Alan Abramowitz on Did the Wall Street Meltdown Change the Election? A Reply to James Campbell According to James Campbell, the mid-September financial crisis hit the 2008 presidential election like a bolt out of the blue, transforming it from a horserace in which John McCain had a real chance of victory into a one-sided contest in which Barack Obama enjoyed a decisive advantage. Campbell’s claim is another version of the Wall Street meltdown theory that has been advanced by a number of conservative...

MSNBC announced that Tom Daschle has withdrawn his nomination for HHS Secretary. An analysis from earlier today about how Killefer’s problems hurt Daschle: The Fix: How Killefer Hurts Daschle

Nancy Killefer, Chief Performance Officer Designate

James E. Campbell on The 2008 Election in Perspective: The Unexpected Wall Street Meltdown Election Some political analysts have interpreted the 2008 presidential election as an ordinary retrospective election. With a very unpopular Republican incumbent presiding over unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a weak economy, 2008 appeared to be a Democratic year. As the often insightful Larry Sabato put it in his recent essay, “any mainstream Democratic candidate was destined to win in 2008.”...

Rhodes Cook on THE GEORGIA SENATE RUNOFF: THE FIRST SHOT OF 2010? The 2008 election these days may seem long ago and far away. But it is worth remembering that while the Republicans had a bad time at the polls in November, they fared well in the array of contests that concluded the election cycle in December. The GOP scored two House wins last month in Louisiana, including the improbable upset of Democrat William Jefferson by a little-known Republican, Anh Cao. The latter became the first Vietnamese-American...

Chicago Tribune’s Clout Street Blog: Senate removes Blagojevich from office 5:02 p.m. Quinn takes charge Gov. Patrick Quinn has signed the oath of office. He did so in his lieutenant governor’s office as Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias watched. A member of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s security detail entered Quinn’s office and is standing guard, as are other state police officers, following the vote. During the vote, Quinn could be seen walking back and forth. 5:01 p.m....

A month or so back I attended a lecture presented in Cincinnati by Ismail Khaldi, a Bedouin shepherd boy and Sunni Muslim from the Galilee who is now an Israeli diplomat. He currently serves as the State of Israel’s deputy consul general in San Francisco. An interesting speaker, he shared his life story with us. Now I see his name in the news: Druze, Bedouin diplomats wage PR war: Reda Mansour, Ismail Khaldi defend Gaza op to CNN, Berkley faculty, and Muslim protestors in US A Druze ambassador...

Larry J. Sabato on THE HONEYMOON BEGINS: Questions and Answers About Obama’s First Year Almost every American recognizes January 20, 2009 as a red-letter date in U.S. history. No one who witnessed the swearing-in of President Barack Obama will ever forget it, and rarely has so much emotion been wrapped up in an inauguration. The good feelings that have been generated cannot hurt at a time when the country faces a deep recession and other significant challenges. The uplifting part is over....

Larry J. Sabato on The 2008 Election in Perspective: Just What We Would Have Expected The following is an excerpt from the forthcoming book, The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House. The book, which features several frequent Crystal Ball contributors as well as other journalists and scholars, will be published by Pearson Longman in March 2009. –The Editors Some readers will be very surprised by our title. The last outcome they would have expected from Election Year 2008 was...

If Jimmy Carter lived in Sderot or anywhere else in range of missiles from Gaza, he would not have written the ignorant and naive op-ed linked below. Please, Jimmy, stop being manipulated by terrorists and go plant a garden or something. Jimmy Carter / Washington Post: An Unnecessary War Shmuel Rosner of the Jerusalem Post commented: “One thing I can say for sure: the Israeli establishment is generally confident that Clinton will be a friend – and not the kind of friend Carter pretends...

AP via MSNBC: Job losses rise in Dec., unemployment 7.2 pct.; December figures cap a year featuring job losses every month Trying to survive a deepening recession, employers are cutting their work forces to the bone, leaving more Americans unemployed and with dim prospects of finding a new job any time soon. The Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate rose to 7.2 percent in December and payrolls dropped by 524,000 jobs, capping a year when job losses were logged every month and presaging...

