Rhodes Cook on FOR GOP’S SAKE, TEXAS BETTER NOT SECEDE Of all the jaw-dropping comments made by politicians this year, the one that takes top prize was not uttered in the nation’s capital but deep in the heart of Texas. There, in conjunction with a tax day “tea party,” Republican Gov. Rick Perry floated the idea of his huge state along the Mexican border seceding from the Union. As explanation, Perry declared that “we’ve got a great Union. There’s absolutely...

Larry J. Sabato, Isaac Wood, and Paul Wiley on HOT HOUSE 2010: The Upcoming Contests for the U.S. House of Representatives We are barely into the two-year term for the current House of Representatives, but you can be sure that the 2010 contests have already begun. That is especially true for members of the House who are in two-party competitive districts. For them, it is a permanent campaign. Relatively few incumbents have challengers out-and-about already. So unlike our recent profiles of 2010...

In a decision which will draw fire from all sides, the California Supreme Court has chosen to split the baby. Unlike King Solomon’s challenge to the two prostitutes [1 Kings 3:16-28], this choice is not courageous and may not even be wise. msnbc.com BREAKING NEWS: Calif. high court upholds gay marriage ban but allows existing marriages to stand See earlier post by Joe Windish.

Obama’s choice is rumored to be Sonia Sotomayor. I’m hearing this from MSNBC, NPR, and the New York Times — attributed to the AP. More at Politico. UPDATE FROM NBC NEWS: First thoughts: It’s Sotomayor Posted: Tuesday, May 26, 2009 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro Filed Under: First Thoughts From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** It’s Sotomayor: At 10:15 am ET from the White House’s East Room, President Obama will again make history by nominating the first...

Larry J. Sabato on PRESIDENCY 2012: THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY BEGINS We at the Crystal Ball must beg your forgiveness. With fewer than 1,300 days left until the next general election for President, we have failed to offer a single analysis of this historic upcoming battle. With humility, and hoping for mercy, we submit this first update on 2012. The start of the nomination battle is even closer, of course. The two major parties are fiddling with their primary and caucus calendars again, probably in...

The Caucus: Military Office Director Resigns An administration official said Friday that Louis Caldera has resigned after he authorized an Air Force One flyover of the Statue of Liberty two weeks ago. Washington Post Reuters: NYC Flyover Cost Over $300,000

For various reasons, I have neglected to post several columns from Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Here they are…. Alan Abramowitz on The Obama Generation 04/30/2009 Joseph Figueroa on New Jersey Governor Showdown 04/30/2009 Diana Owen on High Interest Election, Media Boon 04/23/2009 Isaac Wood on HOUSE RACE SPECIAL: EXTRA INNINGS! 04/23/2009 Alan Abramowitz on Independent Voters and the President: Myths and Realities 04/16/2009 Rhodes Cook on OBAMA AND THE REDEFINITION OF PRESIDENTIAL COATTAILS...

Just saw MSNBC video of David Souter driving his car to work. He is known to be both private and quiet; please stop treating him like a criminal and give him some space.

msnbc.com: BREAKING NEWS: Mexico to shut down nonessential government offices, businesses, reports say

MSNBC-TV Breaking News: WHO Moves to Swine Flu Pandemic Alert Level 5 BBC

AP via MSNBC: BREAKING NEWS: Republican U.S. Senator Arlen Specter in talks to switch parties, sources tell AP Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post: Specter To Switch Parties Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter will switch his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced today that he will run in 2010 as a Democrat, according to a statement he released this morning. Specter’s decision would give Democrats a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the Senate assuming Democrat Al Franken...

MSNBC says that both Reuters and AP are reporting that a major earthquake has rocked Mexico City’s skyscrapers. USGS Earthquake Details Magnitude 6.0 Date-Time Monday, April 27, 2009 at 16:46:31 UTC Monday, April 27, 2009 at 11:46:31 AM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones Location 17.322°N, 99.326°W Depth 41.2 km (25.6 miles) Region GUERRERO, MEXICO Distances 30 km (20 miles) SE of Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico 80 km (50 miles) NE of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico 115 km (70...

CNN: American captain rescued, pirates killed, U.S. official says The captain of the Maersk Alabama was freed Sunday after being held captive since Wednesday by pirates off the coast of Somalia, a senior U.S. official with knowledge of the situation told CNN. The official said Capt. Richard Phillips is uninjured and in good condition, and that three of the four pirates were killed. The fourth pirate is in custody. Phillips was taken aboard the USS Bainbridge, a nearby naval warship.

