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Gallup Daily Tracking: Clinton Pulls Slightly Ahead Of Obama

April 29th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll shows Senator Hillary Clinton now pulling slightly ahead of rival Senator Barack Obama — suggesting that she and others who seek to stop Obama from getting the Democratic nomination now have some of the Wright stuff to use to persuade Superdelegates to tilt to her:

Democrats at the national level remain very closely divided in their preferences for their party’s presidential nomination, with the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update showing 47% favoring Hillary Clinton and 46% supporting Barack Obama.

This marks the fifth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which the two Democratic candidates have been within a point of one another, as well as one of the few times in recent months in which the race has stabilized at the break-even point for more than a day or two. From a broad perspective, this situation marks a loss for Obama, who has generally been in the lead over Clinton for the last month. At the same time, Clinton — coming off of her victory in the Pennsylvania primary, and almost certainly benefiting from the news media focus on controversies surrounding Obama — has been unable to move into a significant lead.

Trending is important. And if this trend continues Clinton will have some data to argue to Superdelegates that she is candidate who could most easily beat presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain (the guy who is watching the Democratic race with a huge smile on his face).

On the other hand, Rasmussen Reports finds the Clinton-Obama race remains stable — although expectations that Obama will be the next President are going south:

The Democratic Presidential Nomination remains stable. It’s Obama 49%, Clinton 41% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Markets data, however, shows Obama’s chances for winning the nomination have slipped four percentage points since yesterday. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 76.0 % chance of victory.

Data from the Rasmussen Markets also shows that expectations for Obama to be the next President have also declined. As of Tuesday morning, expectations for Obama to win the White House were at 44%. That’s down from 49% a week ago and 54% a week-and-a-half ago. The decline is likely the result of both the Pennsylvania Primary results and the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright in the media spotlight. Polling data released yesterday shows that both Republicans and unaffiliated voters are less likely to believe that Obama is a stronger general election candidate than Clinton.

Clinton has unleashed a potential nightmare scenario for the Democrats with her claim to be leading in the popular vote. If Clinton is able to carry such a claim to the convention, it could significantly complicate efforts to unify Democrats for the fall campaign. The only way for Obama to effectively eliminate this potential problem is to do well enough in the remaining primaries so that he wins the popular vote no matter how it is counted.

That’ll be hard for Obama to do with Wright on his back, pounding him on the head and tripping him.

Cartoon by John Darkow, Columbia Daily Tribune, Missouri



This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 29th, 2008 at 12:36 pm and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Primaries, Superdelegates, Indiana, North Carolina, Elections, John McCain, Race, Polls, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Cartoon Commentary, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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    A bit like Kerry's hesitation over punching back during the "swift-boating" situation---although the 55 Swift Boat captains had a lot more integrity & credibility than the millionaire preacher Bling-master Wright-wing conspiracy. His brand of theology is not the "black church." It's his own bummer hitching a ride with Farrakhan.

    Obama's polls have been heading south during the whole Wright 3 Days of klieg light fame. As a result, Obama has finally been forced to uncurl from the fetal position & grown a pair! Now the media can quickly claim that another Obama ally has been thrown off the fantail and BHO will have "put the issue completely behind him" and is "moving on" to his next destination.

    Let's see, he still adores his Kenyan daddy who abandoned him at age two after a bigamous relationship with his mother, but he was too busy to visit mom on her deathbed because of scheduling problems. And his grandma who raised him while his mom was rebigamizing in Indonesia, she said she was sometimes afraid of black men because of the high black crime rate---prima facie proof of her racism. She posthumously walked the plank for that.

    Anyone see a pattern here?
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    "His brand of theology is not the 'black church.'"

    Wright is extremist, tainted with late-1960s-onward radical degeneracy, which was the driving force of so-called "liberation theology" in the Seventies. "Standing in solidarity" with those used as political props to bash Reagan and defend the USSR in the 1980s, which Wright also professed (even worse than the similar "sanctuary" movement) is additional extremist taint. Did he also attack US (never Soviet!) missile silos with hammers or pour blood or other red liquid on them? Did any of his followers? That's a fair, though late, question to ask.
 
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