Larry J. Sabato on INAUGURATIONS PAST AND PRESENT – How Will Obama Measure Up? Rituals matter in any society, but in a democracy they are especially significant. Most authoritarian regimes are stable for long periods of time; the barrel of a gun ensures it. Democratic societies can change rapidly with public opinion, and a new administration is frequently the polar opposite of its predecessor. How best to balance the need for change with the assurance of continuity? Ceremony. Of all our national...

UPDATE: The Israeli military said it was looking into the reports. The military denied having attacked the school, as Palestinians claimed, and was probing to find out the source of the explosion. —————————————————————————– Jerusalem Post: IAF targets UN-run school; Palestinians: At least 10 killed I’m going to make some guesses, we’ll...

Bill Richardson has withdrawn his nomination as President-Elect Obama’s Secretary of Commerce due to an ongoing investigation of his business dealings.

It has become necessary for the IDF to temporarily enter Gaza. Keep in mind that the IDF includes Jewish, Christian, Muslim and Druze soldiers, both male and female, working together to protect the citizens of the State of Israel. My hope is that Hamas is destroyed and Gilad Shalit is rescued. Jerusalem Post: Soldiers exchange fire with Hamas gunmen inside Strip For the first time since the start of Operation Cast Lead, IDF ground troops entered the Gaza Strip on Saturday evening, exchanging fire...

Listen to the Show! New Year’s Eve 2008 Edition: Politics Takes A Holiday! Recorded live at the Ronald Reagan Building in DC. (One hour: 9 MB)

On behalf of my fellow bloggers here at The Moderate Voice, we humbly thank you, our readers, for nominating us for the 2008 Weblog Awards. We are a finalist for Best Major Blog (Authority over 1001). The category looks like this: Best Major Blog (Authority over 1001) Outside the Beltway Dark Roasted Blend cjane enjoy it The Moderate Voice PostSecret Autoblog /film Instapundit TBogg Balloon Juice We did not campaign for this but appreciate our fans nonetheless! Why Thanks Folks! We’re grateful...

Samuel the Cat has gone to Critter Heaven after 17 years of purring in my lap. He was the last of the Fur Family, the 3 critters who moved to Cincinnati with me 8 years ago. Here is a photo of Samuel in March 2008:

Jerusalem Post: ‘Hamas: Over 170 killed as Israel strikes police compounds’ The Palestinians would be far better off if all members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad dropped dead.

GWB is speaking right now on NPR, C-SPAN and other venues, bailing out all 3 American automakers. Washington Post: Bush Announces Emergency Loans to Big 3

Here is a simple way for Barack Obama to ameliorate criticism from my more impetuous friends: Invite openly-gay Episcopal Bishop Gene Robinson to give a blessing as well.

Larry J. Sabato on THAT WAS THE YEAR THAT WAS: 2008 in Perspective We have reached the end of another election cycle, but this has been no ordinary campaign. The marathon of presidential politics was everyone’s focus, and the unforgettable cast of characters was long, from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side to John McCain and Sarah Palin on the Republican. These people were fascinating, but events were in the saddle. * The economy melted down into the slag of near-depression....

BBC: In the middle of the news conference with Mr Maliki, a reporter stood up and shouted “this is a goodbye kiss from the Iraqi people, dog,” before hurtling his shoes at Mr Bush, narrowly missing him. “All I can report is a size 10,” Mr Bush said according to the Associated Press news agency. BBC VIDEO

According to Haaretz, the Obama Administration will provide a “nuclear umbrella” to protect Israel: U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s administration will offer Israel a “nuclear umbrella” against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, a well-placed American source said earlier this week. The source, who is close to the new administration, said the U.S. will declare that an attack on Israel by Tehran would result in a devastating U.S. nuclear response against Iran....

Larry J. Sabato on CORRUPTION MOST FOUL: Revisiting the Timeless Principles of Corruption in Politics After reading the federal criminal complaint filed against the Illinois governor this past Tuesday we at The Crystal Ball could think only one thing: Willie Stark, meet Rod Blagojevich. Of course the governor is innocent until proven guilty, but the indictment is thick, well sourced, and very, very specific. Of Illinois’ immediate past eight governors, Blagojevich would be the fourth sent...