This should get as much media and blog coverage as the scurrilous war crimes accusations it refutes but it probably won’t…. Jerusalem Post: ‘Isolated vandalism isn’t a war crime’ Operation Cast Lead was completely justified, isolated acts of vandalism do not make the IDF an army of war criminals, and religious graduates of the military preparatory programs add to the morality of the IDF, Danny Zamir, the head of the Rabin Pre-Military Academy in Kiryat Tivon, told The...

Jerusalem Post: Louie Kemp: ‘When Marlon Brando made me a Pessah offer I couldn’t refuse A few weeks ago, as he began preparing material for our Pessah supplements, The Jerusalem Post’s Managing Editor Steve Linde placed a small ad in the paper inviting readers to submit amazing but true Pessah stories. More than 100 flooded in, several of which appear in our April 8 Pessah supplement – and none more wonderful than Minnesota businessman Louie Kemp’s account of his Seder...

I posted yesterday about the Italian Earthquake. Here is an update. BBC: Death toll rises in Italy quake At least 207 people have been killed by Monday’s earthquake in central Italy, with 100 residents critically injured, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi says. He said 150 people had been rescued alive so far, and the operation would continue for a further 48 hours and involve 7,000 rescuers. About 1,000 people were injured and 17,000 were left homeless following the pre-dawn quake in the...

UPDATED AGAIN: BBC: Floodlights are aiding rescuers sifting rubble for signs of life after the devastating Italian earthquake, while thousands face a night in shelters. At least 150 people are dead, dozens missing, 1,500 injured and some 50,000 homeless after the pre-dawn quake struck L’Aquila and its region. Emergency crews have reportedly pulled 60 people alive from the rubble. Survivors are being housed in hotels or a tent city which has been erected in the medieval hill city. Many houses...

Rhodes Cook on CALIFORNIA: THE KEY TO THE ELECTORAL LOCK California may be the Golden State, but it has been a while since people have called it that without a trace of sarcasm. With its double digit unemployment rate, difficult to balance budget, and crumbling infrastructure, California these days is anything but golden. That is, with the exception of its mother lode of electoral votes. Since 1972, California has possessed more than any other state, and is certain to maintain the number one spot...

Sorry, I missed this one when it went up on March 26th. href=”http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=ITW2009032601″>Isaac Wood on House Special Report: Previewing the Three Special Elections on Tap If the November 2008 election was the equivalent of a Democratic tidal wave crashing on the United States, the special elections held earlier that year should have been the early warning system. Before any ballots were cast on November 4, Democrats had already captured...

Part Three of Three of Larry J. Sabato on STATEHOUSE ROCK: 36 Governorships on the Chopping Block in 2010 We’ve had two good weeks of gubernatorial fun in the Crystal Ball, reviewing the early match-ups for the 2010 midterm Governor battles here and here. Now it’s time to examine the remaining sixteen statehouses, all currently controlled by Republicans. MORE

UPDATE: MSNBC says now that it is one gunman and he killed himself. UPDATE: MSNBC says that two men have been led out in handcuffs. Several people shot by gunman in multiple incidents, as many as 40 hostages (some have been released), shooter on the loose with a high-powered rifle. Unconfirmed reports that as many as 13 people may have been killed. MSNBC CNN Video Footage from Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin

I’m listening to it now on one of my local NPR stations. April Fools Day 2009 with The Capitol Steps! LISTEN: April Fool’s Day 2009 Edition: Politics Takes A Holiday! Recorded live at the Ronald Reagan Building in DC. (One half hour: 4.5 MB) Download individual weekly clips!

UPDATE from The Politico: The Obama administration asked Rick Wagoner, the chairman and CEO of General Motors, to step down and he agreed, a White House official said. The White House confirmed Wagoner was leaving at the government’s behest after The Associated Press reported his immediate departure, without giving a reason. Just got two emails: MSNBC BREAKING NEWS: GM CEO Rick Wagoner will step down from the company, CNBC has learned New York Times Breaking News Alert: Rick Wagoner, G.M....

Part Two of Three of Larry J. Sabato on STATEHOUSE ROCK: 36 Governorships on the Chopping Block in 2010 Last week the Crystal Ball conducted a historical overview of gubernatorial midterm elections in the past sixty years. Now we’ll continue our initial analysis of the statehouse battles to come by assessing the situation in each of the 36 states hosting a contest for Governor in 2010. Let’s start with the 20 Democratic statehouses on the ballot. MORE

Washington Post: Congressman Touts Shaved Golden Retriever for First Dog There’s been no shortage of advice at the annual gathering of allergists here in Washington when it comes to the Obama family’s hunt for a hypoallergenic First Dog. The pressing issue of the would-be first pooch has dominated hallway and cocktail conversation during the five-day meeting of the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology, which ends today. The doctors have varying opinions on what breed...