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Are Obama And The Democrats In Trouble Already?

August 4th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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So was Democratic Senator Barack Obama’s week of playing defensive merely a little glitch because he’s running in a year when the mounting ills traced to the Bush administration seemingly multiply by the day? The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Dick Polman, in the political quote of the day, warns that Obama and the Democrats may be in greater trouble than they think:

The big question, however, is whether Americans in 2008 will vote their wallets and pocketbooks - assigning blame, as Fair sees it, to the incumbent party’s nominee - or whether they will continue to confound conventional wisdom, as they have so often in this campaign season.

Indeed, one of the key reasons for [Republican Senator John] McCain’s recent barrage of attacks on Obama is his urgent need to change the traditional paradigm. His strategists are well aware that the sour economy hampers their prospects, especially since McCain is widely perceived in the polls as ideologically sympatico with the incumbent president of his own party; and since McCain himself has admitted that “the issue of economics is not something I have understood as well as I should.”

Hence his need to make the voters focus on something besides economic anxiety. The obvious alternative - for a McCain attack team now dominated by Karl Rove alumni - is to shred the opponent’s persona…and suggest, for example, that Obama is merely an uppity arrogant airhead celebrity who wants to lose a war.

So should the Democrats and Obama supporters breathe a sigh of relief now that the week is over and they head into the convention, with a tough new Obama ad on energy policy blasting McCain’s ties to oil interests? After all, most of the news — particularly financial news — isn’t good for the GOP, and the Democrats are expected to win seats in Congress. Polman, in effect, says in your dreams. — the worst is likely yet to come.

And that’s just for starters. It’s August now, the traditional Democratic disaster month. Michael Dukakis was destroyed in August ‘88, when the GOP painted him as a water-polluting, insufficiently flag-waving, rapist-enabling wussy; his response at the time was zilch, because he refused to believe that voters would buy the caricatures. They did. And 16 years later, in August ‘04, John Kerry was transformed by the Swift Boaters from war hero to fraud; his response at the time was to embark on a wind-surfing vacation. His people said virtually nothing for several weeks, because they refused to believe that voters would buy the caricature. They did.

Obama now faces many potential dog day afternoons. His current line is that he is “disappointed” in McCain for launching such attacks, but I doubt that a mournful sigh is sufficient to stop further shelling from the McCain war room. Clearly he will need stronger weaponry if he wants to survive the ides of August. Contrary to what some of the economic forecasters believe, I find it hard to imagine, in this unconventional campaign season, that swing voters will tilt Democratic merely because of the sluggish quarterly growth rates in the GDP.

Read his article in full.

And that’s the dilemma that campaigns — and Americans who seek a shift in how we conduct our personality-oriented seek-and-destroy Presidential campaigns — face. These kinds of campaigns, with their synergistic tie-ins to sound bite mantras, imagery-stereotypes, slogans and attitudes quickly picked up by partisans via reinforcement on talk and cable opinion shows and the Internet, do work.

As Polman notes, the Democrats continually find themselves flat-footed and out of sync when hit by a barrage of GOP attacks, even if they run in years when there’s massive pundit hype about how THIS will be the Democrats’ year.

The question: do you play the game on the playing field where the game is conducted and officially-decided and play by the rules that teams use, or do you pick up and move to play the game on a field you choose by your own rules — while the other side is scoring points on the official playing field where the game is officially-decided?

The Los Angeles Times’ James Rainey argues that Obama is coming under fire from pundits for being overconfident because he’s acting Presidential. Fair enough.

But that may not be what winning Presidential campaigns require. President Dewey, President Dukakis, and President Kerry found that out. There’s even news that McCain is going to wait to let Obama pick his Vice President first (code words: so the Veep can come under fierce attack or mockery and McCain can then counter the selection).

One bit of conventional wisdom via critics is that Obama won’t be truly tested for President until he spends some time responding to a crisis in the Oval Office.

