« The Ahead-Of-His-Time Comedy Of Ernie Kovaks
Cable prices go up, up, up »



Election Poll Shocker: Dems may carry California in Fall

May 24th, 2008
By JAZZ SHAW, Assistant Editor

Print Print

It takes time and money to conduct polling, and all of the politically addicted writers around the country really appreciate the effort that goes into it. But did the L.A. Times really need to invest the energy to conduct this poll?

Obama would take California in November, Times/KTLA poll finds

Less than four months after losing the California primary, Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in projected November general election matchups, a new Los Angeles Times/KTLA Poll has found.

Obama, the Illinois senator who has inched close to his party’s nomination, would defeat McCain by seven points if the election were held today. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, whose fortunes have faltered since her Feb. 5 drubbing of Obama in California, would eke out only a three-point victory, the poll found.

I understand that the media (old and new) always love something new to talk about, but have we really gotten to the point where someone is seriously questioning whether or not the Democrats can carry California in November? There are two points to bring up about these numbers. First, as we have pointed out repeatedly, we’re not going to see any serious hard numbers until the Democratic nomination is completed and had some time to settle out. These numbers still include large numbers of people who are Obama supporters saying they would vote for McCain over Clinton, and Clinton supporters saying they will support the Arizona Senator over Obama. This should largely evaporate later in the summer.

Second, flawed though the totals may be, it puts the lie to to the arguments made by both candidates about “who can carry which big states in the Fall” except for the true swing states. Just because, for example, Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary against Obama in New York and California, this does not mean that suddenly the Republicans will pull those states in November if Obama is the nominee.

Hey, L.A. Times… if you really want to give us some useful polling data, head up North a little ways and let us know what’s going on in Oregon and Washington or out East a bit in the mountain states. Just a tip for ya’ll. Thanks!



This entry was posted on Saturday, May 24th, 2008 at 7:55 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, 2008 Elections, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 3 Comments

    • ^
    • v
    I think it's a no-brainer that CA will go Dem in the Fall.

    But given that McCain is next door in AZ and he probably does well with the defense industry and military establishment here I think the poll was probably necessary. I'd hate to wake up on Jan. 21 to find out that McCain was inaugurated the day before because someone (the Dems) took CA for granted.

    Besides, as you pointed out, just because Hill won CA doesn't mean that Obama won't win it. So this poll is just a double-check.

    I see the poll results as one way to convince the superdelegates that Obama is electable. I mean CA is a big prize and if there's a poll that shows Obama will beat McCain by a wider margin in CA then Hill, then it lessens Hill's argument that she is more electable.

    So yeah, on one hand the poll is unnecessary because everyone knows (assumes) that CA will go Dem, but on the other hand it's nice to have evidence (if only from one poll) that CA is still leaning Dem.

    BTW: I love the title of the post and it's sarcastic tone. It's right on but I still like the reality check of having an actual poll to back up my own sarcasm on this.
    • ^
    • v
    McCAin has zero chance of winning in Californai and the Republicans will not spend one dollar of their limited public fiancing funds in California.

    In the long run, national politics will resemble California politics: A single party state where there are few competative elections because the districts are draw to protect incumbents.
    • ^
    • v
    "Obama, the Illinois senator who has inched close to his party’s nomination, would defeat McCain by seven points if the election were held today. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, whose fortunes have faltered since her Feb. 5 drubbing of Obama in California, would eke out only a three-point victory, the poll found."

    McCain would only lose to Obama by 7 points and Clinton by 3? Although I too agree that this poll might just be a bit unnecessary, I do find the margins of victory to actually be much closer than what I would have predicted. Is a 7 point lead really that hard to overcome? Granted, the poll points out that if the elections were held today, these would be the numbers. I honestly can't imagine even the most hardcore of Hillary supporters in California to jump ship for McCain.
 
close Reblog this comment
Powered by Disqus · Learn more
blog comments powered by Disqus

« The Ahead-Of-His-Time Comedy Of Ernie Kovaks
Cable prices go up, up, up »


By posting comments on The Moderate Voice you are acknowledging and agreeing to the following general comments policy:

(1) The Moderate Voice's comments are hosted by Disqus (http://disqus.com). If your comment doesn't appear immediately, please be patient since it is an off-site system.

