How Obama And Clinton Will Likely End Democratic Primaries (UPDATE 3)
June 1st, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
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So are we now close to the endgame in the seemingly-endless Democratic primaries? Or will it go all the way to the Denver convention in August, with supporters on each side of the nearly evenly divided Democratic Party continuing to be increasingly irritated and frustrated with the other side as Republicans watch the spectacle with bigger and bigger smiles?
Yesterday’s decision at the DNC, which gave the Clinton campaign some of what it wanted in terms of Michigan and Florida delegates but not its actual demands, ended up being the decision that many on the DNC reportedly actually wanted.
And now the predictions and questions have started. Will Clinton start to ease her campaign to a close or suspend it this week? Will she withdraw? Will she fight on in Denver? Will Obama make a big victory speech this week if, as expected, he’s within a hair of the nomination or over the top by the end of the week in pledged delegates and more superdelegates come out for him? Or will he make a more modest pitch?
The Telegraph reports that there’s an Obama effort behind the scenes to offer Clinton a “graceful” exit — one that notably avoids asking her to run as Obama’s Veep:
Hillary Clinton will be offered a dignified exit from the presidential race and the prospect of a place in Barack Obama’s cabinet under plans for a “negotiated surrender” of her White House ambitions being drawn up by Senator Obama’s aides.
The former First Lady would get the chance to pilot Mr Obama’s reforms of the American healthcare system if she agrees to clear the path to his nomination as Democratic presidential candidate.
Senior figures in the Obama camp have told Democrat colleagues that the offer to Mrs Clinton of a cabinet post as health secretary or to steer new legislation through the Senate will be a central element of their peace overtures to the New York senator.
Not inviting her to be his running mate is not an oversight:
Despite pressure from some Clinton allies, Mr Obama and his advisers do not wish to ask her to be his vice-presidential running mate. “They will talk to her,” one Democrat strategist close to senior figures in the Obama camp told The Sunday Telegraph. “They will give her the respect she deserves. She will get something to do with health care, a cabinet post or the chance to lead the legislation through the Senate.”
Another Democrat who has discussed strategy with friends in the Obama inner circle said that Mr Obama was openly considering asking Mrs Clinton to join his cabinet, alongside two other former presidential rivals: John Edwards, who is seen as a likely attorney general; and Joe Biden, who is a leading contender to become Secretary of State.
Mr Obama hinted at the plan last week. “One of my heroes is Abraham Lincoln,” he said. “Lincoln basically pulled in all the people who had been running against him into his cabinet because whatever personal feelings there were, the issue was ‘how can we get this country through this time of crisis?’ And I think that has to be the approach that one takes.”
If Obama and Clinton could pull something like this off, it would go a long way towards not just unifying the Democratic Party but making the Democrats more attractive to independents and to moderate and ‘disgruntled” (to use the White House’s favorite word) Republicans. It would show that Obama could start a process of not just intra-party unification but ideological unification — bringing together strands of the Democratic Party that veer center, center left and center right (depending on the issue).
Even so, the New York Times notes that there’s no clear exit “roadmap” in sight for the Demmies — but that Clinton is a realist and could conceivably pull back as early as this week:
Still, despite the fireworks, Mrs. Clinton’s associates said she seemed to have come to terms over the last week with the near certainty that she would not win the nomination, even as she continued to assert, with what one associate described as subdued resignation, that the Democrats are making a mistake in sending Mr. Obama up against Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.
Her associates said the most likely outcome was that she would end her bid with a speech, probably back home in New York, in which she would endorse Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton herself suggested on Friday that the contest would end sometime next week.
But that is not a certainty; Mr. Obama’s announcement on Saturday that he would leave his church was just another reminder of how events continue to unfold in the race. She has signaled her ambivalence about the outcome, continuing to urge superdelegates to keep an open mind and consider, for example, the number of popular votes she has won. Gov. Phil Bredesen of Tennessee, a superdelegate who has been at the forefront of calling for uncommitted Democrats to make a choice soon after the last vote, said in an interview that Mrs. Clinton called him last week and urged him to “keep an open mind until the convention.”
