The Generation Gap

April 29th, 2008
By JAZZ SHAW, Assistant Editor

During a season when most all readings of tea leaves and chicken entrails have spoken of gloom and doom for the Republican party (none of which explain how John McCain seems to be doing so well) yet another factoid is being dumped on the log jam of bad news. There seems to be a generation gap in younger, up and coming voters which shows them skewing heavily toward the Democratic party.

the gap between Dem and GOP party identification is greater today than at any point since the vanguard of the Reagan revolution, when Republicans held a double-digit advantage. Researchers at Pew have put a decade’s worth of data through their analytical minds and come to the conclusion that the leading edge of the Democratic edge is among young voters.

Among voters ages 18 to 29, in 1992 the split was 47 to 46 in favor of the Republicans. Today, Pew Research is showing that same demographic as breaking 58 to 33 in favor of the Democrats. Conventional “wisdom” tells us, though, that younger people tend to be more liberal but as they age, they grow more conservative and drift to the GOP. How do the figures fit in with that theory?

A potential objection: that old canard, that young people are liberal and become more conservative? The historical data doesn’t support it. When Bill Clinton was elected, a plurality of people under 30 identified themselves as Republicans. Same thing when Ronald Reagan was elected.

Well, this isn’t the first time that something “everybody knows” has come into question. But the future is always in flux, and I know that my attitudes and opinins have changed over the years. Will any of this result in significant advantages for the Democrats? Only time will tell, but the Dems have, in the past, shown a remarkable ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Politically, today’s cohort of 18-to-29 year olds came of age during the Bush presidency. It has turned them into Democrats.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 29th, 2008 at 5:35 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Republican Party, Democratic Party, 2008 Elections, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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