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Gallup Daily: Obama Regains Double Digit Lead Over Clinton And Now Statistically Ties Clinton Against McCain

May 29th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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If the latest Gallup Daily tracking poll indicates a trend, Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton will stop pointing to Gallup when she makes her pitch this weekend to a Democratic party committee in Washington in an effort to get the Michigan and Florida delegations seated.

In recent days, Clinton got into political hotwater by claiming “every” poll showed her beating John McCain in a matchup which was not true. She was mostly pointing to Gallup polls, and her later comments were more accurately focused.

But the latest Gallup Daily tracking poll shows rival-for-the-Democratic nomination Senator Barack Obama now regaining his double-digit lead over her among Democrats and statistically tied with Clinton in the votes a Democrat would get against Republican presumptive nominee Senator John McCain.

Both Clinton and Obama would beat McCain.

Barack Obama has, for the moment, re-established a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic voters’ nomination preferences in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, 52% to 42%.

And:

In a bit of a change from recent days, Obama and Clinton are both running similarly versus John McCain in the general election. Clinton had fared better in recent trial heats than Obama, but the latest update shows both races as statistical ties — Clinton 47%, McCain 45% and Obama 46%, McCain 45%.

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Gallup notes that the context of this and the convergence of various political events are not good for Clinton:

Since just after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Obama has led Clinton nearly every day, including a stretch of double-digit leads in the May 18-22 Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. Since then, his advantage had been slightly less, at five to eight percentage points, but is back to a 10-point lead in the latest data.

Just three primary contests remain, and news reports suggest that the dispute over the Michigan and Florida convention delegations will not be resolved in the best possible way for the Clinton campaign. The Democratic National Committee will meet this weekend and likely allow either half those states’ delegates to attend, or the full delegations to attend, but with each member given half a vote. Thus, it is a near certainty that Obama will have clinched enough delegates to win the nomination under the current rules, and Clinton’s only hope of winning the nomination may reside in lawsuits or a convention floor fight.

But will it come to that? According to reports, Democratic leaders are now pushing behind the scenes to get the battle wrapped up via having superdelegates come out and commit ASAP:

Top Democratic leaders intend to push for a quick end to the battle for the presidential nomination when primaries are over next week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday, adding that he, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and party chairman Howard Dean will urge uncommitted delegates to choose sides.

“By this time next week, it will all be over give or take a day,” Reid said of the marathon race between the front-running Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Obama is within 44 delegates of clinching the nomination, according to The Associated Press tally, and leads Clinton by roughly 200 delegates.

Democratic officials said Pelosi already has begun contacting uncommitted House members urging them to weigh in soon after the primary season ends. Numerous Democrats have expressed concern that a protracted nominating campaign could harm the party’s chances of winning the White House in the fall. John McCain effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination in March.

Lawsuits would probably be a huge mistake for Clinton. Litigation would further divide the already-battered party because it would conjure up still-raw images of the 2000 Bush-Gore race where — many Democrats feel — the Republicans used the courtroom to secure hotly disputed electoral victory.



This entry was posted on Thursday, May 29th, 2008 at 11:38 pm and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, DNC, Primaries, Conventions, Superdelegates, Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Polls, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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    I hope this reflects a backlash against Clinton's aggressive tacktics and mind boggling arguments.
    I never understood how The Reps could go along with what Bush's campaign did to smear McCain, so I sure don't understand what the Hillary campers think they're doing by trying to smear Obama.

    I'm hoping there will be a huge backlash against hat kind of thing across the board.
    But what am I saying? This is politics!
 
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