Just to give us a fresh thread to discuss the future. I’ll keep updating the election thread Coakley has conceded. AP calls it for Brown CNN calls it for Brown Looks like a 100k plus victory. Just to put it in perspective, the last time the GOP held a Senate seat was 1979. The last time they took over a formerly Democratic seat it was 1946 The question now is when Brown will take office. Under Massachusetts law the local election officials have to wait 10 days for overseas ballots and they...

Looks like a margin of around 100,000 or so for Brown, depending on Boston vote. Associated Press calls it for Brown MSNBC confirms Coakley concession Update at 6:20/9:20 This thing may just be over Right now with 66% in Brown: 757,885 Coakley: 668,881 A lead of 89,000 votes In Boston we have over half the vote in and if the current trend continued then Coakley could only gain another 20,000 or so. Even if the city went 3-1 for Coakley (which is quite possible) she would only gain about 30,000. Rumors...

Report just aired on MSNBC is saying that the Coakley camp is reporting very bad turnout for Coakley and that the only issue is how much she will lose by. This is from a top Democratic official. Could we actually have the race called at closing ?

Although I do not agree with much of what he stood for politically, I do find Thomas “Tip” O’Neill to be one of the best sources for good political stories and analogies. He is of course famous for adopting the mantra ‘all politics is local’ but for me a story he used to tell about his first campaign is telling to what is going on in his home state today. When he first ran for the local town council (while still in college if I recall correctly) he and his friends worked...

Reports are for higher than expected turnout today. Conflicting reports as to whether this is confined to the Boston area (which would help Coakley) or is even statewide (which would balance things out). However this could be a good sigh for Coakley.

With only a few hours to go before we start getting results from the unexpectedly close Senate race in Massachusetts I am sure the spin doctors on both sides are prepping for whatever the outcome is. Just to save them a little time I thought I’d suggest what they should not be saying. For the Democrats Simply put there really is not any way you can spin this one. If you lose then you’ve lost a seat you should have won by 20 points. If you manage to pull out a victory then you’ve...

The second new Governor of 2010 has taken office. Ceremony video is available on CSPAN

While he may be pretty liberal, Chris Matthews is no dummy and his analysis of the nuts and bolts of electoral politics (especially in the Northeast) is often dead on accurate. Looking at the numbers he has for key bellweathers he pretty much calls it as hopeless for Coakley. Three areas had been identified as bellweathers, Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. They were chosen because 1) the party registration figures in each is pretty much identical to the statewide numbers and 2) the results in each...

Update: Nate Silver now calls Brown a 3-1 favorite to win. I respect his analytical skills but will remain cautious about any GOP prospects in Massachusetts. Like many armchair analysts I’ve been following every new poll in the Coakley/Brown race and I’ve found the results hard to believe.  The idea that in the hard blue state of Massachusetts a virtually unknown Republican could defeat a long time state Attorney General seems as bizzare as the idea that I could play center for the...

Here’s something interesting MSNBC’s Ed Schultz says “I’d cheat to keep the bastards out” No media reaction at all to the statement. Imagine if a Fox host had said something like that Weasel Zippers: Honest Democrat Ed Schultz Says ?I?d Cheat? To Keep Scott Brown From Winning… And before you ask, the reason I am linking to this blog is it’s one of the few places to report the story but we’ve got Ed’s own voice saying it. If anyone has more details...

While TMV is mostly a news and politics site I think a little variety of stories is helpful and given the horrors of the recent week a little fluff might be nice. As we all know there is a battle between Conan, Jay and NBC over the late night lineup. Now reports are emerging that Mr. O’Brien’s contract did NOT specify when the show would be aired, simply that he would host the Tonight Show. Now as most of you know I am an attorney and while I do not do any sort of work in entertainment...

Who would have ever thought we’d see a headline like this and part of us would be relieved about the good news. Obviously 50,000 dead is a horrible tragedy but with other figures approaching ten times that much it might actually be a relief.

