I’m not an aggressive consumer of financial journalism, so it has to be something of a coincidence that I’ve come across three separate items that chronicle the dark predictions of three separate men who warned of an impending financial crisis. The first two are discussed below. The third is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The Black Swan was published in 2007 and written in the preceding years. Here are a few quotes that jumped...

In the mid-1990’s, Yale economist Robert Shiller predicted the dot-com bubble would burst. In 2005, Shiller predicted the housing bubble would burst. Why? In the wake of the dot-com crash, which helped make Shiller a public figure, Americans turned their financial attention from stocks to real estate. House prices were rising rapidly, and people had begun to see real estate as a can’t-miss investment. Shiller wanted to know what history might say about that, but he realized that data...

The weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal profiled John Paulson, whose firm made $15 billion by systematically betting against the value of American homes. Paulson himself took home $4 billion. How’d he do it? Research. Grasping for new ideas, [Paulson researcher Paolo] Pellegrini added a “trend line” that clearly illustrated how much prices had surged lately. He then performed a “regression analysis” to smooth the ups and downs. The answer was in front of him:...

The vote is in. Tom Friedman says no more troops for Afghanistan. Why? When I think back on all the moments of progress in that part of the world — all the times when a key player in the Middle East actually did something that put a smile on my face — all of them have one thing in common: America had nothing to do with it. America helped build out what they started, but the breakthrough didn’t start with us. We can fan the flames, but the parties themselves have to light the fires of moderation....

Tom Friedman says don’t send more troops to Afghanistan, because there are no positive trends to build on, like the Anbar Awakening before the surge in Iraq. Yet back in 2007, Friedman condemned the surge precisely because there was no progress to build on: January 3, 2007 Now President Bush wants a “surge” of more U.S. troops to Baghdad, in one last attempt to bring order. Whenever I hear this surge idea, I think of a couple who recently got married but the marriage was never very solid....

David Adams commanded a US advisory team in the Afghan province of Khost. Ann Marlowe reported from Afghanistan. They write, From the beginning of 2007 to March 2008, the 82nd Airborne Division’s strategy in Khost proved that 250 paratroopers could secure a province of a million people in the Pashtun belt. The key to success in Khost—which shares a 184 kilometer-long border with Pakistan’s lawless Federally Administered Tribal Areas—was working within the Afghan system. By partnering...

There’s plenty of material out there, but Steve Biddle’s article in TNR [subscription only] stands head and shouders above the rest. Even if you’re against more troops, you should test your logic against Biddle. For example, NYT columnist Nick Kristof wrote: The United States was born of our ancestors’ nationalistic resentment of a foreign power whose troops we saw as occupiers, not protectors. The British never fathomed our basic grievance — this was our land, not theirs!...

Yesterday, I was flipping through the Brooks Brothers fall catalogue. The catalog tells a story, in which all the models are part of one multi-generational (super-rich, super-WASPy) family. Except for the two black models. These two — one man and woman — seem to be married to each another (see page 112, for example). Perhaps they fell in love because of their shared passion for dressing up like WASPs (which I completely approve of, as a Brooks-loving semite myself.) But seriously,...

Michael Goldfarb is not interested in constructive criticism of J Street. What Mike wants is to expose J Street as a fringe, left-wing activist group that only pretends to be pro-Israel to advance it’s relativist agenda. So call Mike partisan, but don’t forget that partisan critics often make substantive points, regardless of their intentions. And Mike is both very sharp and very entertaining, so it’s worth reading his posts, including his three on-site reports from J Street’s...

This evening (Wed) at 6:30pm, I’ll be part of a panel discussion on the topic of “Afghanistan: Should We Stay Or Should We Go?” Details here. I assure you, if you live in Washington, there is nothing more intellectually enriching you can do tomorrow night other than listen to me. (Assuming you have a DVR and don’t have to miss a brand new episode of So You Think You Can Dance.) So, I have ten minutes to say something useful tomorrow night. My plan is to identify five critical...

Yes, you heard me right. Here’s what Kerry had to say on CBS about relying on counterterrorism instead of counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: SENATOR JOHN KERRY: That’s correct. I– I– I do not believe that a counterterrorism strategy all by itself without a sufficient level of counterinsurgency will work because if you don’t have a presence on the ground that’s effective, it– it’s almost impossible to collect the kind of intelligence that you need to...

Steve Benen has a very different opinion from my own. So what if some racist statements were falsely attributed to Rush? He’s said plenty of real racist things, too. Steve provides this list, via TAPPED, Limbaugh’s record of racist commentary…includes not only a habit of comparing black athletes to gang members but a general hostility toward black people. Limbaugh only recently suggested that having a black president encouraged black children to beat up white children —...

My old friend Dara Horn has a great column in the WSJ. She writes, Americans crave authenticity, culinary and otherwise. But most of what we consider authentic is just an earlier generation’s novelty. The Jewish delicatessen is a case in point. While cured meats are a European specialty, Mr. Sax points out that most Jews in Eastern Europe were too poor to afford red meat; pastrami got its start as a way of curing fatty poultry. Sandwiches on rye, equally alien, were an accommodation for the...

