Final Zogby Tracking Poll: Obama Widens Lead In North Carolina And Statistically Tied With Clinton In Indiana
May 6th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
The final Zogby daily tracking poll gives Democratic Senator Barack Obama a wider lead in his battle with Senator Hillary Clinton in the North Carolina Democratic Presidential primary — but the primary in Indiana remains too close to call:
On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows.
The pair of surveys of the Democratic presidential contests shows Obama with a significant 14-point lead in North Carolina, winning 51% support to Hillary Clinton’s 37%. Another 12% said they were either favoring someone else or were as yet undecided. In Indiana, the race is clear as mud, as Obama holds a statistically insignificant lead of two points, winning 45% support to Clinton’s 43% support, with 12% either undecided or favoring someone else.
The electorates in both states are divided significantly along racial lines, income, and age, the telephone survey shows.
Note that polls are all over the place on these two races. Go here for a list of polls on the North Carolina race. Go here for a list of polls on the Indiana race.
Meanwhile, U.S. News reports that Obama’s campaign is nervous and Clinton’s campaign seems to be again adeptly playing the expectations game:
Ahead of today’s primaries, much of the media is portraying both the Indiana and North Carolina contests as too close to call — though many top analysts see Indiana as a likely Sen. Hillary Clinton victory while Sen. Barack Obama is believed likely to hold his lead in North Carolina.
Obama’s decision to spend much of the day yesterday in North Carolina is taken as a sign that his campaign is concerned that a win there is not a certainty. The Washington Post reports Obama “split his time between” Indiana and North Carolina, “an indication that he, too, sees a tightening race in North Carolina and a close contest in Indiana.” Obama has “struggled at the polls, not winning a single large state since his Wisconsin rout of Clinton on Feb. 18.” The CBS Evening News reported in its lead story that “a quick trip” to North Carolina yesterday “was unavoidable” for Obama, “given that a once double-digit Obama lead has nerve-wrackingly narrowed.”
Meanwhile, The Hill notes that “just as she did before the Pennsylvania primary,” Clinton “is seeking to lower expectations” and “has been effective in setting the bar low. … By setting the expectations low, Clinton’s team hopes to spin a positive outcome into a greater victory.” The Chicago Tribune says the two contests “appear to be the closest since those held a month ago in Texas and Ohio and are vital in Clinton’s efforts to keep her presidential bid, lagging in money and elected delegates, alive.”
A side note to all of this.
Primary elections don’t just impact who is selected to head a ticket but, as the votes occur, they impact the reputations of polling companies. Americans and the increasing number of political junkies love polls. So the real world question is not just come Wednesday morning will Obama or Hillary have won one or both primaries? But also come Wednesday morning will Gallup or Zogby look good or bad?
This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 6th, 2008 at 6:21 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Approval Ratings, Primaries, North Carolina, Indiana, Democratic Party, Barack Obama, 2008 Elections, Polls, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