As we watch the tragedy in Haiti and the amazing efforts of the world community (led as is often the case by the United States) I hope that for once we can avoid the partisanship that seems to flow in to almost any story these days. So just to make it clear. This is not the time for those on the right to try and attack Obama for not doing enough or for spending money where he should not or any other attack. This is also not the time for those on the left to raise the Katrina story and talk about...

Obviously at this point any speculation about the death toll in the Haitian earthquake is just that, speculation. But reports from the Haitian government are talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths. In the past speculation about tolls this high have often turned out to be overstated but in this case given that the quake shattered a city of several million people there is a good chance that they numbers could be accurate. In any case the disaster is clearly one of epic proportions and it is...

One of the long term problems faced by the United States is the issue of the budget deficit and the long term debt that is being compiled. While many try to make it a partisan issue the fact is we’ve had Presidents and Congresses of both parties overspending for decades. Recently spending has soared due to the sagging economy and the argument has been that we need to spend in order to prevent economic chaos. However the ultimate solution to the US problem may be found not in Washington but...

Update: A stunning picture in the NY Times That is the National Palace, in essence the equivalent of the US White House Reports are getting worse. They now fear thousands of fatalities but nothing will be clear until morning. A long dark night for the people of Haiti.

In the category of minor but bemusing. A new attack ad from Senate candidate Martha Coakley misspelled the word… Massachusetts. Or as they tried it Massachusettes. Oooooooooooooooooooops. Story here

A 7.0 earthquake has struck and reportedly ‘shattered’ the capital city of Haiti and the surrounding region. Reports indicate that parts of the Presidential residence have collapsed along with many other buildings. With millions living on the impoverished island the death toll could be horrible. Details here You can also check out reports on USGS quake site which shows just how many people felt very violent shaking.

Another poll, this one from Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows the Senate race with a one point lead for the Republican Scott Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley. As I indicated with the Rasmussen poll I expect Coakley to win and to do so by a fairly comfortable margin (probably approaching double digits). The state is simply too hard core Democratic these days and I think these polls either underestimate Democratic turnout or will at minimum encourage a major GOTV effort by the Coakley campaign. It is...

Vice President Biden’s mother has died after a brief illness My deepest sympathies go to the entire Biden family. A time to be totally non partisan.

As already reported here on TMV two US Senators, both Democrats, have announced they will retire. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has bowed to the inevitable and will retire while Byron Dorgan of North Dakota shocked many with his decision to step down. This ends up as a split decision for the parties. Dorgan’s retirement is a major blow to the Democrats, the only chance they have of holding that seat is if Congressman Earl Pomeroy decided to run for the Senate and then his House seat would be...

In what has to be a blow to Democrats three term incumbent Byron Dorgan of North Dakota has announced he will not seek re-election in 2010. Democrats do have popular Congressman Earl Pomerey who could run for the seat but his House seat would then be a likely switch to the GOP. Republicans have equally popular Governor John Hoeven in the wings and he had been leading Dorgan in all polls.

A new poll shows the race to succeed the late Ted Kennedy is down to 50-41. I still expect the Democrat Coakley to win and with this poll out there will probably be more of a get out the vote effort, so she’ll probably win by 10-15 points. But it is interesting to see the race this close given that the state has only about 20% Republican voters.

The past year or so has been very difficult on our society as millions of people have lost jobs or seen their retirement plans go bust. Obviously I have nothing but the deepest sympathy for those who have suffered. In my work I often see people who are on the clear downswing of their financial lives. Yet in the past few weeks I have seen two very different reactions. I am certainly not suggesting that these reactions are typical of the groups the individuals represented but I do think the two reactions...

Reports of a possible Somali attack on the inauguration of President Obama led to a great deal of concern with Bush and Obama officials. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was kept at a secure location just in case something happened. As it turns out the rumors were probably false but it does give a new image to the events of a year ago.