As I’ve said before, I don’t listen to Rush Limbaugh or any other conservative talk-show hosts. Nothing I know about Rush & Co. has inspired any particular respect or fondness on my part. Yet I remain deeply suspicious of those who rely on criticism of Rush & Co. to advertise their own alleged commitment to civility, facts and the reality-based community. This brings us, of course, to the recent admissions by CNN, the HuffPo and ThinkProgress that all of them falsely attributed...

As Joe Windish noted this morning, Shepherd Fairey, the artist responsible for the “HOPE” portrait of President Obama, has admitted to tampering with and manufacturing evidence in a lawsuit related to the portrait. The Associated Press claims that Mr. Fairey owes them compensation, since the portrait was based on an AP photo of Obama. I’m curious to know whether Obama will get a question about the portrait at his next press conference. He bears no responsibility for what happened,...

Andrew Sullivan: How do we know that Petraeus is, or will be, a Republican? Does anyone actually have evidence of this? Or is all this speculation based on the stereotype that military = Republican? Jason Zengerle: As best I can tell, the assumption that Petraeus is a Republican stems from the fact that he is. From Steve Coll’s New Yorker profile of Petraeus: Petraeus is registered to vote as a Republican in New Hampshire—he once described himself to a friend as a northeastern Republican,...

Eli Lake reports. Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri was killed by a Predator strike last month. This week, he granted an interview to the Asia Times. Comment: Cases like this highlight why drone strikes have to be part of a larger strategy,” said Andrew Exum, a former Army Ranger officer and part of an assessment team that advised Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, commander of U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. “Drone strikes like this can’t stand alone because … they are heavily dependent...

TNR’s Jon Chait is furious about Republican demagoguery: There’s not much fun in conceding that your side is winning over public opinion by exploiting ignorance and fear. It’s far more pleasant to imagine that the people have risen up in principled revulsion against statism. The vanguard of this fantasy movement rests at The Weekly Standard. One issue from a few weeks ago featured a cover image glorifying the town-hall protestors. Modeled after Norman Rockwell’s famous Freedom...

The Weekly Standard blog links to a BBC article which reports, For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. Naturally, the Standard reminds us that the BBC is not exactly a “bastion of right-wing extremism.” Fair enough. But the facts are a little more complicated. As I noted back in July, 1998 was an unusually hot year, whereas 1999 was relatively cool. Use 1998 as your benchmark, and it looks like temperatures have remained the same. Use 1999,...

I’m guessing he wouldn’t answer that question, but I hope his answer would be Morgan Tsavngirai, leader of a peaceful effort to bring democracy and human rights to Zimbabwe, which has been terrorized and impoverished by the Mugabe regime. Obama met with Prime Minister Tsvangirai at the White House in June. During the 2008 campaign, Obama contacted Tsvangirai: “to share my deep concern for the way his supporters are being targeted by the regime, and to express my admiration for...

I’m glad to see a staunch liberal staying strong on this issue. Hypothetical question: What if Feinstein were up for re-election in 2010 instead of 2012? I don’t know, but here’s what she said Sunday on ABC: The mission is in serious jeopardy. I think General McChrystal, who is one of our very best, if not the best at this, has said a counterterrorism strategy will not work. The president said to us very clearly, just as you said, George, we will not pull out. Now, if you’re...

The President’s reaction to winning the Nobel Prize was to say he will “not view it as a recognition of my own accomplishments.” Presidents rarely refuse to take credit for any sort of achievement, so I won’t give Obama a hard time. What’s more interesting is how the Prize committee framed its decision: Agot Valle, a Norwegian politician and member of the committee, said in a phone interview that the choice of Mr. Obama was primarily related to his stance on nuclear...

I just sent off a post to a listserv discussion about J Street and AIPAC. After one AIPAC member described the organization as non-partisan, a critic shot back that AIPAC is no more non-partisan than Queer Nation or the KKK, because all the members basically have the same opinion about their #1 issue. Here’s my response to that: Non-partisanship and diversity of opinion are two different things. The narrow definition of non-partisanship — that it brings together both Democrats and...

I was pleasanly surprised to see that Rabbi Eric Yoffie will be one of the keynote speakers at the J Street convention later this month. Rabbi Yoffie, the president of the Union for Reform Judaism, describes himself as a dove who welcomed the founding of J Street as an alternative to AIPAC. Yet when J Street equated the actions of Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Yoffie lashed out, writing, [J Street's] words are deeply distressing because they are morally deficient, profoundly out of touch with Jewish...

He is the demented comedian who gave us Uncle Sugar. He also analyzes public policy in his role as associate director of the Regulatory Studies Program at George Mason University. Ladies and gentlemen, the one and only Rob Raffety: Incidentally, the editors of the Wall Street Journal acidly note that car sales began to plunge as soon as Cash For Clunkers expired. Cross-posted at Conventional Folly