(SEE UPDATE BELOW)
However, there’s a danger here for the Clinton campaign. A lot of people wonder why the Clinton campaign is so insistent about waiting until the convention - and some are filling in the blanks.
If an earth-shattering item about Obama just happens to hit the Drudge Report before the convention (especially if it hits in a way that the Obama campaign doesn’t have enough time to respond and deal with it) many Obama supporters and seasoned news media types will suspect and perhaps even directly point the finger at the Clinton campaign as the source due to the Clinton campaign’s reported relationship with the Drudge website. That would mean Clinton would find authentic party unity difficult — and, if she won the White House, she’d take office as a polarizing figure with very little of a safety net of goodwill should she run into trouble.
UPDATE: A pro-Clinton blog is predicting a rumored tape that shows Michelle Obama saying some things (she is alleged to be talking about ‘whitey’) at the Obamas’ former Trinity church will surface..and promises more news on it by Monday…one day before two primaries Obama is favored to win. If this becomes a big story either due to a post that whips through the Internet and is picked up by the mainstream media — or if a dramatic video surfaces on Drudge — a) would it be enough to derail Obama’s candidacy and b) could it cause a backlash since, if a tape such as this exists and surfaces the day before a primary, the political intent would be so clear?
And Obama? ABC’s Political Radar reports that he hopes to wrap it up by this week and won’t wait for an official declaration from the Clinton campaign to point out he has the delegate votes, if he gets them:
Obama’s campaign expects to win around 38 delegates in the final three contests of Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. If he hits that mark, it would leave him 30 superdelegates away from his party’s nod.
The Obama campaign is pushing superdelegates to come on board by Tuesday so that Obama can claim his party’s presidential nomination when he speaks that evening at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minn.
The site was chosen because it is the same place where Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will formally receive the GOP’s presidential nomination in early September.
Asked if Obama would wait to get a concession call from Clinton before claiming the nomination, Dunn said the onus was on Clinton now that the Democratic Party has firmed up the number of delegates needed to claim the party’s nod.
“He’s not going to wait by the phone like a high-school girl waiting for a date,” said Dunn. “That’s not Barack Obama.”
“After Tuesday,” Dunn added, referring to the final contests of South Dakota and Montana, Clinton “can decide how united she wants this party to be.”
Even so, feelings between Clinton and Obama supporters are more tense, in a sense, than feeling between Democrats and Republicans going into the 2008 election.
Just look at the anger and attitude of this Clinton supporter (who was reportedly ejected from the DNC rules committee meeting) in this YouTube that has gotten some 219,000 views so far:
UPDATE II: This Clinton supporter who was ejected later showed her bruises from being ejected from the meeting.
UPDATE THREE: Developments on the end-race — or non-end race — are moving fast and furious as you read this.
–Clinton’s aides say she may appeal:
Aides to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton say she may appeal yesterday’s decision by the Democratic National Committee to seat delegates from Michigan and Florida with half-votes.
…”There’s been a lot of talk about party unity, let’s all come together and put our arms around each other,” said Clinton advisor Harold Ickes. “I submit to you, ladies and gentlemen, hijacking four delegates is not a good way to start down the path of party unity.”
Clinton’s campaign objected to the compromise on Michigan’s delegates because it gave the former first lady four fewer delegates than aides had maintained she was entitled to, prompting new threats to take the fight to the August convention. She trails Obama by more than 170 delegates.
“She will be consulting with people and she will be making the decision later on,” said adviser Harold Ickes, a member of the committee that voted Saturday. He hinted that the 2,118 delegates needed for the nomination may grow.
“But in our view, the final number for the nomination will not be fixed until Michigan is ultimately resolved, but that will depend on what Mrs. Clinton decides to do,” Ickes said on CNN’s “Late Edition.”
This entry was posted on Sunday, June 1st, 2008 at 6:42 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Voting, You Tube, DNC, Primaries, Michigan, Superdelegates, Conventions, Florida, Women, Democratic Party, Democrats, Race, Gender, 2008 Elections, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Women's Issues, Elections, Videos, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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