(2) All e-mail received from readers by The Moderate Voice is considered intended for publication unless otherwise indicated in the initial message from the writer. Please do not send us attachments unless you contact us and we agree to it.

(3)The Moderate Voice reserves the right to edit all e-mail and posted comments for content, clarity, and length.

(4) Our comment space is reserved for comments that relate to a post's topic. You should not reprint lengthy text from your own works or those of others, including news articles. You MAY link to them.

(5) Comments that are abusive, offensive, contain profane or racist material or violate the terms of service for this blog's host provider will be removed and the author(s) banned from future comments. Such comments also violate the very SPIRIT of this site -- which was created to encourage thoughtful and vigorous discussion among readers who may share differing viewpoints.

(6) All points of view are welcome on The Moderate Voice, with the following exceptions:

(a) Comments posted several times a day with the intent of dominating, re-directing or hijacking the thread by turning a discussion into the equivalent of a bitter shouting match.

(b) Comments posted several times a day that insult or call other commenters or blog writers names or repeatedly make the same point with the effect of or clear intent to annoy other commenters or blog writers.

(7) Name-calling, personal attacks, racist comments or use of profanity by any commenter, whether they are by persons who agree or disagree with the views expressed by The Moderate Voice will NOT be tolerated and will result in the deletion of the comment and the banning of the commenter's ISP address, without notice. In some cases a comment may be deleted and the writer will be given another chance. Commenters who virtually ASK The Moderate Voice to ban them by ignoring any warnings or daring TMV to ban them will quickly get their wish.

(8) Anonymous commenters should identify themselves with the same moniker, so readers know their comments are coming from a single individual. If they don't, they are subject to a banning.

(9)If we have problems with inappropriate or inflammatory comments from a commenter who it turns out gave a fake email address that person is subject to immediate banning.

(10) Quotes from material appearing on The Moderate Voice with attribution are allowed. Reprints are allowed only by permission from The Moderate Voice. You may request permission by e-mail.

(11) The Moderate Voice is a personal site. It is not the Government. It is NOT aligned with any political party. It is NOT promoting any specific candidate for office. It is not a public institution or a media organization. It is not a neutral site. It is intended to express and disseminate the authors' varying points of views. Writers on this weblog WILL take positions. It reserves the right to limit comments to those that, in its view, comport with its stated comment policy. Comments that do not comply are subject to deletion and banning of the author's ISP.

Disclaimer:

--Reading and posting comments at The Moderate Voice constitutes acknowledgment of and agreement to the terms outlined in this comment policy. This comment policy may be revised in part or in full at any time.

--All comments must comport with applicable state and federal laws. The Moderate Voice has no obigation to monitor, edit, censor, or take responsibility for comments. It may or may not act upon a violation of its comment policy once a suspected violation has been brought to its attention. Therefore, commenters are solely responsible for the content of their comments and should ensure that that their comments are lawful and fall within the stated guidelines of both The Moderate Voice and its hosting company.

--The Moderate Voice is not be responsible for injury or liability to any reader or commenter resulting from its own communications or those of commenters, that may be offensive, misleading, inaccurate, illegal, or otherwise unsuitable in the view of the reader. Readers and commenters further agree to indemnify and hold harmless The Moderate Voice from claims resulting from the use of any material appearing on The Moderate Voice which damages the reader, commenter or any other party.

--The Moderate Voice is not responsible for and might disagree with material posted in the comments section. While we strive for accuracy in our posts and DO correct errors, material posted by The Moderate Voice in its posts -- or those left by others in the comments section -- may or may not be accurate.

Read and Post at your own risk.