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Post-Debate Polls Again Show Obama Won

October 15th, 2008
By ELYAS BAKHTIARI

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If this debate proved anything, it’s that most political pundits don’t have the foggiest idea what they’re talking about. I popped over to Politico’s roundup of reactions, and the consensus is that McCain did great, even if it wasn’t a game changer. But look at the post-debate snap polls:

  • Mediacurves: 60% of Independents say Obama won; 30% say McCain; 10% called it a tie
  • CBS: 53% of voters say Obama won, 22% say McCain
  • CNN: 58% of voters say Obama won, 31% say McCain

We’ve had four debates now, and each time the census from the pundits has been “it’s a tie on points.” But each time, voters have heavily favored Obama. How are so many people getting paid to be so wrong?

I think the problem here is political junkies and pundits are watching these debates for entertainment. They follow this stuff everyday, and they want a nice one-line zinger that they can dissect and replay and get excited about. But voters are looking for a president, not entertainment. Where pundits are giving McCain credit for “putting Obama on the defensive,” voters are docking him points for dodging questions and coming across as condescending. Where Obama comes across as boring and “professorial” to pundits, voters give him credit for being presidential.

Here’s the rub: Pundit reactions could actually change how the debate is interpreted after the fact. But if these initial polls hold up for a few days, John McCain is toast. He needed to turn this thing around tonight. If 60% of Independents are saying Obama won, he didn’t accomplish that goal.



This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 15th, 2008 at 11:33 pm and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Debates, John McCain, Barack Obama, 2008 Elections. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 5 Comments

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    The true test should be what is getting through to the voters-- not what the pundits thought. We all know that they have been wrong more often than not. But, I did think McCain had his best debate tonight. It was just too little too late-- and I think he soured the audience by spending too much time on Ayers and Acorn. Only conservatives are interested in those associations- and they will vote for him anyway.
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    The pundits have consistently found McCain to have performed well and find him and Obama pretty much tied. I still cannot figure out what standards they are using for these presidential debates, since by classical debate rules Obama wins on style and substance, and if you go by an independent or undecided voter test, Obama seems to be more convincing. Then again pundits generally treat Obama as the underdog and give McCain a lot of credit for his long resume despite strong showings in the polls for weeks showing McCain is the underdog and Obama's lack of experience is more than compensated for by wide interest in his message of change and plans for achieving it.

    Only thing I can figure is that for those who have lived and breathed this race for the past almost 2 years, the two candidates still seem neck in neck since no huge gaffes, revelations, blunders or massive game-changers have been thrown into the mix. The only game changers have been Palin, the economic downturn & subsequent bailout bill saga, and they've all led to a gradual souring of McCain and sweetening of Obama, so the media has hit a groove where the campaign still seems dynamic, interesting and newsworthy if they just let it play out. Plus, none of them wants to be on the hook for calling the race before votes are even cast, so they'll drag it out as best they can (boy are the next few weeks going to be tedious unless some huge scandal breaks) and we'll all act super surprised when the polls close and then we can get on beating some other poor topic to death, going round and round about the same few points.
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    The election has been going on for so long that I'll be going through withdrawel on Nov 5th. If Obama wins, we'll have to listen to 4 years of pundits analyzing his every word , expression, decision or absence of any of those.

    I may even miss Bush/Cheney since we won't have them to kick around anymore. It was kind of fascinating to see how much they could do to screw up the country.Speaking of Cheney- he's really keeping a low profile. And Bush looks like he's scared to death.
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    "They [political junkies and pundits] follow this stuff everyday, and they want a nice one-line zinger that they can dissect and replay and get excited about. But voters are looking for a president, not entertainment."

    I agree... that's one of the reasons I like to watch the debate on CNN with their dial poll of undecided Ohio voters. I watch the graph at the bottom of the screen to see what those undecideds believe and how closely they match my own response (sometimes we're similar, sometimes not).... It's always interesting when Obama or McCain say something and I think it' great but then the graph stays flat....

    I did notice that McCain did better at the beginning of the debate (my thought and the dial group) but at the end of the debate Obama seemed to do better overall. Some of the political pundits thought that Obama did not do so well in the first 30 minutes, but then picked up. I don't know if they were watching the dial group or not....
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    Pundits are looking for a quick fix answer, and unfortunately their isn't one. They also don't want to lean one way or the other for fear of being totally off. So they play the middle ambiguities.
 
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