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Obama in Europe: a shaky love affair

July 23rd, 2008
By BRIJ KHINDARIA, International Columnist

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Senator Barack Obama will get a much warmer welcome in Europe than in Israel after his fact finding trips to Iraq and Afghanistan but the honeymoon could be short-lived were he to become President.

The people in Germany, France and other countries are enthusiastic about Obama because having anyone other than George Bush in the White House would be a relief. Many would like to see Obama there because he is young and charismatic and thinks more like them about international issues.

For many Europeans, rightly or wrongly, John McCain is an old warrior concerned with the military glory of yesterday’s America rather than a visionary capable of leading the world to a better tomorrow for everyone.

Ironically, the prospect of seeing a black US President seems to make Europeans swell with pride although they very rarely elect “colored” people to their national parliaments or even to local councils. In Germany, second generation immigrants from “almost white” countries like Turkey still find it hard to get nationality.

The attitudes of Europeans and many others around the world towards Obama are more emotional than reasoned. There is a surge of wishful thinking about how the world would be a better, happier and more peaceful place if Bush hands over to a hope-inspiring shadow of John F. Kennedy.

Much hope is pinned on Obama because he says he prefers to talk to America’s adversaries before picking up the gun. This may be a departure from Bush’s obduracy but persuading the European street to support American policy with money and soldiers will be no easier.

It is also difficult to compromise on core conflicts such as Israel’s security, Iran’s bomb and terrorist havens in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. In such cases, talking gives the other side time to prepare for higher levels of violence.

McCain may be right when he says Obama thinks great thoughts but appears not to grasp the nuts and bolts. He raises hopes without fully understanding the emotional vulnerability of the people who hope.

The love for President Obama could disappear within a year if he fails to deliver causing America’s image to sink lower than the depths reached by Bush because the fall would be from a greater height of hope.

This cannot be ruled out because President Obama’s room for maneuver for handling problems will not be much greater than that of the Bush administration.

At this time, the main issues with global implications include Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Israel-Palestine, the food crisis, costly oil, adverse climate change, financial instability, poor education and health care, poverty and world inflation combined with economic downturn.

Bush has struggled with these with help from some of the best available experts. Obama too will have to use experts. The political bias underlying advice he receives will be different from Bush’s teams but facts entrenched on the ground will remain.

For example, Iraq will continue to be unstable regardless of who occupies the White House until its own warring factions reach the territorial and financial carve up that makes further violence unnecessary.

American victory in Iraq is an illusory ambition. Hardly anyone there is fighting for US style liberal democracy underpinned by strong institutions. The factions are fighting to reach an internal balance of power with some like the Shia and Kurds trying to redress historic injustice. Within this context, Shia on Shia and Sunni on Sunni violence and Kurd on Kurd mistrust remain unresolved.

Afghans are also not fighting for US style democracy. Their fight is between “moderate” and medieval Muslims with the moderates using Western money, weapons and soldiers to win and secure advantage. Victory is possible in Afghanistan because there are two sides to the conflict but it may be long in coming because each comprises warlords and carpet baggers who profit from instability.

Iran and Israel are profound wounds that cannot be closed just by changing the political lens or injecting more common sense and charisma. Even if Obama gives them high priority from the start of his term, his room for maneuver is limited because the interests of too many foreign powers are involved.

The food crisis is vitally important for the world’s people but Obama cannot suddenly disarm the powerful US farm lobbies to reduce subsidies and make global food trade fairer for poor countries. Solutions to the energy crisis, climate change and world inflation are also not in Obama’s writ.

So Columbus, Ohio, need not be wary of foreigners’ love of Obama. It may be just a wispy flirtation.



This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008 at 11:46 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Blog Roundup, John McCain, Barack Obama, 2008 Elections, Europe, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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