Actually, his first test will come this month to see how he, his campaign team and the often-politically-outfoxed Democrats, respond to the onslaught that is about to come.

Will this August be political as well as TV re-run season?

UPDATE: More bad polling news for Obama. Rasmussen is reporting a shift:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3 (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

We’ve repeatedly said here that a single poll is not as significant as a trend. Between this and the Gallup Daily tracking poll which basically puts the race as a dead heat, we are seeing a trend. The McCain campaign is now on the ascent; the Obama campaign is on the descent. Will this apparent trend continue?



This entry was posted on Monday, August 4th, 2008 at 7:56 am and is filed under Quote of the Day, Republican Party, Newsweek Blogitics, Negative Campaigning, Demonization, Vice President, Democratic Party, John McCain, Democrats, 2008 Elections, Karl Rove, John Kerry, Barack Obama, Republicans, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 15 Comments

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    Joe, don't you know by now that the press loves to play "Does Obama have a problem with" and use whatever you can find - a group, one poll out of 5, ect. ect. For 4 months straight without a break this storyline has been running.
    Mostly it's about working class whites but, with the new polling out it seems he's beating mcCain 2 to 1 in that group. but, the media still may decide to try to continue this storyline as they seem to like that one.
    The LA Times article was right!
    The press chased Obama across the middle east and europe in hopes of getting some Dukakis in a Tank moments and prove he is not ready. Instead he was presidential and was greeted as one by world leaders and the people. A president who does not inspire hate like Chimpy Bush does.
    He was flawless and proved he knows his foreign policy and the troops love him.
    The press wanted to do payback for wasting their time with a flawless performance instead of a Dukakis in a Tank.
    And it hurt poor Johnny McCain's feelings that they did not stay and flutter over him as they usually do.
    But, they did keep up the ignoring of his gaffes and stumbles and from the voters that McCain is not as 'experienced' and Mr. Foreign Policy as he bills himself as.
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    "The question: do you play the game on the playing field where the game is conducted and officially decided and play by the rules that teams use, or do you pick up and move to play the game on a field you choose by your own rules — while the other side is scoring points on the official playing field where the game is officially decided?"

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    You and I are on the same page friend. For months now I've been hammering this point home to democrats.

    Forget August. They'll still be nice to him, relatively, in August. It's after-August and more towards October after the ballots have been printed and sent out that they'll hit with Sinclair..

    No matter how "off-field" his supporters are playing now, they will be dragged on-field kicking and screaming to watch the merciless trouncing of their worshipped candidate as the election nears.

    Like I said before, if the current criticism bothers Obama and his supporters, they'd better get heavily medicated in preparation for what's to come..

    If you think the GOP is going to hold back the Sinclair story with the risk of a democratic president, democratic Congress and democratic Supreme Court, you ain't right in the head.

    Ironically, Obama's only hope is to fall behind in the polls clear up until the day of the election. And that is no hope at all..
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    I'm in agreement with points from both vw & sil. Obama's stature grew during his "world tour", but lost momentum soon enough as McCain's attack ads came out & were widely featured on most MSM "news" shows.
    Obama's campaign REALLY needs to wake up, smell the coffee, DRINK the coffee, and gird up from now on. Start using better surrogates (no, NOT John Kerry, please) who can push back at McCain with FACTS, and hit back HARD. Rove's underlings are starting to work & we ain't seen nothing yet. Why O's campaign does not see this yet is baffling.
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    The minute Obama pulled away from Hillary they went into CAREFUL DEFENSIVE mode and have not come out of that protect the lead shell.

    They are still leading in the electoral votes so they are still playing it safe. Once that lead continues to shrink then you will see them unleash some heavy hitting adds and get dirty just like McCain.

    AFter all it is about winning, no matter what Obama might have you believe.
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    Yes, and we need to know what brand of coffee will be served. In other words, what exact "dirt" are they going to dig up and smear Obama with and what are the details, the nitty gritty details of that dirt that we need to brace ourselves to defend.

