth sent...

With a hat-tip to NPR and MSNBC, I have gone to the Chicago Tribune’s website: Source: Feds take Gov. Blagojevich into custody A source said today that Gov. Rod Blagojevich was taken into federal custody at his North Side home this morning. The U.S. attorney’s office would not confirm the information. A Blagojevich spokesman said he was unaware of the development. “Haven’t heard anything — you are first to call,” Lucio Guerrero said in an e-mail. The stunning,...

MSNBC: O.J. Simpson has been sentenced to 15 years in prison. CNN: O.J. Simpson gets at least 15 years in prison A Las Vegas judge sentenced fallen gridiron great O.J. Simpson to at least 15 years in prison for leading an armed hotel room confrontation over sports memorabilia in 2007. A pre-sentencing report recommends an 18-year prison term for O.J. Simpson, 61. Simpson could become eligible for parole in about nine years. Grimacing, his head cast down, Simpson was escorted from the courtroom...

Larry J. Sabato on THE ELECTION WITHOUT END: Senate Aftermath of 2008 Continues Decades ago, a merry band of pranksters took to the streets of a state’s capital city a few days after an election for governor. Riding in the van of a defeated candidate, the vehicle still much decorated with the slogans and banners of the electorally deceased nominee, the newly unemployed campaign workers took turns on the public address system, exhorting passersby to remember to vote. Startled looks were the...

I’m listening to it on NPR – right now Joe Biden is speaking: LISTEN LIVE | Obama Names Hillary Clinton Sec. Of State The president-elect announces his national security team: Senator Hillary Clinton Sec. of State, Defense Sec. Robert Gates, Eric Holder Attorney General, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano Sec. of Dept. of Homeland Security, Susan Rice Ambassador to the United Nations and General Jim Jones, National Security Adviser.

Times of India: Deccan Mujahideen email threatens Delhi According to police sources, Deccan Mujahideen has warned of a repeat of Mumbai terror attack at Indira Gandhi International Airport and three railway stations. Times of India: 3 RDX bombs found around Taj and Trident The scope of the terror attack on Mumbai was much wider, The Times of India has reliably learnt. The neighbourhood around the Taj would have been blown to smithereens if two RDX bombs fitted with timers had gone off. A third bomb...

Times of India: Mumbai locals helped us, terrorist tells cops Did some Mumbai locals provide support to the Pakistani terrorists? Azam Amir Kasab, the only Pakistani terrorist nabbed alive, has revealed names and addresses of at least five people from the city who helped the terror operation. Sources said that help like, providing shelter, taking them around and showing places, passing information on police stations and nakabandhis were given by these locals. Joint commissioner of police (crime)...

Washington Post: Investigation Underway as Assault in Mumbai Ends “Their plan was to kill 5,000 people, we recovered two big bombs, other than guns,” said R. R. Patil, Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister. “They were using mobile phones, GPS and satellite phones. We have many clues from these.” [snip] Indian intelligence officials said the gunmen who launched the coordinated attacks appeared well trained and well prepared. The assailants seemed familiar with the layouts...