    It's going to happen. Wishing it won't isn't going to change a single thing.

    Here's a foreshadowing, again, of one key issue their going to sling:

    ****

    "..The Main Stream Media has taken a huge shopping spree, buying up everything offered in the Obama Cover-up Store! They have bought into the lies and smears, lock, stock and barrell, without looking into the facts, without asking a single question, or showing a modicum of respect to an American, Larry Sinclair, who bravely asked that the truth be told. The Main Stream Media is as guilty as Obama when it comes to the cover-up of this story! Shame on them!


    Over the 4th of July, I saw a program on an Italian fireworks master and how those displays were created. I saw the Boston barge loaded with the show, ready for the celebration. It is amazing stuff. Couldn't help thinking about the explosion that is going to happen when a decent Investigative Reporter takes all the information that Larry Sinclair has made available and writes, really writes, this story..."
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    What does this except from: http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/331... really say? It says that the GOP are going to paint Larry Sinclair out as an American hero who dared to tell the truth. Obama will be cast as the villain. The whole thing will be blamed on the "liberal media" for "refusing to air this story before.

    The net result will be that the democratic hopeful will be dethroned at a critical moment to affect a GOP win in November. That's the long and the short of the whole enchilada.

    You can choose to ignore this, laugh it off, ridicule other concerned democrats for daring to even discuss it. You can threaten, cajole, stonewall, ban and even interrupt satellite service if it comes to that ; ) but you cannot quell the reality that will soon be knocking on every democrat's door.

    The GOP does not play fair. They are downright diabolical. This will not change with respect to the Sinclair story.
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    There is only one explanation for this shift: McCain's ads. I was almost alone here at TMV in thinking "Celeb" was brilliant.

    The pundits universally despised it. . . even Jon Stewart - who should have known better - ridiculed it. But it is the only explanation, as "Celeb" fitted perfectly into the public's awareness of Obama's ubiquitous media coverage.

    And yes, I am still waiting for McCain to fire Schmidt and Co. who developed those ads . . . as pundits with sources deep inside the McCain campaign (quoted here at TMV) promised us would happen for McCain mocking the all-powerful Hilton family.

    Hahahahaha . . . McCain is burning the pundit palace down about their ears.

    But Obama is still ahead in terms of the electoral college. Plus, I believe his staying on "Positive Point" will yield him long term benefits after the debate.

    But Democratic surrogates in the MSM and the blogosphere are caught flat-footed in their negative pushback against McCain on these ads. Given the huge Democratic advantage in money and MSM penetration, this is interesting.

    My take: They need a new negative meme on McCain. McSame doesn't work. Old man "Grampa Simpson" McCain is tired. I would suggest linking McCain to retrograde elements in the GOP, throwing racist and homophobic charges at him continually on a daily basis. . . while Obama sighs and reaffirms positively that he believe McCain is neither racist nor homophobic.
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    It's as if the words are just passing through a sieve.

    Sinclair. Google it. The GOP has..
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    VWcat said: "they did keep up the ignoring of his gaffes and stumbles"

    I totally disagree. The MSM celebrated McCain's gaffes on a daily basis. That is why the McCain campaign is in radical lockdown mode. The "Straight Talk Express" in 2000 witnessed numerous gaffes, that the reporters swallowed as they like McCain and hated Bush. Now those same gaffes are magnified. No more "Straight Talk" from McCain for the duration, I suspect.

    McCain's lockdown is more absolute than Obama's . . . and its closest analogue is Kerry's in 2004.

    McCain is very similar to Kerry in that both like talking endlessly, and given enough facetime with reporters will hang themselves. McCain's campaign recognizes this vulnerability, and so has adopted a strategy straight out of Kerry's playbook.

    This is a clear vulnerability. . . and one that Obama would do well to exploit, as Bush/Rove did with Kerry.